Discharge petitions are threatening to rip House Republicans apart, making life harder for Speaker Mike Johnson as he works to avoid a government shutdown at the end of this month.

Why it matters: Johnson has had the numbers on his side to play for time. But that's about to change, thanks to a pair of special elections that favor Democrats.

• In Virginia's race to succeed the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), Democrat James Walkinshaw is expected to win easily.
• In Arizona, Democrat Adelita Grijalva is the favorite in the race to succeed her late father Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.).

Zoom in: With Johnson's tighter new margin, the three deadlines look like spicy showdowns.

1. 🥊 Epstein files: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is all but certain to force a House vote on the Epstein files by the end of this month, unless the White House can flip away one of the Republicans who've already signed. Walkinshaw and Grijalva say they'll sign when they take office.
2. 💣 Stock trading ban: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) has given Johnson an end-of-the month deadline on a congressional stock trading ban discharge petition, which President Trump praised on Truth Social.
3. 💰 Government shutdown: Government funding runs out at the end of the month. House Democrats are in no mood to help.

Zoom in: Many House Republicans are torn between their base's demand for transparency around the Epstein case and Trump's insistence that the matter be dropped.

• The White House has been privately pressuring Republican lawmakers not to sign onto the discharge petition, according to Massie and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).
• Johnson has also publicly opposed the discharge petition, which would undermine his control of the floor.

Between the lines: Trump and Johnson aren't out of options on Epstein.

• The White House could try to pressure one of the four Republicans who have signed on to the petition to withdraw their signatures.
• Johnson has in the past tucked language in party-line procedural measures to kill discharge petitions. He faced blowback when he employed the tactic to quash a proxy voting discharge petition in April, but he used the ensuing stalemate to negotiate a quiet end to the issue.

Go deeper: House Oversight receives Epstein birthday book

— Andrew Solender

Convincing Republicans to extend the subsidies for the Affordable Care Act's health insurance exchanges will be "very, very hard," House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith told us.

• "There's never been a Republican in the House or the Senate that has voted for those premium tax credits, either in committee or any time throughout the process," Smith said.

Why it matters: It will be a much easier pill to swallow if Trump demands they do it.

• "I know that the Democrats are asking for it," Smith said about attaching the health care subsidies to a year-end spending bill in a grand bargain with Democrats.
• "I don't know what's going to happen to fund the government," Smith said. "So that's why I have to hedge, because the administration may negotiate something,"
• "The president's the best whip in Congress," he added.

State of play: The issue pits the GOP's deep ideological antipathy for Obamacare against three immediate political realities for the party.

1. Some 24 million Americans rely on the Affordable Care Act exchanges to purchase health insurance.
2. Those premiums will skyrocket by an average of 75% for enrollees if Congress doesn't reauthorize the enhanced tax credits, according to a study by KFF.
3. Republicans continue to defend the "one, big beautiful bill," against persistent Democratic attacks that it will cut Medicaid benefits across the country.

The enhanced subsidies, which former President Biden initially included in a 2021 pandemic package and then re-upped in the Inflation Reduction Act, are set to expire at the end of the year.

• It will cost some $335 billion over 10 years to extend the subsidies.
• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is calling on health insurers to warn their enrollees about the coming price hike for some of the enrollees.

Driving the news: Johnson opened the door to reauthorizing the subsidies in an interview last week after 10 vulnerable House Republicans called for the tax credits to be extended.

• One of Trump's pollsters has warned that the expiration is the GOP's "greatest midterm threat."
• "I don't love the policy, OK? But I understand the political realities and the realities of people on the ground. And this is real to folks," Johnson told Punchbowl News.

What's next: Smith said on Friday that he hadn't spoken to Trump about a potential deal yet.

• The White House has yet to take an official position.

— Hans Nichols

House Conference Chair Lisa McClain will bring the "Ruthless" fellas to the GOP conference tomorrow to discuss how to connect with the conservative base and younger voters.

• Why it matters: The "Ruthless" podcast has done a "College GameDay"-style show ahead of a GOP presidential debate. Now they are going inside the Capitol to talk to GOP lawmakers about new media.

Zoom out: Earlier this summer Fox News reached a business and editorial licensing deal with the "Ruthless" podcast, a variety program hosted by veteran Republican staffers.

• The show uses a combination of irreverence and insider knowledge to break down campaigns, the news of the day, often hitting stories that are ignored by the mainstream media.
• There's also sports and family talk.
• Fox News has created a "new media" division that will house all of its opinion and non-news podcasts, as it invests more in that type of audio programming.

The other side: Democrats have also brought in their media darlings to brief lawmakers, with Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson discussing their "Abundance" book at a Senate Democratic retreat.

— Hans Nichols

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) is calling for a foreign policy refresh that seizes the mantle of reform from President Trump.

Why it matters: "There is no going back to the world of January 2025," she will say at the Council on Foreign Relations tomorrow morning, according to excerpts obtained by Axios.

• Her speech amounts to a frank acknowledgment that the Democratic Party, and the foreign policy community, need to rethink their approach to global affairs.
• But the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will also defend many features of the post-war international architecture. And she will double down on her commitment to free trade.
• "I've supported free trade for decades and I believe we shouldn't be afraid to say that," she will say.
• "Trade, when done right, lowers costs, creates jobs and provides critical geopolitical advantages."

Zoom in: In tomorrow's remarks, Shaheen appears to acknowledge that some targets of Trump's cuts made it hard to defend them, though she didn't mention any specific institutions, like USAID, which Trump has slashed.

• And she also suggested that foreign policy leaders need to rethink the military aid the U.S. sends to Israel, given that Israel is now "one of the world's most powerful militaries."

Go deeper.

— Hans Nichols