Global trade drama is back, with new tariffs on worldwide allies in the hopper.

Why it matters: This round is quieter. The Truth Social threats have been replaced by a more legally tested, bureaucratic process. Still, it is the clearest sign yet of the Trump administration's commitment to reinstate a tariff regime that was torn down by the Supreme Court.

• The signal to Americans, investors and economic watchers: The tariff inflationary risk is here to stay, even as effects from the Iran war raise prices in other areas hitting household budgets.

The intrigue: The tariff proposals come alongside the Department of Justice formally appealing a court order that extends tariff refunds to all importers, a move that threatens to freeze repayments.

Driving the news: Last night, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer proposed fresh tariffs on 60 economies — covering nearly every major U.S. trading partner — over failures to ban (or enforce blocks on) imports made with forced labor.

• Most of the 60, including China, Japan, South Korea and Brazil, would face a 12.5% rate.
• A smaller group that already restricts forced-labor imports to some degree — among them Canada, Mexico, the European Union and the U.K. — would face 10%.
• The duties are not final: They are subject to a public comment period, as well as hearings that begin next month.

What they're saying: "The failure of our most important trading partners to address the importation of goods made with forced labor is unacceptable. We will no longer tolerate this disparity," Greer said in a statement last night.

Catch up quick: The duties conclude one of two investigations Greer's office launched in March under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.

• A separate probe, examining structural excess manufacturing capacity in 16 economies, including China and the EU, is still open.

The big picture: The duties are part of a patchwork approach to reinstate those overturned earlier this year.

• President Trump's emergency replacement — a 10% global baseline imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act — expires next month. The law caps those tariffs at 150 days, with an extension requiring a sign-off from Congress.
• That flat rate has been a reprieve for some of the hardest-hit partners, including Vietnam.
• Greer signaled earlier this year that the other Section 301 investigations would be wrapped before the expiration, giving a legally sturdier basis to keep tariff pressure on.

What to watch: It has been one of the busiest stretches for tariffs in months, with three actions in the past 48 hours.

• Greer on Monday proposed a 25% tariff on many Brazilian imports after a separate Section 301 investigation determined the nation's practices in a slew of areas — digital trade, electronic payments and more — were unfair.

One action cut in the opposite direction: The same day, the administration eased tariffs on imported farm and construction equipment to 15% from 25% through the end of 2027, relief the White House pitched to farmers squeezed by higher fuel and fertilizer costs.

The bottom line: The trade deals are non-binding frameworks, more Section 301 actions are on deck, and the U.S.-China truce lapses later this fall — leaving businesses to plan around tariffs that are still shifting under them.

• "Some companies may be weighing options to stockpile or front-load their imports to hedge against the uncertainty," Augustine Lo, a trade attorney at Dorsey & Whitney, wrote last night in an email to reporters.
• "It's possible that the tariff rates could go back to the elevated levels seen under the IEEPA tariffs for other countries, and the proposed 12.5% rate under the Tuesday announcement may be only a first step," Lo wrote to Axios.

The Iran war has divided the global outlook into two tracks: A modest slowdown if the conflict ends soon or a severe hit, with some economies near recession, if it drags on and the disruption deepens.

Why it matters: Either path leaves the global economy worse off than before the war, with slower growth and hotter inflation. The scenarios — laid out in new economic projections from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development this morning — determine the scale of the damage.

• "The conflict in the Middle East has become the dominant force shaping the global economic outlook," wrote Stefano Scarpetta, the chief economist of the Paris-based group's latest economic projections.

Between the lines: The OECD's central scenario assumes energy disruptions ease as talks move toward a durable peace. The downside scenario has the conflict dragging through much of next year.

• In the first, the group projects global growth at 2.8% this year, only slightly below the 2.9% projected in March — though absent the war, the OECD says it would have upgraded growth. Growth rebounds to 3.1% in 2027.
• Under a more severe scenario, global growth slows more to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, hitting hardest the economies most reliant on Middle East energy — much of Asia outside China — with Persian Gulf output falling outright.
• G20 inflation is projected to hit 4% this year before easing to 3.1% in 2027; a prolonged war would boost that by an additional 0.4 percentage point this year and 1.3 points in 2027.

The big picture: Both scenarios play out against an AI-boosted economy, with the U.S. the clearest beneficiary as it's more insulated from the energy shock.

• The OECD sees U.S. growth near 2% this year, the strongest in the G7, on "enormous AI-related investment" and resilient spending by higher-income households, before easing to 1.8% in 2027 even as the rest of the world recovers.

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