Senate Democrats are prepared to vote tomorrow to keep the government open, with not much to show for it.

Why it matters: The outcome will spark the fury of many Democrats and the grassroots of the party, who have lobbied this week for the lawmakers to block the funding bill.

• But it tracks with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's longstanding advice to senators that it's bad politics to shut down the government.

Schumer privately told his colleagues today he plans to help break the filibuster on the GOP-led government funding bill, sources told us. The New York Times was first to report on his comments.

• "While the CR bill is very bad, the potential for a shutdown has consequences for America that are much, much worse," Schumer said tonight on the Senate floor.
• "I think people in my caucus are going to make their decisions and I am going to make mine," Schumer told reporters tonight.

❌ Most of Schumer's colleagues will vote against him.

• But Senate Democrats only need to provide eight votes to keep the government open.

Democrats are expected to get amendment votes on the bill, which will give the party members some cover in voting for the package.

• The GOP expects the Democratic votes it needs will come from senators up for tough 2026 races as well as those who are retiring, as we told you last week.

The other side: Their House colleagues aren't buying it. "Those games won't fool anyone. It won't trick voters, it won't trick House members. People will not forget it," Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) wrote today on X about a 30-day CR amendment vote.

• "Senate Republicans should back down from screwing over their own constituents," said Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas). "Democrats were elected to fight for working people, not put up a fake fight."
• House Democrats were almost unanimous in opposition on Tuesday. Only Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) voted for the bill.

What's next: Schumer and Senate GOP leader John Thune will need a time agreement to speed up the vote.

The bottom line: Schumer ensured he'll be the main Democratic villain of this week's drama. But he'll spare his party the pain of a shutdown and the political consequences no one can predict.

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— Stephen Neukam and Hans Nichols

House Republicans are salivating over their chances in purple seats thanks to ambitious Democrats eyeing newly open Senate slots.

Why it matters: Swing-seat survivors are very attractive in statewide races, including to Schumer and the DSCC.

• But their (potential) loss in the House is a headache for Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and the DCCC.

Zoom in: The current House map is tight, with fewer than two dozen true toss-ups. And the list of likely House Democratic exits is growing fast.

• New Hampshire: Reps. Chris Pappas and Maggie Goodlander are interested in retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's seat. Trump lost both of those districts narrowly in the 2024 election.
• Michigan: With former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg taking a pass this morning on the Michigan Senate race, Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who just won a Trump district, may make a play for Senate.
• Ohio: Reps. Greg Landsman and Emilia Sykes are eyeing the race to take on the newly appointed GOP Sen. Jon Husted.

The other side: Republicans face a similar dynamic with governor's races.

• New York: Rep. Mike Lawler, who represents a district won by Kamala Harris, is making moves to challenge Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.
• Michigan: Rep. John James is being encouraged to jump into his state's gubernatorial contest.
• Arizona: Rep. Juan Ciscomani has ruled out a governor's race, but Democrats are hopeful he'll reconsider and put his purple district in play.

What they're saying: "The math is in our favor," said NRCC Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.). "We will capitalize on this momentum on the battleground and retain and grow our Republican majority."

• "House Democrats' overperformance last cycle proves no one is better at recruiting and working to elect genuine and authentic candidates than the DCCC — and we'll do it again this cycle," said DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton.

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— Hans Nichols and Andrew Solender

GOP senators showed today they're less willing to bend for RFK Jr.'s lieutenants than RFK Jr. himself.

• Axios Pro's Caitlin Owens scooped this morning that the White House was withdrawing its nomination for former Rep. Dave Weldon to run the CDC. His confirmation hearing was scheduled for today.

Why it matters: The fight over vaccines is still a big point of contention in the GOP. Weldon is an internal medicine doctor who sponsored a bill that would have banned mercury from vaccines.

• "Some of us who had some concerns with [Kennedy's] previous statements got past that because we believe that scientists running some of these three-letter health agencies are going to be driven by data," said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), per Axios Pro.
• Tillis, as well as Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), had concerns with Weldon's nomination, they said today.
• Collins shared her concerns with Kennedy, the WSJ reported.

Weldon said he assumed his nomination was withdrawn because Senate HELP Chair Bill Cassidy (R-La.) was going to vote "no."