This is what the alarmists — the people who have worried that President Trump may seek to undermine the collection of economic data — feared.

The big picture: The president's abrupt firing of the BLS commissioner Friday makes clear that any federal data collector who delivers unwelcome news could lose their job in an instant.

• Economists of all stripes fear a chilling impact.
• The removal "presents risks to the conduct of monetary policy, to financial stability, and to the economic outlook," wrote JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli.

Catch up quick: Friday morning, data came out showing much weaker job growth in the May-through-July period than previously estimated. Friday afternoon, the president fired Erika McEntarfer via a social media post.

• His appointees later argued that this was not punishment for delivering bad news, but driven by a desire for "more transparent and more reliable" data, as National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett put it on "Meet the Press" yesterday.
• He said on Fox News Sunday that the data "have become very unreliable with these massive revisions over the last few years."
• The president's own comments on social media evoked more darkly conspiratorial ideas, such as Friday's claim that "today's Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad."

Reality check: McEntarfer is a two-decade civil servant who was confirmed as BLS commissioner last year with 86 votes in the Senate, including that of now-Vice President JD Vance.

Yes, but: It is true that Friday's revisions were very large by historical standards. That is often true at economic turning points.

• Data revisions are the BLS's commitment to both get its first estimates of what's going on in the economy out promptly, and to make them as accurate as possible once fuller information becomes available.

What they're saying: "These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor—not failure or bias," leaders of the American Economic Association said in a statement Friday.

The intrigue: There are ironies in Trump's claim that the data is rigged, in that the numbers Friday affirmed that key parts of the Trump agenda are working.

• It showed that federal government employment has declined by more than previously reported, consistent with DOGE-driven attempts to shrink federal payroll.
• It also included lower job growth in some sectors known to employ many immigrants with uncertain legal status, namely construction, leisure and hospitality.

Of note: The negative revisions weren't particularly surprising to anyone who had followed a quarterly Census data series based on state employment data. Fed governor Christopher Waller flagged the likelihood of big negative revisions in a speech on July 17.

• Moreover, Trump has argued both that negative revisions to jobs data last year reflected a rigging of the numbers to help former President Biden, and now that negative revisions this year amount to an attempt to damage Trump.

Zoom in: If the president's nominee to lead BLS is widely viewed as a partisan actor who will seek to bend data to the president's will, there are big stakes for markets and policy.

• Consider, for example, the $2.1 trillion market for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. Its returns to investors are determined by the Consumer Price Index, generated by BLS.
• Countless private contracts are indexed to CPI inflation as well.

What's next: The president said yesterday that he expects to name a new BLS commissioner this week. That person will be subject to Senate confirmation.

Viewed narrowly, Fed governor Adriana Kugler's announcement Friday that she will step down at the end of this week simply means one governor out of seven will step down, and just five months early, at that.

• But in reality, this creates high odds that we will learn in short order who the next Fed chief will be, with the likelihood that person will join the central bank well before Jerome Powell's chairmanship ends in May.

Zoom in: Powell's term as a Fed governor runs until 2028. He has been cagey about whether he might consider staying on as a governor after his leadership term ends — declining to comment on the question at the last two news conferences.

• As a result, the Kugler slot is the only vacancy Trump can be sure he'll have to work with in the next year as he looks to install new leadership at the central bank.
• It stands to reason that he would use it on the person he wishes to be Powell's successor, unless he has in mind one of his current Fed board appointees (Waller or Michelle Bowman).
• It doesn't hurt that making life unpleasant for Powell has become something of a primary administration-wide pursuit over the last several weeks.

What they're saying: "Sorry, I do not have any update for you," Powell said last week at a press conference, in response to a question about whether he plans to stay on the board after his term as chair expires.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg last month, "There's been a lot of talk of a shadow Fed chair causing confusion in advance of his or her nomination."
• "I think it'd be very confusing for the market for a former Fed chair to stay on also," Bessent added.

What's next: Trump told reporters yesterday that he will announce his pick to replace Kugler in the days ahead.

• Even if it takes a few months for that person to be confirmed, their words would carry extra weight — essentially the very notion Bessent floated last year to undermine Powell by appointing a shadow Fed chair.