Texans' enrollment in Affordable Care Act health insurance is exceeding the expectations of health policy experts who worried it would plummet when enhanced federal subsidies expired.

Why it matters: Texas has the highest rate of uninsured people in the nation.

Driving the news: Today is the last day to sign up for a marketplace plan.

The big picture: The ACA enhanced tax credits, introduced during the COVID pandemic, expired at the end of 2025. They were the main sticking point in the federal government shutdown last fall.

• Experts warned that without the subsidies, Texas' uninsured rate could rise as people faced increased premium costs.

The latest: More than 4.1 million Texans enrolled in an ACA plan as of Jan. 3, per Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services data released Monday. That's about a 6.5% increase over the same time last year.

• Texas is outpacing enrollments nationwide, which dipped by about 834,000 signups, or 3.5%, when compared to the same timeframe.

Yes, but: The data does not specify how many Texans are new to the marketplace, were automatically re-enrolled or selected new coverage plans.

What they're saying: Premium costs are rising, but the impact on many people isn't as big as some suspected, says Charles Miller, director of health and economic mobility policy at Texas 2036, a policy research nonprofit.

• People tend to think marketplace plans will be more expensive than they actually are, which causes them to not even consider enrolling, Miller tells Axios.

By the numbers: Every Texas enrollee earning at or below 200% of the federal poverty level — about $60,000 for a family of four and $30,000 for a single person — can sign up for at least one marketplace plan with a $0 premium for 2026, per Texas 2036.

Zoom in: In Harris County, a single 40-year-old person earning about $38,000 can still find plans ranging from $37 to $248 per month, per Texas 2036 estimates.

The bottom line: "With the subsidies expiring, plans are getting more expensive," Miller says. "We just want to make sure that people … are aware that affordable options still exist."

Texas employment growth has stalled, per a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Why it matters: Texas is looking a lot like the national job market: Firing has slowed but so has hiring.

The big picture: The national unemployment rate reached a four-year high of 4.5% in November but dropped in December to 4.4%, signaling hiring in the final month of the year.

• Texas has maintained a lower unemployment rate than the rest of the country over the past year, hovering around 4.2% in November, per the latest from the Texas Workforce Commission.

Zoom in: The Houston metro region has a slightly higher unemployment rate of 4.5%.

• But Houston's unemployment rate is improving from its recent 5% peak in August, per a Greater Houston Partnership analysis.

State of play: The state's labor force grew in the last year, adding more than 206,000 people, but unemployment has also increased, according to the Workforce Commission.

• The Dallas Fed's employment forecast estimates Texas lost 2,200 jobs last year, largely due to a weak fourth quarter.

What they're saying: "Higher productivity is suppressing labor demand, and less immigration is constraining labor supply," senior business economist Luis Torres said in the Dallas Fed report.

🌏 The Netherlands is Houston's top international trade partner — and the relationship is accelerating, according to the Dutch ambassador to the U.S. (Houston Business Journal)

🎥 Houston filmmaker Tracie Laymon's "Bob Trevino Likes it" is earning early Oscar buzz. (Variety)

🎨 A mural of Malala Yousafzai near Houston's Heights neighborhood was vandalized again. City Council member Abbie Kamin has committed to funding its restoration. (Houston Public Media)

🎻 Listen to the Monarch Chamber Players as you stroll through the Museum of Fine Arts Houston.

• The performance is included with museum admission. 6:30pm tomorrow.

🐶 Find your next four-legged friend at the Houston Pets Alive Adopt-a-Palooza.

• Adoption fees are a reduced $50. 11am-2pm Saturday.

🖼️ Be inspired at the 11th annual 10x10 Art Show featuring 2D and 3D works at The Hardy & Nance Studios.

• Free. 2-10pm Saturday.

🎉 Take the kids to the MATCH Family Fun Day featuring performances, activities and other festivities.

• Free. 1-5pm Sunday.

🤘 Shop till you drop at the Punk Rock Garage Sale's New Year's Market at Bad Astronaut Brewing.

• 2-6pm Sunday.

👋 Shafaq here! I was blown away by a recent brunch, and I cannot stop talking about it.

Dig in: Mayahuel opened last summer in Autry Park and blends traditional and modern flavors of Mexico City.

• You can spot the CDMX influence right away. From the design to the menu — particularly, it feels like you're in Roma Norte or La Condesa neighborhoods.

My experience: I came, I devoured, and I'm already planning my return — for dinner.

• Acclaimed chef Luis Robledo Richards (who was a judge on Netflix's "Sugar Rush") has pastry-chef roots, and it shows. The inside of the concha ($6.80) was soft and fluffy, and the cinnamon roll ($6.80) was huge, tender, and even better dipped into the Mexican hot chocolate.
• As for the meal, the shakshuka ($18) actually had a kick — delicious. And you can't skip the chilaquiles ($18). Mayahuel's version combined the red and green salsas into one rich bite.

If you go: 811 Buffalo Park Drive, Suite 130