Democratic candidates have adopted a drastically more negative tone toward their own party in the 2026 midterm elections, according to an Axios analysis.

😤 Why it matters: The new attacks reflect the extraordinary anger candidates are seeing from their voters toward the Democratic Party and the national political establishment.

Between the lines: We identified 47 ads in the last 30 days run by Democrats or independents running as the de facto Democratic nominee featuring that type of negative messaging, up from 19 in 2024 and 2022, 15 in 2020, and 14 in 2018.

• Candidates often pitch themselves as bipartisan problem solvers.
• But Democrats have leaned hard into anti-establishment rhetoric this year, with ads denouncing a broken political system or citing past instances in which they defied their party.

🤕 Zoom in: This dynamic could become a headache for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is set to face a large cohort of rebellious progressives who have declined to commit to voting for him as speaker.

• He may also have to contend with a growing contingent of swing-district centrists, elected on a platform of independence from both parties, who similarly refuse to follow his lead.

What they're saying: "[B]oth parties need to shape up," Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) said in an ad that called Washington "deeply corrupt."

• "It's bad enough both parties couldn't care less about corruption," said Jake Johnson, a swing-district Democratic House candidate in Minnesota, in one of his ads.
• Sam Forstag, a House candidate in Montana, told us in an interview that "a whole lot of my coworkers got a sour look on their face" when he revealed he was running as a Democrat.

🤑 Between the lines: Forstag said he "can think of no better articulation of the literal disconnect between our representatives at the federal level and what it's been like on the ground" than Democrats' positive economic message in 2024.

• Now it's Republicans defending the economy and status quo in 2026.

😀 The other side: Some Democrats prefer to keep their cross-party messaging optimistic.

• "People hate what's happening right now," swing-district Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) said. "They want change. They want fighters with the goal of action and progress, not just fighting for the sake of fighting."
• Landsman has adopted a more optimistic message on bipartisanship, with one of his ads saying he "got Republicans and Democrats to work together and change the law" on Social Security benefits for public pensioners.
• "I really do believe that the opposite of this deeply unpopular status quo is people working together to get shit done," Landsman told us.

The bottom line: Justin Pearson, a progressive Tennessee Democrat running in a heavily Republican district, told us that voters see "way too many similarities between the Democratic Party and Republican Party at the top."

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— Andrew Solender

⏩ Cook Political Report shifted 15 House races toward Democrats today, the latest sign that the political environment is deteriorating for Republicans.

🗳️ The big picture: Cook now projects Democrats are most likely to gain between five and 15 seats, which would give them a 220- to 230-seat majority next year.

• New Democratic maps in California and Utah are largely offsetting Republicans' redistricting gains elsewhere, according to Cook.
• One GOP silver lining: The National Republican Congressional Committee has a record cash advantage over the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The NRCC entered the final stretch with $13 million more in cash on hand.

Zoom in: Some of the most competitive House races are overwhelmingly in districts President Trump won in 2024.

• Trump is underwater in many of those districts, driven in large part by dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy, according to Cook.
• The median Toss Up district voted for Trump by 7 percentage points in 2024.

— Kate Santaliz