President Trump rejected any blame for the stock market's slide this year in a post yesterday: "This is Biden's Stock Market, not Trump's. I didn't take over until January 20th," he wrote on Truth Social.

• But in January 2024, when the market was doing well and he wasn't even president yet, Trump had a different take: "THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP."

Why it matters: It's typically tricky to tie a U.S. president's actions to stock market performance — equities move for all kinds of reasons — but Trump's connection to the ups and downs of U.S. indexes this year is pretty clear cut.

Zoom in: After Trump was elected in November and through his inauguration, investors were giddy at the thought of a Republican administration that would relax regulation and lower taxes. Stocks rose.

• Tariff reality hit after "Liberation Day" when Trump announced broad, high levies on imports from every country in the world. The S&P 500 fell sharply.
• Since then, the markets have seen historic volatility, rising and falling in connection with the news coming out of the administration.
• The markets also fell after Trump suggested he would fire Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, then rose last week when he backed off.

By the numbers: The S&P 500 is down 2.8% since just before the election, 5.3% for the year to date, and 7.1% since inauguration day.

• "On again, off again White House policy announcements have fueled volatility," writes Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

In his post yesterday, Trump said things would get better. "Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers," he wrote.

• "Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden "Overhang." This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. BE PATIENT!!!"

Reality check: Joe Biden left office with a fairly strong economy, though under the hood in late 2024 there were signs of weakening, as Axios' Neil Irwin wrote in March.

The bottom line: If investor faith in Trump was enough to usher in a "TRUMP STOCK MARKET" 16 months ago, then the declining faith of those very same investors is what the "Trump stock market" is now, in May 2025.

Aside from turmoil at home, President Trump is also putting China's economy through a trillion-dollar stress test, and he may not like the result.

Why it matters: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insists China is far more reliant on the U.S. than vice versa, and thus has no choice but to blink first.

• But Chinese President Xi Jinping's disinclination to rush to the table suggests he thinks time is on China's side. We're about to get some indications of who is right.

The big picture: China says it sent around 15% of its exports — worth $525 billion — to the U.S. last year, about three times the amount that flowed in the opposite direction. (U.S. data differs on the total value by nearly $100 billion, but the ratios are about the same.)

• New export orders are already falling sharply, portending empty shelves and price hikes in the U.S. But Bessent has claimed China would be hit far harder, potentially losing 10 million jobs just in the near-term.
• Chinese inflation and retail sales data in the coming weeks should provide the first insights into whether the country could really outlast the U.S. in a prolonged trade war.

Between the lines: China has been endeavoring for years to reduce its reliance on exports to the U.S., and the hunt for alternative markets has taken on a new urgency.

• E-commerce sales for low-cost Chinese retailers have started to tick up in Europe, though the degree to which other markets can replace the U.S. will likely depend on the product.

Beijing has been trying to convince its savings-conscious consumers to buy more of what China produces, highlighting stronger spending as an economic priority.

• The government has been offering vouchers and subsidies directly to consumers, including rebates to trade in old cars and appliances.
• It announced additional measures in March to "vigorously boost consumption" across a range of industries.
• The government is also rallying citizens and corporations with a nationalistic message that China is being unfairly targeted.

Reality check: While China's economy may prove to be more adaptable than Bessent hopes, many ordinary Chinese will undoubtedly be hurt by the trade war, just as many Americans will.

• While it's unclear which side will be hit harder, "Chinese leaders have sort of committed themselves to rolling out stimulus, depending on the economic conditions," according to Tianchen Xu, senior economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit.
• "For example, if the export sector is really struggling and it leads to a substantial rise in unemployment and social stability risks, then I think they will be quite decisive in terms of providing more support."

What to watch: The tariff pain is more likely to translate to swift political pressure in the U.S. than in China because of the nature of the two political systems and because people on both sides know it was Trump, not Xi, who chose this fight.

It's unfortunate that the Trump administration has exhibited such hostility to climate. On the other hand, I did interpret Secretary Bessent's speech on the IMF and World Bank as positive: that the U.S. is continuing to care and promote energy security. The incentives are there. The tax incentives, the costs of renewables, demand for electricity. The terms may be "energy security" as opposed to "emissions reductions," but this is going to continue to be a vibrant sector.

— Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is joining the advisory board of climate-focused venture firm the Angeleno Group, in an exclusive interview with Axios Pro Deals reporter Alan Neuhauser.

For a steady diet of scoops and smart analysis on climate and energy deals, talk to our sales team about Axios Pro Deals.