It's a fine time to have a job — wages are rising and employers, for the most part, aren't laying people off. But it's a terrible time to look for one, with hiring rates the lowest in over a decade.

Why it matters: It's a job market that is frozen in place. Companies are hesitant to shrink or grow their payrolls for fear that they might be caught flatfooted if the economy revs up or unexpectedly slows down. And workers, seeing this tough hiring environment, are less likely to quit their jobs voluntarily.

• The labor market is in stasis, and the question now is how that eventually changes. Will hiring pick up the pace or will layoffs?

What they're saying: "Dissatisfied workers looking for a different job may need to hang tight with their current employer longer than they'd like," Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, wrote in a recent note.

• "There are just fewer opportunities to go around, so those that are available garner stiff competition."

By the numbers: The hiring rate fell to 3.3% in August, the slowest pace since October 2013, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. That rate peaked at 4.6% in late 2021.

• Layoffs are holding at a low rate: 1% in August — lower than at any point before the pandemic.
• Workers are quitting their jobs at the slowest pace since 2015, if you strip out the plunge at the onset of the pandemic — a sign of low confidence in finding a new gig and a sign the post-pandemic Great Resignation of 2021 is very much over.

The big picture: In recent years, it has paid — literally — to switch jobs. Demand for workers was high and supply of them was low, so those changing jobs could demand (and were likely to get) higher pay.

• The job-switching premium is narrowing as the labor market loosens up and employers are less motivated to hire.
• Pay for job-changers was growing about 4 percentage points faster than those who stayed at their job before the pandemic, according to payroll processor ADP. At the height of the quits boom in 2022, the difference was as much as 8 percentage points.
• As of last month, the difference is just 1.9 percentage points.

The bottom line: The rapid job-to-job movement in recent years was unsustainable as companies were constantly training new workers. But the "stuck" labor market signals fewer opportunities for workers to advance and businesses to grow.

• "What this shows is a trend of less dynamism in the labor market," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told reporters today.

Friday morning at 8:30am ET, the Labor Department will release the much-awaited September employment report. It comes as economy-watchers look for clearer signs of whether the job market merely experienced a summer soft patch or is continuing to worsen.

• ADP's latest data on private sector employment, out this morning, points to the "soft patch" theory of the case.

Driving the news: The payroll processor said 143,000 jobs were added in September, up from a revised 103,000 in August. The strongest job gains were in leisure and hospitality, the firm said.

Between the lines: Since the July jobs numbers, released in early August, showed a sharp deceleration in job creation and a rise in the unemployment rate, policymakers and economists have been on high alert for the possibility of a sharper downturn.

• The evidence has been ambiguous since then, confirming the summer weakness apparent in the July data but not offering clear evidence that a bigger labor market slump is imminent.

What they're saying: "When we talk to our clients, some of them say they are on pause, primarily because of two really significant events — the election, and the second one is the Fed," Richardson said, adding that holding pattern might ease in the fourth quarter.

What's next: Forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate more steady-as-she-goes data Friday, with a consensus expectation that the unemployment rate will be unchanged at 4.2% and employers will have added 144,000 jobs in September.