Axios Macro

February 25, 2026
We're struck most by what we didn't hear in last night's State of the Union address: a pivot to offering the kind of micro-focused policy proposals that the Trump administration has floated in recent weeks, aimed at helping families grapple with the cost of living.
- Plus, the latest in the never-ending fallout of the Supreme Court's ruling last week that tossed out President Trump's key tariff tool.
Today's newsletter, edited by Jeffrey Cane and copy edited by Katie Lewis, is 845 words, a 3-minute read.
1 big thing: Trump's affordability non-pivot
Sometimes, presidents use their State of the Union to offer a laundry list of poll-tested policy proposals that might assuage Americans that their concerns are being addressed. Trump chose a different tack last night.
The big picture: The president is sticking to a boastful message about the state of the economy heading into the midterms, aiming to persuade voters that these are the best of economic times.
- It follows a series of proposals floated by the president and his allies, especially around housing and borrowing costs, meant to address Americans' deeply negative views on affordability.
- "The roaring economy is roaring like never before," Trump said last night.
State of play: Remember the president's pitch to cap credit card borrowing costs at 10%? It didn't make the cut in his 10,600-word address.
- He also didn't mention his administration's use of mortgage bond purchases by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to try to push down mortgage rates.
- On housing, however, he did repeat a call for Congress to block large institutional investors from buying up single-family homes, an idea popular on the left but less so among the Republicans who control Congress.
- He was dismissive of Democrats' emphasis on the word affordability, saying, "Their policies created the high prices. Our policies are rapidly ending them," and that "prices are plummeting downward."
Zoom out: Rather than present an I-feel-your-pain message paired with a litany of policy proposals, he argued that things are looking great.
- "The price of eggs is down 60%," he said. "The cost of chicken, butter, fruit, hotels, automobiles, rent is lower today than when I took office by a lot."
- That view does not align with public polling, which has shown sharply negative views about the economy as voters complain about the price of day-to-day purchases.
- The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, for example, was at 56.6 this month, similar to its level during the peak of inflation in 2022 and down from 71.7 when Trump was inaugurated.
What they're saying: "Thematically," wrote Tobin Marcus and Chutong Zhu with Wolfe Research, the president "followed his instinct to persuade voters that America is in a golden age, rather than empathizing with 'affordability' concerns."
- The speech "was full of political theater, but included fewer economic policy proposals than we were expecting," Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel, said in a note.
Reality check: Many of the ideas that the president and his administration have floated had serious political, legal or practical limitations that would limit their ability to calm voter concerns over affordability.
- That's especially true with proposals that would need to be passed in a narrowly divided Congress in an election year.
Yes, but: The Biden administration learned the hard way that the politics of telling voters things are better than they think often doesn't go very well.
2. More tariff uncertainty
Trump sent a clear message last night about tariffs: They are here to stay, in case there was any doubt.
- The new tariffs are "a little more complex, but they're actually probably better, leading to a solution that will be even stronger than before," Trump said, before adding: "Congressional action will not be necessary."
Yes, but: What form they take, when and how they are implemented, and at which rate, will be the source of huge uncertainty for businesses for months to come.
What they're saying: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the current tariffs — implemented at 10%, despite Trump's claim that the rates were increased to 15% — are a bridge to different tariffs down the line.
- "What we're going to do is — the 122s are a bridge for the 150 days," Bessent told NBC News last night, referring to the global tariff rate imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
- Bessent said the U.S. trade representative will open investigations that would allow the administration to "switch over to increase 301s," referring to a separate trade authority that allows the administration to impose tariffs on a country-by-country basis.
The intrigue: The other big question is the process of getting refunds for tariffs paid over the past year that the Supreme Court says are illegal.
- FedEx became the first major corporation to sue for refunds since the court's ruling, joining other companies that have previously done so.
- Bessent said that the refund process lies strictly with the lower courts, though he took a shot at FedEx's efforts to recoup tariff funds.
- "The CEO of FedEx ... have him explain how he's going to get the money back to consumers if he, in fact, passed those costs along," Bessent said.
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