It's no secret that AI has become a splitting headache for private equity, or at least for funds that bought big into enterprise software.

• But this isn't just a backward-looking problem, which can be temporarily stemmed by equity markdowns and maturing debt renegotiations.
• Almost every industry big that spoke to Axios at the Milken Global Conference this week said that AI has created massive modeling challenges for new deals, almost regardless of sector.

Private equity is a long-term asset class, typically holding portfolio companies for a minimum of three or four years.

• For context, it has been only 3.5 years since ChatGPT was first released.
• Subsequent AI advancements — including the introductions of Claude, Gemini, etc. — have upended industries.
• Any financial sponsor (or lender) who claims a high degree of confidence in the environment 3.5 years from now is either lying or self-deluded. Even if it partners with a major frontier lab.

"Modeling exit multiples has always involved a lot of guesswork, but now it feels like throwing at a dartboard blindfolded," one private equity veteran said.

• The known unknowns are more pronounced, even in industries that appear AI-resistant or more likely to benefit from the tech than be disintermediated by it.

Private equity has plenty of dry powder, with limited partners continuing to invest despite the DPI drought.

• So new investments will obviously be made. Even if the industry's long-term nature, always one of its greatest strengths, is becoming a material weakness.

Sign up here for the Axios Pro Rata newsletter.

Nearly 10 weeks into the Iran war, there's new — if still anecdotal — evidence that it could bring tailwinds for global uptake of clean energy tech.

Why it matters: The energy shock highlights many nations' vulnerability to the expensive disruption of oil and gas imports — and the security case for diversifying.

Zoom in: Here are a few examples of data points that back the bull case for cleaner power:

🇨🇳 China's solar exports soared in March, per the think tank Ember and the energy research firm BloombergNEF.

• But they both note that it was partly in anticipation of domestic tax changes, which took effect in April, that make exports a little less lucrative.
• "What will be really interesting to see is the April export figures from China," BloombergNEF's Ethan Zindler said via email.

🇰🇷 South Korea's domestic EV sales more than doubled last month compared with March 2025, while solar panel imports were up 137%, per Bloomberg.

🇪🇺 European Union EV sales surged in March, per data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, with the year-over-year growth larger than in January or February.

• Again, keep an eye out for April's data that lands later this month.

What we're watching: EU leaders say they're going to get even more aggressive on electrification plans as a result of the expensive crisis.

• Over $3 billion flowed into exchange-traded funds linked to renewables in April, the FT reports based on Morningstar data, the biggest inflow since January 2021.

Reality check: One is that coal is also seeing a boost in some countries — including South Korea.

• And diversification can also mean oil and gas from other regions.

Sign up here for the Axios Future of Energy newsletter.

If the U.S. stock market is now largely a bet on the AI boom, then South Korea's market is a supersized, turbocharged version of that wager.

Why it matters: Investors' optimism about the promise of AI is global, but such a concentration of wealth in one sector could be risky in a market downturn.

Zoom in: A rally in South Korean AI stocks has now lifted Samsung Electronics, the world's biggest maker of memory chips, to a $1 trillion-plus market value, becoming the second Asian company after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to join that elite club, which also includes Nvidia, Apple and Alphabet, among others.

By the numbers: The gains in Samsung (up 111% this year) and rival memory chip maker SK Hynix (up 144%) have helped lift South Korea's benchmark KOSPI index to new highs.

• The two semiconductor companies account for more than 40% of the KOSPI.
• The index is now up 78% this year, outpacing by far every other major market in the world. Taiwan's blue-chip index is the closest, up 45% this year. (The S&P 500 is up nearly 8% year to date.)
• The KOSPI has already overtaken its own world-beating, record-breaking advance of 2025, when it ended the year up 76%.