House Speaker Mike Johnson wants to hold a conspicuously early vote on a short-term funding bill next week — more than two months before the government runs out of money.

Why it matters: Johnson may be setting himself up to win in September by losing in July.

• A failed vote on a short-term spending stopgap could potentially strengthen the GOP leader's hand in another difficult challenge: securing $67 billion for the Pentagon to replenish its munitions through the reconciliation process, according to conservative lawmakers.

⚡️ An early defeat on a continuing resolution would give Johnson a pretext to shoehorn a spending stopgap bill into a September reconciliation package.

• Call it Reconciliation 3.0 Plus.
• "The Dems know, 'OK, if we don't do the CR, we'll do it in a [reconciliation] bill," Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) told us.

👀 What we're watching: Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune are on starkly different wavelengths when it comes to a third reconciliation package.

• 🤔 "You've got to think long and hard about this. It's a much easier proposition in the House," Thune said today.
• But pairing a continuing resolution with reconciliation could have two advantages. First, it makes it harder for House Republicans to oppose the package.
• It would also present the Senate with a take-it-or-leave-it choice: accept the House reconciliation bill or share the blame for a government shutdown.

Zoom out: Republicans are increasingly worried about spending the final month of the midterm campaign defending a government shutdown.

• House Republicans have little confidence Democrats will provide the votes needed to pass a funding extension.
• The planned July vote is designed to put both Democrats and the Senate on notice that Republicans don't believe they can count on bipartisan support for a continuing resolution.

The other side: GOP senators are deeply skeptical about pivoting to a CR in July.

• They want to give the regular appropriations process time to work. And they are aware that public talk of a stopgap measure risks undercutting bipartisan negotiations over full-year spending bills.

🚗 Driving the news: Johnson said today he plans to bring a clean continuing resolution to the House floor next week before lawmakers leave for the August recess. (The Senate is scheduled to remain in session for two additional weeks.)

• But there's little reason to believe it will pass.
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries didn't rule out Democratic support for a clean CR but warned Republicans against taking a "my-way-or-the-highway approach."
• Meanwhile, some conservatives are threatening to oppose any must-pass spending bill that doesn't include the SAVE America Act. Johnson told reporters he "hasn't decided" whether to attach the measure.

Between the lines: Conservatives have been pushing leaders to use reconciliation to fund parts of the government, and a failed CR vote could give Johnson political cover with frustrated appropriators.

• But the strategy has its detractors.
• "I've heard it talked about, and I think it's a bad idea," Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), an Appropriations Committee member, told us last month about using reconciliation for appropriations.

Yes, but: That entire strategy rests on Republicans actually passing a third reconciliation bill — a prospect about which many lawmakers remain skeptical.

The bottom line: Even if the continuing resolution fails, forcing the vote allows Johnson to argue that Republicans exhausted the normal appropriations process before turning to reconciliation.

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— Kate Santaliz and Hans Nichols

Outside super PACs backing Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) are outspending Abdul El-Sayed on television by more than 12 to 1 during the final five weeks of Michigan's Democratic Senate primary.

• The total: $26.9 million for Stevens versus $2.1 million for El-Sayed, from July 1 to the Aug. 4 primary, according to AdImpact.

Why it matters: That's a massive cash advantage in an expensive state — and it underscores how outside groups have reshaped the race's closing stretch in what is turning into a proxy war for the future of the Democratic Party.

🧮 By the numbers: A constellation of super PACs is fueling Stevens' advertising blitz.

• United Democracy Project, the AIPAC-affiliated super PAC, has reserved roughly $19 million in broadcast television ad time in the closing five weeks, according to AdImpact.
• A Stronger Michigan, a pro-Stevens super PAC, has reserved about $5 million.
• Unite to Win, a new super PAC working for Stevens, has reserved another $2 million.

On El-Sayed's side:

• Fighting for Michigan, a super PAC supporting El-Sayed that planned to spend millions in direct mail, digital advertising and organizing, has reserved $375,000 for broadcast television.
• The El-Sayed campaign itself has spent or reserved roughly $1.7 million.

💬 What they're saying: "Congresswoman Stevens is relying on massive outside spending from AIPAC and Trump-aligned billionaires to manufacture momentum," El-Sayed spokesperson Roxie Richner said in a statement.

• "This race is truly the many versus the money."

State of play: The spending gap was already lopsided a month ago, when Stevens and her allies had booked roughly $17 million in advertising, compared with about $2.1 million for El-Sayed.

• The race narrowed from three candidates to two after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow ended her campaign in early June.
• A Detroit News poll published Tuesday shows Stevens leading El-Sayed, 48% to 41%.

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— Hans Nichols