The first roll call will be tense, but Mike Johnson has a clear path tomorrow to a full term as House speaker.

• 🚨 "I think we get it done on the first round," Johnson told Fox Business this afternoon.

Why it matters: On paper, Johnson has a better outlook than former Speaker Kevin McCarthy did two years ago.

• McCarthy had a four-seat margin in January 2023, and five Republicans were public "no" votes ahead of the speaker election.
• Johnson has a two-seat margin and one public GOP "no" vote. (It's Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, see item No. 4).

"It feels like it's different from two years ago," one House Republican told us.

• Johnson's skeptics, the lawmaker said, are "looking for a couple policy accommodations" while McCarthy's "had an ax to grind."
• Case in point: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who tried to oust Johnson last year, said tonight she'll vote for Johnson and urged others to get on board.

📲 President-elect Trump is also involved. He called one of the holdouts — Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) — to press him to back Johnson, Punchbowl reported today.

• In 2023, Trump notably intervened after McCarthy had lost several rounds of balloting.
• This time he's twisting arms ahead of the big event.

Zoom in: Mainstream GOP lawmakers have warned Johnson against handshake deals with conservatives, we scooped this afternoon.

• "There are significant communications," said one of the lawmakers, who told us that these GOP moderates are warning Johnson: "Don't do what [former speaker Kevin] McCarthy did."
• "Don't give promises upon which you can't deliver. Don't give promises that require us to do things that we don't want to do, that are beyond reasonable," the lawmaker said.

Establishment Republicans loathe the idea of making Roy the chair of the House Rules Committee.

• That is a "very unpopular initiative for many Republicans," a House Republican told us.

The speaker says he's "open" to some conservative demands.

• The big one: No putting big-ticket bills on the floor under suspension of the rules. Many of those suspension votes were because House GOP leaders surrendered control of the House Rules Committee in January 2023.
• Johnson ran into this buzzsaw several times last year before getting help from Democrats on must-pass bills. Conservatives want this trend to end, boxing in Johnson unless he stuffs Rules with more speaker-friendly votes.
• Democrats seem uninterested in bailing out Johnson — and by extension, Trump, on must-pass bills that can't get by the Freedom Caucus.

— Andrew Solender and Justin Green

Watch these 13 House Republicans during tomorrow's speaker vote (the show starts at noon ET).

• If there's a second "no" besides Massie, it's most likely to come from their ranks.

After New Orleans and Las Vegas, Senate Republicans are feeling the heat to move fast on national security nominees.

• Confirmation hearings are expected to start the week of Jan. 13, with rules requiring that committee chairs give at least a week's notice.

☑️ Up first: Pete Hegseth for secretary of defense and Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence. Then look for other important nat-sec roles to go next:

• Pam Bondi for attorney general ... John Ratcliffe for CIA director ... Kash Patel for FBI director ... Marco Rubio for secretary of state ... Kristi Noem for homeland security.

Between the lines: Rubio is expected to have the easiest time getting confirmed.

• Hegseth and Gabbard will be trickier.

— Stef Kight

"Could you please stay off Twitter?"

The bottom line: Massie "felt a little bad" and took a social media break after Johnson's request, he told the Wall Street Journal.