Axios Hill Leaders

November 04, 2025
Welcome to November! Tonight's edition is 913 words, 3.5 minutes.
- π Off-ramp in sight
- π New House "gang" on health care
- πΌ Scoop: Trump orders more Venezuela briefings
- π One year out: How the midterm polling compares
Happening in D.C. this week: Join Axios' Tina Reed and Peter Sullivan on Thursday, Nov. 6, at 8am ET for an event on the future of Alzheimer's care. RSVP here.
1 big thing: π Off-ramp in sight
The contours of a three-legged plan to end the government shutdown came into sharper focus today, senators and aides told us.
Why it matters: Two of the plan's three pillars β a vote on Affordable Care Act tax credits and a new short-term funding bill β include significant question marks. But the optimism today was unmistakable.
- "I think we're getting close to an off-ramp here," Senate Majority Leader John Thune said.
- "Now the challenge is to get leaders of both parties and both chambers to actually talk to each other," Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) told us.
- "They're trying again, and they seem more optimistic," Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) told reporters.
Reality check: GOP senators are at odds over the length of the next continuing resolution. The December-vs.-January debate we told you about last week is far from resolved.
- "The longer sort of runway there is," the better, Thune said today.
- If there's a deal, the House would have to come back late this week to approve a spending bill that goes beyond Nov. 21.
"The day is going to have to change," Thune said.
- "Mine is Dec. 19," Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) told reporters. "My worry is that if we go into January β¦ we'll end up with a disastrous yearlong CR."
- "Completely agree with @SenRickScott on extending a CR well beyond the New Year," Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said on X.
What we're hearing: While Republicans are willing to give Democrats a vote on the health care tax credits, it's unclear if it will require a 60-vote threshold β or just a simple majority.
- Fifty is possible but will require an agreement between Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. They haven't been particularly chatty with each other.
- Senate GOP leadership outlined the concept of a deal at a meeting with legislative directors earlier in the day, according to people familiar with the matter.
- The plan's third leg seems like the easiest lift: passing a "mini-bus" to fund military construction, legislative affairs and agriculture. It would provide proof of concept that appropriators can still do full-year bills.
The bottom line: After a weekend of frequent phone calls among centrist senators, Democrats appeared ready to claim victory and end the shutdown.
- "What they've been saying for a month is 'We won't negotiate with you at all,'" Coons told us. "That's clearly a position they've moved away from."
- The gist: A handful of Democrats will supply some eight votes for a new short-term CR in exchange for a promised vote on the ACA tax credits.
β Hans Nichols, Stephen Neukam and Stef Kight
2. New House "gang" on health care
A bipartisan group of four House centrist lawmakers released a broad outline today for a potential compromise on ACA tax credits.
- The Enhanced Premium Tax Credits would be extended for two years, with a phased-out income cap for those making between $200,000 and $400,000 a year.
Why it matters: The coordination among Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.) and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.)Β is the latest signal that lawmakers in both parties are fed up with the shutdown.
- The proposal includes several reforms, including requiring ACA marketplaces to confirm recipients haven't died, creating a new standard for cracking down on fraud and providing more transparency into the value of recipients' tax credits.
What we're hearing: A House Democratic leadership aide did not dismiss the proposal, telling us that a set of ideas is never a bad idea to consider.
- A House Republican familiar with GOP leadership discussions told us last week that new restrictions, like income verification and caps, were under consideration.
β Andrew Solender and Kate Santaliz
3. πΌ Scoop: Trump orders more Venezuela briefings
Trump is directing staff to brief more members of Congress on his administration's aggressive anti-narcotics tactics in the Caribbean and Pacific, we scooped this afternoon.
- "I keep getting calls about this from congressmen," Trump explained in a recent meeting with top officials.
Zoom in: Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with Pentagon lawyers in tow, is scheduled on Wednesday to brief lawmakers on Capitol Hill, a source told us.
- Rubio has provided at least one briefing in which the issue was addressed to the "Gang of Eight," the majority and minority leaders of both chambers of Congress as well as the chairs and vice chairs of the Intelligence committees, three sources told us.
Between the lines: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), the top Democrat on the Intel committee, called a GOP-only briefing last week "indefensible and dangerous."
- Republicans also pushed back, arguing briefings of that nature should be bipartisan.
- A bipartisan briefing the very next day for the House's Armed Services panel left many Democrats unsatisfied with the administration's legal explanations for their actions.
β Marc Caputo and Stef Kight
4. π One year out: How the midterm polling compares


The Democratic polling lead is nowhere close to its levels before the 2018 blue wave that followed Trump's first year in office, according to the average of generic polling by Real Clear Politics.
- But the gap is greater than a year before the 2022 midterm elections, when Republicans took back control of the House.
β Stef Kight
This newsletter was edited by Justin Green and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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