We've made it to Wednesday.

🌧️ Today's weather: Isolated showers and thunderstorms with a high of 79 and a low of 65.

🎂 Happy birthday to our member Trevor Foughty!

Today's newsletter is 1,107 words — a 4-minute read.

Carmel officials are monitoring a flurry of unknowns to determine how disruptive flooding recovery efforts could become.

Why it matters: Despite falling water levels, the most consequential effects for Carmel could still unfold as floodwaters reshape the landscape, threaten critical infrastructure, and create new public safety risks for residents.

Driving the news: A flood-battered section of Blue Woods Creek has been flowing backward toward the Martin Marietta quarry since Saturday.

• Erosion moved nearly 200 feet toward the White River in a single night, according to Carmel city engineer Brad Pease.

The latest: As of Tuesday morning, crews had temporarily stabilized riverbanks to redirect fast-moving water and slow channel cutting.

• On Monday night, Pease put the odds of the channels connecting at roughly 75%, down slightly from an earlier estimate.
• If they connect, the White River could temporarily divert into the quarry, which can hold about 9 billion gallons of water.

Meanwhile, the damaged Hazel Dell Parkway bridge has been deemed a total loss and will need to be replaced, according to Hamilton County Commissioner Christine Altman.

• Officials are exploring an accelerated design-build approach to get traffic restored faster.

Zoom in: The discharge of raw sewage is also a concern. Two wastewater force mains sit 8-10 feet beneath the former creek bed and carry sewage from about 90% of Carmel's service area.

• If the shifting channel exposes them, failure is highly likely, officials say. Crews are working with contractors on a bypass, but the solution could take several days.

Yes, but: Drinking water remains safe, with no boil order in effect.

What's next: Figuring out how much all of this damage is going to cost.

• Carmel Mayor Sue Finkam said an overall financial impact estimate remains unavailable because of the uncertainties.
• “I would say it probably starts with a B, though,” she said.

Go deeper

Everything. That's what several residents of the Ravenswood neighborhood told volunteers they needed help with when cleanup efforts began Tuesday morning.

Why it matters: The north-side neighborhood was one of the hardest hit by last weekend's disastrous floods, so inundated that some areas are still inaccessible.

The big picture: Recovery will be measured in weeks and months, rather than days, for areas where water washed away roads and rose to rooflines.

Zoom in: Mayor Joe Hogsett toured Ravenswood on Tuesday and told Axios the challenges are extensive but, "I want the residents of Indianapolis to know the city is ready, willing and able to do anything and everything we can to address their immediate needs."

• "I also don't want to sow the seeds of false hope," says Hogsett. "This is going to take a while, and the damages that we sustained over the course of the last week have been profound."

What they're saying: "I have been in this neighborhood 53 years, and I've seen floods. … This was just like no other," Michele Lowe tells Axios. She was at Riverwood Park on Tuesday with her French bulldog, Romeo, looking for help pumping out the water still filling her basement.

State of play: Pumps and hoses are some of the biggest needs, said Ashlee York, a volunteer helping coordinate assistance efforts.

• Aside from moving water, needs vary, she said.
• "Some people need help with demolition. Some people need help with supplies," York tells Axios. "Some people just need support."
• Donations for the Ravenswood community are being taken at Glendale Christian Church.
• Box fans, cleaning supplies (including mops, buckets, gloves, sponges and bleach) and laundry detergent are some of the biggest needs.

What's next

🐘 Sen. Chris Garten (R-Charlestown) has been endorsed by the Senate's Republican caucus, all but guaranteeing the two-term conservative will succeed President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray (R-Martinsville) in leading the body.

• Garten and others in the party split with Bray over President Trump's redistricting push. (Indiana Capital Chronicle)

⛔️ Recreation on the White River is banned in Hamilton County for at least the next week while erosion around the washed-out Hazel Dell Parkway bridge and Blue Woods Creek is altering the course of the river and causing dangerous conditions that could pull water-goers into the Martin Marietta quarry. (Larry in Fishers)

🏫 While state law would require the Indianapolis Public Education Corporation share referendum dollars with participating charter schools if this November's ballot measure passes, it's unclear how many of those schools plan to use the money. (Chalkbeat Indiana)

The Great Flood of 1913 drowned West Indianapolis, destroyed the Washington Street bridge and forced 7,000 families from their homes.

Why it matters: Floodwaters that tore through the Hoosier state 113 years ago provided a benchmark for every subsequent flood.

• Last week, in the middle of summer with no snowmelt to blame, the White River blew past it.

Driving the (old) news: Six inches of rain fell on Indianapolis over five days starting on Easter Sunday, March 23, 1913. Areas north of the city got up to 12 inches.

By the numbers: The White River crested near downtown at an estimated 31.5 feet — 19.5 feet above flood stage — though the true peak is unknown because the gauge was washed away overnight between March 25 and March 26.

• A levee failure near Kentucky Avenue sent a 25-foot wall of water through a half-mile-wide swath of the near west side, forcing 4,000 residents to flee.

The latest: The White River at Anderson crested at 24.93 feet last week, topping the record set in 1913 of 23.6 feet.

• Noblesville broke its own 1913 record of 23.8 feet, cresting near 24.5 feet.
• Indianapolis saw its worst flooding in more than 30 years, with the river cresting around 21.18 feet.

Keep reading

It's been a tough week.

Yes, but: At least the sun isn't setting before 8pm yet.

The big picture: Large swaths of the country have already said "sayonara" to long summer nights and are flipping on porch lights long before we're thinking about coming inside and sitting down to dinner.

Zoom in: Central and eastern Indiana have some of the latest summer sunsets in the lower 48 states — it won't set before 8pm until mid-September.

• Tonight, we're looking at sunset around 8:36pm.

💭 Our thought bubble: When it feels like Mother Nature's kicked you in the teeth lately, a little extra daylight's not nothing.

Our picks:

🫶 Arika is moved by the show of support she saw in Ravenswood yesterday. Keep showing up, Indy.

🤝 Justin is gathering items to donate in support of flood victims.