If you bought a diamond this year, there's a very high chance you just got engaged, so congratulations!

• There's also a roughly 50% chance the diamond you bought was manufactured in a laboratory.

Why it matters: Lab-grown diamonds have radically transformed the jewelry market.

The big picture: Two things are happening at once: Lab-grown diamonds are getting more popular as they get cheaper, while people are spending more than ever on natural diamonds.

• On average, the amount being paid for diamonds is higher than it's ever been — and the stones are larger than they've ever been.

By the numbers: For many years pre-pandemic (and pre-lab-grown diamonds), the average engagement ring cost somewhere between $3,200 and $3,600, per Edahn Golan, the managing partner at Tenoris, a diamond industry data company.

• Today, while lab-grown diamonds are cheaper than that, natural diamonds are getting bigger and more expensive, with the average such stone so far this year selling for $6,628. As a result, the average diamond overall sells for about $4,600 — well above the normal level before lab-grown diamonds appeared on the scene.

Where it stands: Because lab-grown diamonds are getting so cheap, buyers are no longer picking out the largest stone they can afford.

• There are lab-grown diamonds as large as 10 carats, but after a certain point they become unwieldy and impractical. Plus, when a middle-class person sports a truly enormous rock, no one will think it's a rare and valuable natural gem, and will have less show-off value as a result.
• The revealed preference in the lab-grown market seems to be converging on diamonds just under 2 carats as the size buyers like the most. The average size for natural diamond engagement rings was 1.4 carats last month, Golan says — about 50% larger than before lab-grown diamonds appeared.

Between the lines: Because lab-grown diamonds are so cheap to manufacture, they have essentially no secondary-market value. Which is to say, once you've bought one, you won't be able to sell it.

• For that reason, most other countries with a culture of buying diamond engagement rings still buy natural diamonds. They might not retain all their value, but at least they'll retain some of it.

The bottom line: Lab-grown diamonds are just as real as natural diamonds. They're just not as rare or unique. So the market has bifurcated, with roughly half of buyers preferring something perfect from a lab, and the other half still preferring something that maybe has romantic flaws.

Lab-grown diamonds are only getting cheaper.

Why it matters: The falling price of lab-grown diamonds is the result of a deliberate pricing strategy by the lab-grown diamond industry, which initially wanted to compete with natural diamonds on the basis of clarity and unsullied provenance.

• Only when that didn't work did they switch to competing mostly on price.

Follow the money: The average lab-grown diamond was 1.2 carats and cost $3,887 in 2020. By 2024, the average size had grown 60% to 1.9 carats, but the average price had fallen by 30% to $2,657.

Between the lines: Even at today's lower prices, however, the profit margins on lab-grown diamonds are enormous.

• The trading price in the diamond industry for a 1-carat lab-grown diamond — the amount paid by the big traders in places like Mumbai or Antwerp — is about $100.
• Jewelry stores will pay about $300 for that diamond, and they will sell it for about $1,000. On a percentage basis, that mark-up is impossible to compete with, but in terms of gross profit they still make more by buying a one-carat natural diamond for $2,700 and selling it for $4,700.

The big picture: A lot of the difference between people who buy natural diamonds and those who buy the lab-grown version is generational, Golan says.

• Older Americans grew up exposed to the legendary "A diamond is forever" marketing campaign, which ran from 1948 to 2008.
• A 28-year-old getting engaged today, however, would have been just 12 when that campaign ended, and will not have the same associations.

Zoom in: Younger American men are also much more likely to go ring shopping with their soon-to-be fiancée, Golan says, while pre-pandemic they were more likely to pick out a ring with the advice of, perhaps, her sister or best friend.

• It turns out that while a woman's loved ones will generally try to persuade a man to spend more, the woman herself will often prefer to save the couple money that could be more fruitfully spent elsewhere.

The bottom line: Frugal Gen Z-ers are happy with cheaper lab-grown diamonds. Older Americans are less likely to want to make the switch.

There's a gender pay gap at the top, but it's flipped. Women CEOs are out-earning their male peers.

Why it matters: Typically, men make more than women.

State of play: Before you start proclaiming that yes, indeed, women can have it all. Becalm yourself.

• This is likely a matter of sample size. There are only about 40 women chief execs in this group — just 7.9% of all CEOs in the index.

By the numbers: Median total compensation for women CEOs at S&P 500 companies was $16.5 million in 2024, compared to $15.6 million for men, per an analysis released Friday of publicly disclosed data.

• There is a similar gap for CEOs at Russell 3000 firms — women's median pay is $6.7 million, compared to $6.1 million for men.

Zoom out: On the whole, men still earn more. The median woman working full-time earned 83% of what the median guy made in 2023, per Census data.

👋 Felix here: After 2,237 days at Axios, I'll be taking the next six weeks off to go hiking, eat a lot of fish, and avoid writing about the election.

Why it matters: Sabbaticals are awesome! I'm certainly very much looking forward to mine.

• Please shower Emily with scoops while I'm gone. She'll be off next week and back on the 21st.
• You also have one day to email me your restaurant recommendations in Kanazawa and Seoul, before I turn off my Axios email notifications.