Axios Hill Leaders

October 28, 2025
Tonight's a newsy Monday edition. 869 words, 3.5 minutes.
- 🚨 New Republican hardball
- 🥱 D.C.-area Dems shrug off union demands
- 🗳 Redistricting's next surge
1 big thing: 🚨 New Republican hardball
Senate Republicans are leaning toward keeping pressure on Democrats to reopen the entire government, not just parts of it, senators and aides told us.
Why it matters: Republicans are convinced they're close to breaking Democrats' will on the shutdown.
- You saw it today, when the largest union for federal workers called on Democrats to immediately pass a "clean" stopgap spending bill on the GOP's terms. (More in item No. 2).
- You saw it Thursday, when Georgia Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock joined Republicans to vote for a carveout on military pay. They'd previously stuck with other Democrats.
- Significant pain points are coming: U.S. troops and many federal workers will miss a full paycheck this week, and SNAP — a critical food assistance program for 42 million low-income people — will run out of funds on Nov. 1.
The big picture: Softening the blow for one group — like military personnel, air traffic controllers or SNAP recipients — would reduce the pressure to end the shutdown.
- "If they want to open the government, they're really concerned about the SNAP program — open the government with a simple vote," Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) said as he came out of a leadership meeting tonight.
- "I just think the cleanest and most comprehensive way is just to do the CR. Real people are hurting," Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) told us.
- "They are trying to break the logjam," said Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), who said he wants "to see what our leadership wants" before making a final decision on next steps.
The other side: Some Senate Democrats are indicating they would be open to partially reopening the government.
- "If you get something that works and makes sense and doesn't provide more power to [OMB Director] Russell Vought … we'll take a close look at it," Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) told us today.
- Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) told reporters he would support bills to pay for SNAP and air traffic controllers.
- Multiple sources told us it took some muscling from Democratic leadership last week to keep it to just three Democrats who voted in support of a GOP-led bill to pay some federal workers and troops.
What's next: All eyes will be on the GOP's closed-door lunch tomorrow, during which next steps will be debated, including whether to force more votes on smaller bills to fund specific programs or federal workers.
- "I'm sure we'll have a fairly good discussion about it tomorrow," Majority Leader John Thune told reporters today.
- Thune told reporters his view is that if Democrats want "to pay SNAP recipients, open the government."
- Vice President Vance is expected to attend the lunch, NBC News first reported and we have confirmed.
— Stef Kight, Hans Nichols and Stephen Neukam
2. 🥱 D.C.-area Dems shrug off union demands
Today's call from the largest federal workers union to reopen the government would normally have a profound impact on Democrats.
- The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) wants Democrats to do what they've sworn not to: Pass a "clean" stopgap bill on the expectation of future health care negotiations.
Why it matters: These aren't normal times. Democrats are determined to walk away from the shutdown with something to show for their intransigence.
- "I have a lot of AFGE members in my district and they are pissed ... at the statement," said one D.C.-area House Democrat on the condition of anonymity.
- "They think Republicans have been shutting down the government anyway and buy our argument" about the expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies, the lawmaker told us.
A second D.C.-area lawmaker said they are "not sure there is much of a difference" after the statement.
- They called Nov. 1's SNAP benefits cutoff "the bigger issue to watch."
Between the lines: Democrats have also said throughout the shutdown that furloughs and reductions in force aren't effective pressure points as in past shutdowns, because the administration has been laying off huge swaths of the federal workforce for months.
- "Universities, law firms, media outlets, judges. Now unions," a third House Democrat said.
- "To protect the immediate needs of their members, they will cave and call on their defenders to give in," the lawmaker said. "Their workforce will be decimated ultimately by this administration. How do we defend them then?"
The bottom line: "The AFGE would not want us to cut a deal and then have Trump fire a bunch of people next week," Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said.
- "If we cut a deal, and [Trump officials] did that, they would come to us and say: 'What the hell were you guys thinking?'"
— Andrew Solender and Stephen Neukam
3. 🗳 New phase on redistricting

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries was in Illinois today to encourage the state's Democratic lawmakers to squeeze one more blue seat from their heavily gerrymandered map.
- In Indiana, Republican state lawmakers convened a special session to consider drawing out one — or both — of the remaining House Democrats in their state.
- In Virginia, Democrats are pitching a victory in next Tuesday's state legislative and gubernatorial elections as an opportunity to draw out two or three of their state's House Republicans.
— Andrew Solender
This newsletter was edited by Justin Green and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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