Axios Macro

June 12, 2025
Today, we look at how federal hiring freezes and long-running funding squeezes may be starting to throttle the flow of government-produced economic data.
- Speaking of which, new wholesale price numbers out this morning support the idea that inflation was well under control through the spring.
Today's newsletter, edited by Ben Berkowitz and copy edited by Katie Lewis, is 756 words, a 3-minute read.
1 big thing: The economy's murkier gauges
The U.S. government produces vast quantities of data about what's happening in every corner of the economy.
- Its ability to do so is facing threats, both from long-running challenges and the impact of Trump administration policies.
The big picture: The agencies that carry out the survey work and other data collection underlying GDP, employment, inflation, and other federal statistics are facing longstanding funding strains, falling survey response rates, and now further federal cutbacks.
- There's no evidence that the reliability of the major data points — the ones that drive Wall Street swings and are relied upon by policymakers — is in question.
- But signs of tension are emerging.
State of play: This spring, the Bureau of Labor Statistics suspended data collection for the Consumer Price Index in three midsize cities (Lincoln, Nebraska; Provo, Utah; and Buffalo, New York). It also eliminated the calculation of 350 subindexes that are part of the Producer Price Index.
- In March, the administration shuttered two outside advisory panels of experts: the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee and the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee.
- Jobs involving survey work and other data collection tend to have high turnover, so a federal hiring freeze means staffing strains are just due to normal attrition, former officials said.
By the numbers: According to a report by the American Statistical Association last year, flagging long-running challenges with collecting economic and other stats, the BLS budget has fallen 19% in inflation-adjusted terms since 2009.
- President Trump's 2026 budget proposal cuts the BLS budget by another 8%.
What they're saying: "They're doing things like reducing the granularity of some of their programs," Erica Groshen, a former BLS commissioner, tells our colleague Emily Peck.
- "They have fewer resources to throw at keeping response rates up," says Groshen, now at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations.
Of note: The administration also proposes merging the BLS (part of the Labor Department) and the BEA and Census (both part of Commerce) into a single statistics agency. There is some merit to the idea, former officials said.
- "There are good reasons to do it," Jed Kolko, a former undersecretary for economic affairs at the Commerce Department, tells Axios. "If you were to design the system from scratch, you would probably have a statistical department that includes most or all of the statistical agencies within the federal government."
- That assumes that the combined agency would not be more vulnerable to major funding cuts or political meddling.
- "What consolidation would mean for resourcing and independence matters more than the abstract org chart question of 'is it rational for them to be together or not?'" Kolko says.
2. Another day of upbeat inflation data


Wholesale price inflation was benign for yet another month in May, following yesterday's better-than-expected consumer price data.
Why it matters: The Producer Price Index, which tracks wholesale prices, is closely watched for signs of trade policy impact on input costs that might ultimately be borne by the consumer.
By the numbers: PPI rose just 0.1% last month, after an outright drop in April. The index rose 2.6% for the 12 months ending in May, ticking up slightly from the 2.5% the prior month.
- Higher margins for vehicle and machinery wholesale — which jumped almost 3% in May alone — were primarily responsible for the 0.1% increase in the services sector.
- Goods sector prices rose 0.2% in May, thanks to rising costs for tobacco products and roasted coffee.
The intrigue: While inflation was mild in aggregate, there might be early hints that tariffs are raising the costs of raw materials.
- In the 12 months ending in May, materials used in production rose by 1.9% — the most in two years.
- The Labor Department said a sharp jump (by almost 5%) in prices for certain metals — including aluminum — was the "major factor" that pushed up an overall index tracking inputs used to manufacture processed goods.
- That might be a result of aluminum tariffs, which were hiked to 25% from 10% in March. Those tariffs were doubled to 50% last week.
- The sub-index of a broad category of non-iron metals can be volatile: It rose by 6% in March before prices fell by half as much in April.
What to watch: The cooler wholesale inflation bodes well for the Federal Reserve's go-to inflation gauge, due out later this month. Components of PPI feed into that measure's calculation.
- With PPI in hand, economists estimate that — excluding food and energy costs — the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose just 0.1% in May, matching the previous month's pace.
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