Axios Hill Leaders

May 05, 2026
It's primary night for Ohio (polls closed at 7:30pm ET) and Indiana (last polls closed at 7pm ET). Tonight's edition is 820 words, 3 minutes.
- 💛 Senate's gilded vote
- 😤 House Dems rage
- 💰 Michigan's dry powder
‼️ Situational awareness: GOP megadonor Ken Griffin told CNBC today it's "almost a certainty that Democrats will take the House" in November.
- Griffin was a top backer of the House GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund in 2024.
1 big thing: 💛 Senate's gilded vote
Chuck Schumer's Senate Democrats are salivating at the chance to force every Republican to vote on $1 billion for security upgrades tied to President Trump's new White House ballroom.
Why it matters: A billion-dollar, Trump-branded gilded ballroom — which the president insisted would be privately funded — is the kind of affordability contrast Democrats have dreamed about for the 2026 midterms.
- "It's an outrageous betrayal of hardworking families who want lower costs, not a golden ballroom," said Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee.
- "Republicans are ignoring middle-class needs and funneling money into Trump's ballroom while throwing billions at two lawless agencies," said Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), the top Democrat on the Budget Committee.
Driving the news: Republicans tucked $1 billion for the Secret Service to fund "above-ground and below-ground security features" in the East Wing into their $72 billion reconciliation bill, part of a broader package aimed at funding ICE and Border Patrol through fiscal 2029.
- The provision explicitly bars spending on "non-security elements."
- Trump had insisted that "no government funds" would be used in the ballroom's construction.
Zoom in: Expect the ballroom to take center stage in the Senate "vote-a-rama" that the reconciliation bill must survive before it can reach the president's desk.
- One catch: Democrats privately worry the Senate parliamentarian could strip the $1 billion provision before it ever hits the floor.
Zoom out: After the shooting at the White House Correspondents' Dinner last month, some Republicans pushed for Congress to cover what was then a roughly $400 million ballroom price tag.
- Senate Budget Committee chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said he'd rather handle it through the normal appropriations process — and made clear he's open to forcing Democrats to go on the record on funding a secure venue for large-scale presidential events.
— Hans Nichols
2. 😤 House Dems rage
Over in the House, the $1 billion for Trump's ballroom project sent Democrats into a frenzy today.
Why it matters: To many lawmakers, it's a grim display of how far Republicans have gone in subordinating Congress' prerogatives to the executive branch.
- "Their political castration is complete," Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) told us. "They're sending Trump $1 billion to build a gilded room for their balls."
- "It's time for them to find the spine that holds them upward," Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) told us about Republicans.
Between the lines: "If we had a different [president], we wouldn't need the security measures that they're proposing," fumed Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.).
- "In fact, if he just stayed in the White House, we wouldn't need the security measures."
The bottom line: The Republican-controlled House only needs a simple majority to pass the reconciliation bill — though their tight vote margins could be an issue.
- A senior House Democrat told us their party "will do everything to fight it and tie [it] around Republicans when they vote."
— Andrew Solender
3. 💰 Michigan's dry powder
Buckle up, Michiganders: The state's three Democratic Senate candidates are sitting on small mountains of cash to attack each other for the next three months.
Why it matters: The contest is heating up on social media ahead of the Aug. 4 primary, but no one has gone scorched-earth with the kind of paid advertising that can sear negative images into voters' minds.
- The candidates are stockpiling cash for the campaign's final stretch. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official, have used their funds to raise more money.
- The race is essentially tied, with El-Sayed leading McMorrow by 2.3 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
By the numbers: McMorrow has spent $431,000 on TV and digital ads over the past two months, according to AdImpact.
- El-Sayed has spent $156,000.
- Stevens has spent just $14,000.
Between the lines: McMorrow started the second quarter with $3.6 million cash on hand, according to her FEC filing. Stevens had $3.4 million and El-Sayed had $2.5 million.
Zoom out: In Maine — the site of another Democratic Senate proxy battle this cycle — Graham Platner built a sizable polling lead after flooding the airwaves with ads.
- Platner's campaign spent $4.6 million over the past two months, according to AdImpact.
- Gov. Janet Mills spent $1.1 million before she suspended her campaign (citing a lack of funds), including on some direct attacks targeting Platner.
The bottom line: The biggest spender in the Michigan race is Americans for Prosperity Action, which has spent $4.8 million boosting the Republican candidate, former Rep. Mike Rogers.
— Hans Nichols
This newsletter was edited by Justin Green and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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