Chinese officials unleashed new plans to restrict access to minerals critical for America's most economically important industries — the latest area in which China is showing its unique sources of leverage in the trade war.

Why it matters: America's aggressive new tariff regime may not be doing quite the damage to the U.S. economy that some warned earlier in the year, but it is not without cost — and the Chinese in particular are using tools they have to apply pressure.

• The expanded export controls are a fresh threat to an already fragile U.S.-China trade truce. It comes as American farmers are reeling from China halting imports of U.S.-grown soybeans.

State of play: "There is no way that China should be allowed to hold the World 'captive,'" Trump posted on Truth Social today in response to the export controls.

• "But the U.S. has Monopoly positions also, much stronger and more far reaching than China's. I have just not chosen to use them, there was never a reason for me to do so — UNTIL NOW!," Trump added.
• Trump threatened to call off a planned meeting with President Xi Jinping of China that's expected later this month.
• Trump said he was "calculating ... a massive increase of Tariffs on Chinese products," among other countermeasures.

The big picture: The rare earths minerals measures have been widely seen as a way to gain leverage ahead of that meeting between Trump and Xi.

• But they also point to the new tension likely to define U.S.-China relations in the years ahead: access to inputs as the world's economic superpowers battle for dominance in key industries, especially AI.
• U.S. export controls that have been strengthened under Trump limit China's access to high-tech chips.

Driving the news: Beijing tightened its grip on rare earths on Thursday, with intentions to slap export controls on more key elements and any products that contain them.

• The announcement, which builds on other export controls introduced in April, is a blow to a slew of sectors, including the semiconductor and defense industries.
• No other country has more control over the production and processing of the world's rare earths supply.
• The issue came to a head earlier this year. A temporary trade truce nearly fell apart when Trump officials accused Beijing of withholding the minerals.

The intrigue: Some of China's export controls begin to take effect in November, before the latest 90-day extension of the U.S.-China trade truce is set to expire.

• "China is signaling 'we're willing to threaten your primary growth driver,'" which is AI, says Chris Miller, the author of "Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology."
• "I think people are looking to see whether the Trump administration builds alternative sources of leverage against China that forces them to back down," Miller tells Axios.

Context: Miller says China is in the "early stages" of testing how impactful its export licenses can be.

• "It's clear they can be impactful in the short run because it takes time to build up processing facilities for rare earths," he says.
• "I think we're going to see that, in the longer run, China is not going to have a durable monopoly on rare earth processing."

A Trump administration official told Axios' Emily Peck last night that the government is recalling some furloughed workers to compile a key inflation report.

Why it matters: The September Consumer Price Index is particularly critical because it is used to calculate the annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients — and it will now be released on Oct. 24, despite the shutdown.

The big picture: The government shutdown lapsed funding for key agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is responsible for releasing CPI, the monthly jobs report and other economic indicators.

• That means all work on the price data was halted indefinitely.

Between the lines: The worker recall, first reported by the New York Times, means that economists will receive data on how quickly prices rose last month sooner than previously believed — though not in time for Oct. 15, when the report was originally scheduled to be released.

• The adjustment is based on the change in CPI for wage earners from the third quarter of 2024 through the third quarter of 2025.

The intrigue: The Federal Reserve will begin its two-day policy meeting on Oct. 28, meaning officials will have the September CPI report in hand before their interest rate decision.

• It's unclear how that could complicate decision-making for Fed officials worried that tariff-related price increases might result in stickier inflation.
• Minutes from the September policy meeting showed that a "few participants stated there was merit in keeping the federal funds rate unchanged at this meeting or that they could have supported such a decision."