The growing universe of House members eyeing higher offices could complicate life for Speaker Mike Johnson and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries ahead of huge votes in the coming months.

• Why it matters: Members running statewide tend not to have the best attendance records, and in many cases, their exit would force the party to defend a swing district seat.

The big picture: More than a half dozen House members are already running for other offices — six for governor, one for Senate — with at least another 30 considering runs.

• Some are conditioning their plans on what political heavyweights in their states do.
• Several ambitious House Republicans in Georgia, for instance, have said they would only consider running against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) if Gov. Brian Kemp (R) passes on a bid.
• The same dynamic is at play for incumbent senators, with numerous House Democrats waiting to see whether Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) retires.

The intrigue: In Jeffries' case, he's already dealing with two vacancies caused by deaths and another member, Rep. Donald Norcross (D-N.J.), in intensive care.

• But Jeffries told us he isn't worried, saying House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) "has done a tremendous job; we've had complete attendance, absent a handful of medical emergencies."

Zoom in: Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) signaled he could run for Senate or governor, telling us he is "running for reelection to my seat as far as I know, but I'll look at statewide offices. I'm not taking anything off the table."

• Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) is "99.9%" of the way to a gubernatorial run, a source familiar with her thinking told us.
• Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) isn't ruling out a run for governor or Senate, saying in a statement to us he will "continue my service to the people of Georgia at whatever level they choose in the future."

Share this story

— Andrew Solender

Count 'em: On three occasions this year, Johnson has convinced the ornery House Freedom Caucus to fold after it staked out positions of public defiance.

1. Reconciliation round one in February: Remember the pulled vote, the 13-minute reversal and canceled dinner plans?
2. CR vote in March: Trump threatened to primary Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). He ended up being the only "no."
3. Reconciliation round two today: Senate Majority Leader John Thune convinced the holdouts the Senate was serious about spending cuts.

The bottom line: Johnson may not be a speaker to be feared (like Nancy Pelosi, by all members) or hated (like Kevin McCarthy, by a few).

• But, with tons of help from President Trump, he keeps surviving.

— Hans Nichols and Justin Green

Thune gave Johnson a big assist in the last 24 hours. But now GOP senators are drawing their own lines in the sand, and they won't be as easy to flip.

Why it matters: Thanks to a likely baked-in "no" from Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Thune can lose only two other GOP votes. That's very possible on several fronts.

1. Death by energy: Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), John Curtis (R-Utah), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) are demanding that leadership protect the Inflation Reduction Act's energy credits from getting cut.
2. Death by Medicaid: Murkowski and Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) voted on an amendment to protect Medicaid. They've made clear they won't vote for any cuts to benefits.
3. Death by spending: Conservative Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) frequently join Paul to raise alarms about the growing deficit.

What to watch: Trump's ask for the cap on SALT to be raised will be another unpopular proposal with Senate Republicans, who are much less amenable to the idea than those in the House.

• Committees will now get to work on how exactly they want to fund border security and the military — and where they want to take a hatchet to current government spending.

The bottom line: It's not impossible to keep everyone happy on the specifics of Trump's "one, big beautiful bill," but it will be a headache.

• Adding to the degree of difficulty, Thune and Johnson have to get this bill passed before the debt ceiling "x-date" in August or September or risk a global financial crisis.

— Stef Kight