Rep. Brett Guthrie's (R-Ky.) crusade to revamp Medicaid stretches back to his days as a state legislator. He's about to get his best chance.

Why it matters: The new Energy and Commerce chair has been given the lion's share — $880 billion — of at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts for Speaker Mike Johnson's budget reconciliation package.

Zoom in: Guthrie's quickest path to $880 billion is to revisit an idea blocked by the late Sen. John McCain in 2017 — a "per capita cap" on federal funding for state Medicaid programs.

• Per capita caps would likely result in less money for states, forcing them to make up the difference by raising taxes or cutting spending elsewhere.
• "I dealt with it. That's why I care about this. ... It just overwhelmed state budgets," Guthrie told us of his experience in the Kentucky Statehouse.

But cutting Medicaid has real political risks: Johnson himself stated this week that "Medicaid has never been on the chopping block."

• President Trump recently said he didn't want people's Medicaid benefits "affected" and instead wanted to target "abuse or waste" in the program.
• And House GOP moderates are warning they could have issues with voting for deep Medicaid cuts.

The bottom line: "I've always said that we need to reform Medicaid, even if it wasn't part of reconciliation, because the program is unsustainable," Guthrie told us.

• "It depends on what we can get 218 votes for."

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— Victoria Knight

The AI revolution is creating a new battleground over fossil fuels and climate on Energy and Commerce.

Why it matters: AI's rise has prompted fears across the tech and energy industries about energy shortages and spikes in climate-warming emissions.

• Democrats want zero-carbon power to jumpstart AI.
• Republicans counter that coal, oil and natural gas are more than up to the task.

On the Democratic side, keep an eye on Reps. Kathy Castor (Fla.), the ranking member on the Energy Subcommittee, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.), who joined the committee this year.

• Among Republicans, watch Energy Subcommittee Chair Robert Latta (Ohio), Rep. Julie Fedorchak (N.D.), a former state utility regulator who is new to the panel this year, and Rep. Troy Balderson (Ohio).
• Balderson introduced a bill last week that encapsulates what Republicans would like to do: Prioritize fossil fuels and nuclear over wind and solar for connection to the power grid.

In particular, Ocasio-Cortez's massive social media presence, coupled with her high-profile advocacy for a Green New Deal, lend her supersized influence as a junior committee member.

What we're watching: Nuclear could be the common ground. Latta is a longtime nuclear energy booster, and Castor cited the power source, particularly advanced reactor technology, as a potential area for collaboration.

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— Nick Sobczyk, Daniel Moore and Maria Curi