Axios Hill Leaders

July 16, 2025
Hello after an unexpectedly newsy day! 992 words, 3.5 minutes.
- š„µ GOP boils over
- š Inside Jeffries' Epstein strategy
- š° The Senate's fundraising outlier
Situational awareness: Senate GOP leaders are moving forward tonight with votes on cuts to PBS, NPR and foreign aid, Stef Kight reports.
- The $9.4 billion in total cuts were downsized to $9 billion after funding for PEPFAR was reinstated.
1 big thing: š„µ GOP boils over

House Speaker Mike Johnson's big, beautiful honeymoon is over.
Why it matters: The speaker has survived plenty of crises. But today has been a grim reminder of the impossibility of governing with a single-digit majority.
- He abruptly canceled today's remaining floor votes after conservatives tanked the procedural vote for a trio of crypto bills and a defense spending measure. President Trump wants the GENIUS Act, one of those three crypto bills, to get passed now.
- Johnson's also in a rare sideways with Trump, backing the release of all Jeffrey Epstein files before the president claimed the files are a deep state hoax.
- The speaker is even watching Democrats unify in real-time around the files' release, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries embracing the push (more in No. 2).
Leadership was caught off guard by the procedural vote failing.
- "This is the legislative process. We have some members who really want to emphasize the House's product," Johnson said immediately after the vote.
- Johnson said he expected some "no" votes but thought it was "important to try and advance" the bills.
What's next: Johnson will try to put the wheels back on tomorrow morning.
ā Kate Santaliz
2. š Inside Jeffries' Epstein strategy
Jeffries is shocking some colleagues by embracing efforts to exploit MAGA divisions over the Epstein files.
Why it matters: Amid demands from the liberal grassroots that Democrats take off the gloves with Trump, the Democratic leader has shifted from vowing not to "swing at every pitch" to adopting a "more is more" strategy.
- Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) told us he has been "very closely in coordination" with Jeffries' office and "all indications we've gotten is support from the leadership on this."
Zoom in: Jeffries has signaled to allies he sees the Epstein story as fitting neatly into a broader narrative about alleged corruption in the Trump administration, sources told us.
- "He's not going to let go of Epstein," one senior House Democrat told us on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly about internal discussions.
Driving the news: What began as individual efforts to squeeze the Trump administration into releasing all documents related to Epstein morphed into a fully leadership-sanctioned campaign in less than 24 hours.
- Reps. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) and Khanna introduced measures that would demand and force the DOJ to publish the documents, respectively.
- Jeffries said last night he had not spoken to either lawmaker or evaluated their proposals. However, hours later, his members on the House Rules Committee were trying to get both measures to the floor.
- Today, Democratic leadership made its support clear by trying to pass a procedural motion to force a vote on Khanna's bill. Both efforts failed.
The bottom line: Even as Jeffries has given his blessing, he has cautioned not to abandon other messaging tactics the party sees as fruitful ā part of his "more is more" strategy.
- In a meeting of House Democrats' steering committee last night, Jeffries urged lawmakers to keep hammering the administration on issues like the cost of living, according to two lawmakers who were present.
ā Andrew Solender
3. š° The Senate's fundraising outlier


Some Senate candidates aren't hitting the fundraising circuit as if their political lives depend on it.
Why it matters: Most battleground senators facing reelection this cycle put up seven-figure fundraising numbers last quarter. It's a testament to the power of incumbency, indicating their own desire to stay in office.
- But Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) raised $723K this quarter, compared to $1.1 million during the same period six years ago.
- Former Rep. Mike Rogers, the GOP's preferred candidate in Michigan, raised $1.5 million for the cycle, a figure that is unlikely to scare Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) out of a contested primary.
By the numbers: The Democrats' most endangered incumbent, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), had another impressive quarter, raising $10 million. That leaves him with $15.5 million cash on hand.
- Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the only GOP senator from a state Democrats won in the presidential election last year, raised $2.5 million. She has $5.25 million cash on hand.
Zoom in: Sen. John Cornyn, facing a GOP primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, raised $3.9 million for the quarter, although more than $3 million of that was to his joint fundraising committee.
- Paxton raised $2.9 million for the quarter and has $2.5 million cash on hand.
- Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who also faces a primary challenger, raised $2.1 million and has more than $9 million cash on hand.
What we're hearing: Ernst is telling colleagues she'll make a decision to run for reelection this fall.
- If she doesn't run, GOP strategists expect Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) to jump in.
- Hinson raised $850,000 for the quarter and has $2.8 million cash on hand ā funds she can transfer from her House race to a potential Senate one.
- Ernst campaign manager Bryan Kraber told us in a statement: "Instead of fundraising trips and meeting with millionaires, Senator Ernst has been hard at work advancing President Trump's agenda and delivering a tax break for hardworking Iowans."
Go deeper: Rogers, who struggled with fundraising in his 2024 loss to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), does have some outside support from a super PAC this cycle. The Great Lakes Conservative Fund raised more than $5 million to support his candidacy, according to The Hill.
- His quarterly numbers this year are double the amount he raised in the first quarter after he announced in 2023.
- "I'm in this fight for Michigan, and we're going to win it for Michigan," Rogers said when he announced his Q2 numbers.
ā Hans Nichols
This newsletter was edited by Justin Green and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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