Axios Macro

May 02, 2025
👀 The White House just dropped its first proposed budget of the Trump 2.0 era, with clues about the administration's spending priorities (but not how it expects taxes, deficits, and the economy to evolve).
- More below, but first, inside the April jobs report and what it suggests about the tariff-hit economy.
🇯🇵 Situational awareness: Japan's top finance official suggested the country — the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries — could use its bond market might in trade negotiations with Trump officials. Go deeper.
Today's newsletter, edited by Ben Berkowitz and copy edited by Katie Lewis, is 786 words, a 3-minute read.
1 big thing: Job market shrugs off trade war (for now)


There is little evidence of trade war pain in the job market, which kept chugging along last month with strong hiring and low levels of joblessness.
Why it matters: If America's economy is buckling under President Trump's trade regime, today's all-important jobs report shows that employers did not get the memo — at least, as of mid-April.
- The data is far from an "all-clear" signal, but it does suggest to policymakers that the economy was on decent footing in the immediate aftermath of the April 2 "Liberation Day."
What they're saying: "In one line: Resilient so far in the face of uncertainty, but a shakeout in goods-related employment looms," said Sam Tombs, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
- "April's payroll report provides a snapshot of labor demand in the run-up to the April 2 tariff announcements, rather than an early assessment of their impact," Tombs added.
By the numbers: There were 177,000 payrolls added last month, slowing just slightly from the 185,000 added in March — which, notably, is about 43,000 payrolls fewer than the Labor Department initially forecast.
- The April gains were on pace with the average monthly gain of 152,000 jobs added over the previous year.
- The unemployment rate held at a historically low 4.2%, while a broader measure of joblessness — which includes workers available for jobs and part-time workers — ticked down.
- The share of employed prime-age workers, those aged between 25-54, rebounded sharply after two straight months of declines. It stands at 80.7%, the largest share since September.
Between the lines: Federal employment continued to decline as Trump pursues government cutbacks. The sector has shed 26,000 jobs since the beginning of the year, including 9,000 fewer payrolls in April.
- But the full DOGE effects are not apparent: The Labor Department classifies those on paid leave or receiving severance as employed.
What to watch: Economists are certain that Trump's trade war will — or might already be starting to — weigh on hiring and the broader economy. Surveys of consumers and businesses support such forecasts.
- The question is when it will begin to show up in the data that helps guide the Federal Reserve's policy decisions.
The intrigue: To estimate the headline payrolls figure, the Labor Department surveys businesses about the pay period that includes April 12.
- "Nearly three-quarters of employees are paid either biweekly, semimonthly or monthly, so they would still count on April payrolls even if employers moved quickly to cut jobs after the April 2 tariff announcements," Tombs wrote.
The bottom line: The U.S. economy is undergoing a massive shift in trade dynamics that have helped shape employment and consumption in recent decades.
- Whatever fallout is ahead could take months to become apparent in economic data.
2. How Trump wants to reshape federal spending
The Trump administration is seeking big-time cuts to the government's spending and a restructuring of where the money goes.
The big picture: That's the upshot of its budget proposal for the 2026 fiscal year, out this morning, which implies austerity across big chunks of the government paired with new money for border protection and defense.
- The president's budget is only a proposal, representing the administration's starting point for negotiations with Congress.
Zoom out: Trump seeks to cut discretionary spending — everything the government does, excluding mandatory programs like Social Security and Medicare — by $163.1 billion, a 10.1% cut from this year's levels.
- That would amount to about half a percent of the projected 2026 GDP. The Congressional Budget Office projects the deficit is on track to be around 5.5% of 2026 GDP.
Yes, but: The so-called "skinny budget," the initial proposal from a new administration, excludes many of the elements that are important to understand the trajectory of fiscal policy in Trump's second term. Officials suggested they would provide an update on those forecasts in a later budget.
- Today's release did not incorporate the tax proposals that are being debated on Capitol Hill, nor changes to the mandatory programs that account for most federal spending.
- The administration also did not release projections for how, under its budget, it expects deficits and the economy to evolve in the years ahead.
By the numbers: The administration's discretionary spending proposals are a story of winners and losers.
- The homeland security budget proposal boosts spending by 64.9%, or $42 billion. It boosts the defense budget by 13.4%, or $113 billion.
- It slashes spending for the State Department and international aid programs by 83.7%, or $49 billion; Housing and Urban Development by 43.6%, or $34 billion; and Health and Human Services by 26.2%, or $33 billion.
The bottom line: The actual path of U.S. fiscal policy will depend on hard-fought congressional negotiations over taxes and spending.
- But the Trump administration is seeking a major reordering of national priorities.
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