Axios Markets

September 05, 2024
Welcome back. Today we're talking ethics, oil prices and car sharing. And there are charts! All in 1,030 words, 4 minutes.
1 big thing: The promise of ethical investing


What if the best companies, judged on a moral level, were also, broadly speaking, the best companies judged by the stock market? The chart above suggests that might actually be the case.
Why it matters: The data suggests that ethical investing can deliver impressive risk-adjusted returns — especially if it takes the form of a long/short strategy that shorts the lowest-ranked companies.
The big picture: Since 2018, Just Capital has been surveying tens of thousands of Americans, asking them what traits they value in a company, and then ranking the biggest U.S. companies by those criteria.
- This isn't an ESG ranking: Combating climate change, for instance, only has a 2.2% weight, while paying workers fairly has a 17.7% weight and treating workers well more broadly carries a 42% weight.
- Interestingly, Americans show very few partisan divisions in the answers to Just Capital's questions — what CEO Martin Whittaker calls "kitchen table" issues like job creation and treating customers fairly turn out to be top of the list of corporate priorities for Republicans and Democrats alike.
Between the lines: While Americans' attitudes shift slowly over time, changes in the rankings are much more likely to be a function of what's happening at the level of individual companies, which can improve their performance on any given metric or at least measure it better and report that performance to investors.
Where it stands: The top-rated companies for 2024 are Hewlett-Packard Enterprise, Bank of America, Accenture, Intel and Citigroup.
- Companies like Marathon Petroleum and Duke Energy are also in the top 10%, so this definitely isn't a green index.
- Just Capital doesn't release a ranking for its bottom-rated companies, but it will tell you if any given company is in its bottom 10% overall.
- Some companies in the bottom 10% include wrestling company TKO, Nexstar Media, Mister Car Wash, Planet Fitness, and both Dollar Tree and Dollar General.
By the numbers: If you invested in the top 94 companies≈ the top 10% of the 937 companies in the ranking — on an equal-weighted basis, rebalancing every year to reflect the latest scores, you would have increased your money by 131% between the beginning of 2018 and the end of June 2024.
- That's actually slightly higher than the 128% total return of the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 over the same timeframe, which was boosted by the outperformance of megacap technology stocks.
- The bottom 10% of companies, using the same equal-weighting methodology, would have returned just 47%.
How it works: The two strategies both rise and fall in line with the stock market as a whole, which means a long/short strategy — going long the top-rated companies while shorting the bottom-rated companies — should generate attractive risk-adjusted returns.
- Whittaker says that a product along those lines "is very much on the roadmap" and that he's doing his best to make it happen.
- "Companies that treat their workers badly are a slam dunk for a short strategy," he tells Axios.
What they're saying: "We didn't set out to build an investment strategy," Whittaker says.
- That said, he adds, "the investor part of our strategy is important because it's a very powerful demonstrator of the business case for being just."
The bottom line: The investment strategy of "buy the companies you most admire" turns out to have been a very good one.
2. Why oil's getting cheaper


An unusual mix of forces is pushing oil prices sharply downward as the U.S. election enters its final weeks.
Why it matters: Cheaper oil is likely to keep gasoline prices moving south too, a potential lift for Vice President Kamala Harris, who faces political challenges around inflation.
- "As long as we don't see a major hurricane head into the Gulf," Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis, said in a research note, "the national average could fall below $3 [per gallon] in the next two months."
Where it stands: Brent crude prices are at their lowest levels of the year.
The intrigue: Analysts see several unrelated reasons for the recent declines:
- Weak Chinese economic data keeps arriving.
- Reports of a deal among rival Libyan factions to restore production.
- The end of the U.S. summer driving season.
Catch up quick: OPEC+ said in June it would restore 2.2 million barrels per day over a year starting in October — but emphasized course corrections could arrive along the way.
The bottom line: The cartel's decision-making has long been a see-saw between defending prices and chasing market share.
Unless OPEC+ backs off — and some analysts think it might — oil prices could keep falling.
3. 🚗 Anybody want to drive my car?


Turo, a company that does for cars what Airbnb does for homes, needs to tell a growth story if it's going to get its long-delayed IPO off the ground.
- So, it's partnering with Uber, Axios is first to report.
Why it matters: The 13-year-old company boomed during the pandemic, amid surging demand for car rentals. Now, it's looking to give investors a reason to believe there's still growth in car-sharing.
- The deal also allows Uber to quietly fold a competing car-share service that didn't take off.
The big picture: Turo is designed to let people rent their underutilized car to other drivers.
- Revenue grew 417% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2021, vs. about 10.5% in the same period this year.
- EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) peaked in the third quarter of 2022, at $29 million. It has been negative in two of the last three quarters.
Reality check: Others have tried to do car-sharing, and it didn't go great.
- Getaround was recently delisted from the New York Stock Exchange and pulled out of New York state, citing high insurance costs. Under a new CEO, the company raised $50 million and is trying to regroup.
- Avail, ended its peer-to-peer car sharing operations, but said it's exploring business-to-business partnerships.
- Uber got into the car-share business last year in Australia after acquiring Car Next Door, but its effort to bring the service to Boston and Toronto was short-lived.
The bottom line: Turo's listings will be available on Uber Rent in the U.S., U.K., France, Canada and Australia beginning in early 2025. In the meantime, Uber Car Share customers in Australia may list their cars on Turo's site.
- When Turo shares will be available is anyone's guess.
Editors note: This story was corrected to clarify that Uber Car Share customers in Australia may list their cars on Turo's site until the two companies' software is fully integrated in 2025.
Thanks to Anjelica Tan for copy editing. See you tomorrow!
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