Lawmakers are talking tough. But for many federal workers, Friday is their last (and incomplete) payday for the indefinite future.

• Why it matters: Both parties on the Hill are eyeing key pressure points in the coming days to force the other side to cave.

They won't have to look too hard.

• In the next four to five days, President Trump has threatened another round of federal government layoffs.
• Friday, Oct. 10: Federal workers get their last paychecks for work in September. All work starting Oct. 1 is unpaid until the shutdown ends (more on that below).
• Monday, Oct. 13: The Senate was scheduled to kick off a recess week. Fundraisers, campaigning, in-state events and media, surgeries, and other important personal events will likely need to be rescheduled or canceled.
• Wednesday, Oct. 15: U.S. troops will miss paychecks.
• Over the next week or so, the Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) may run out of funding, leaving moms and children without needed food assistance. The White House says it has found funding to keep the program afloat longer, as Axios scooped today.
• Saturday, Oct. 18: No Kings protests are planned across the country. GOP leaders have been raising their concerns that Democrats will feel political pressure to hold out on funding the government until after the protests.
• Monday, Oct. 20: Senate staff will miss their first whole paycheck — even as senators continue to be paid.
• Friday, Oct. 31: House staff will miss paychecks, even as their bosses continue to be paid.

The big picture: Trump is turning up the temperature even more over back pay for federal workers.

• "It depends on who you're talking about," he said today when asked about the White House memo — scooped by Axios' Marc Caputo — that suggested back pay was not guaranteed after a shutdown for furloughed workers.
• Trump signed the law in 2019 that guarantees back pay after shutdowns.
• Asked later about the law, Trump said, "I follow the law and what the law says is correct."

The bottom line: Democrats erupted over Trump's comments. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries promised they "will make sure that the law is followed."

• Speaker Mike Johnson said he hopes federal workers get paid on principle, but demurred on whether he would oppose any administration attempt to deny back pay.
• "[T]here are some legal analysts who are saying that that may not be appropriate or necessary in terms of the law requiring that back pay be provided."
• "If that is true, that should turn up the urgency and the necessity of the Democrats doing the right thing here," he added.

— Stef Kight and Andrew Solender

A super PAC linked to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is telling allies it would be a "mistake to take the pressure off Republicans," because Democrats are winning the political fight over the government shutdown, according to a memo we scooped today.

Why it matters: Democrats are increasingly convinced they are winning the political fight over the government shutdown.

• The data, they say, shows the voters are with them.

Zoom in: JB Poersch, the president of Senate Majority PAC and a close Schumer ally, said the party's "fight over health care priorities is a fight worth having."

Between the lines: The memo warns Democrats not to yield on their health care demands or accept vague GOP "promises of talks later."

— Stephen Neukam

Stronger Maine, a new super PAC supporting five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins, is defending her response to the government shutdown with a new $250,000 ad buy this month.

Why it matters: Thirteen months ahead of Election Day, Maine is emerging as ground zero for the shutdown blame game.

• The ad buys are big and they are early.

Driving the news: Majority Forward, a 501(c)(4) issue advocacy group affiliated with Schumer, was the first to air a shutdown ad in Maine, accusing Collins of wanting "to shut down the government."

• The new GOP digital spot from Stronger Maine, its first ad this cycle, is a direct response to the Schumer broadside.
• "Chuck Schumer is at it again. Running false ads against Senator Collins," the narrator says. "The truth: Chuck Schumer shut down the government. Susan Collins is fighting to open it."

Zoom out: There are so many super PACs and 501(c)(4) groups in Maine, it's difficult to keep them separate.

• On the pro-Collins super PAC side, in addition to Stronger Maine, there's also Pine Tree Results, which raised $5.6 million in the first half of the year.
• Also in Collins' corner is Stronger America, an issue advocacy 501(c)(4) organization that has spent or reserved nearly $1.87 million in September and October, according to AdImpact.
• Democrats have a $970,000 buy in Maine from Majority Forward, according to AdImpact. Majority Forward is organized as a 501(c)(4) but has ties to a Schumer-affiliated super PAC.

Zoom in: The race in Maine is expected to get more complicated when Gov. Janet Mills jumps into the Democratic primary to challenge Collins. We scooped today that Mills is expected to enter the race this month.

• But the Democratic field is crowded, and progressive Graham Platner is drawing large crowds.

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— Hans Nichols