Senate Democrats are talking a big game on ICE. But behind closed doors, they're fixated on avoiding a broader fight over immigration.

Why it matters: After getting shellacked on the issue in 2024, Democratic leaders want to fight over law and order instead.

• "This isn't about trying to enact immigration reform," Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), a member of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's leadership team, said yesterday.
• "All we're asking is that this federal law enforcement agency operate like every other law enforcement agency operates in the country," he said.
• Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) told us today: "American citizens were killed by federal agents. That doesn't happen on a regular basis."

🔒 In a private caucus meeting this week, Senate Dems discussed how to beat back GOP attempts to steer the debate over ICE into one about immigration, multiple sources familiar with the meeting told us.

• Democrats are concerned that Republican leaders, including President Trump, are injecting issues like the SAVE Act and sanctuary cities into discussions about funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

👎 Those Republican priorities are nonstarters for Schumer in negotiations with the White House over reforms to ICE.

• But Republican leaders are also quickly rejecting Democratic demands over warrants and face masks.

The bottom line: Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who's far from a regular bomb thrower, accused Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of being "afraid of their shadows" today.

• "Any time they're negotiating anyway with the Trump administration, their base has a meltdown, and these guys seem to be very, very afraid of that," Thune told reporters.
• For their part, the Democratic leaders said no reforms, no votes.

— Stephen Neukam

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and his allies are planning to spend roughly $10 million in the next four weeks.

• "That's a round number," Cornyn told us.

Why it matters: Cornyn is targeting Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) to turn the three-way race into a two-man showdown.

• "We're gonna be in a runoff, so we got to pay attention to both of them," he said.
• The primary is on March 3, and the expected run-off is on May 26th. That's forcing Cornyn and his allies to calculate when to start draining down his sizable cash advantage.

Zoom out: $65 million has already been spent on TV advertising by Republican groups and super PACs, according to AdImpact.

• But if Cornyn loses the primary, avoiding a general election loss could be even more exorbitant for the Republican Party.
• The contest has been a headache for party leaders for months, as they weigh when — and how much — to spend to ensure the seat stays in the GOP column.

At a closed door briefing yesterday, Brendan Jaspers, the NRSC's political director, shared polling showing Cornyn would comfortably win a general election in Texas if he emerges from a contested primary.

• But trying to get Paxton across the line could cost hundreds of millions of dollars, he said.

The bottom line: Cornyn ended the year with $15 million in the campaign accounts he controls. A super PAC supporting him, Texans for a Conservative Majority, reported $5 million cash on hand at the end of the year.

• Paxton's campaign reported $3.7 million at the end of the year in cash on hand. A super PAC supporting him ended the year with $2.8 million in cash on hand. It wasn't very aggressive in 2025.

Read more.

— Hans Nichols and Kate Santaliz

Key Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee appear to be greasing the path for Kevin Warsh to be confirmed as Fed Chair by downplaying the criminal investigation into Chairman Jay Powell or calling for it to be resolved.

Why it matters: Warsh's nomination is being held hostage by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who is demanding that Trump drop an investigation into Powell before he votes Warsh out of committee.

• The easiest and fastest way for Warsh to be confirmed is for Trump or the White House to signal that the investigation has been concluded.
• If he moves out of committee, he will likely win easy confirmation on the floor.

Zoom in: Tillis is "perfectly within his rights, and I hope we can get it resolved," Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said. "And one way, obviously, to get it resolved is to complete the investigation."

• "It only takes one of us to have that. Thom has taken that ground already," said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) "Everything tells me [Warsh] would be an excellent nominee."

The bottom line: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), the chair of the committee, made his first comments on the Powell investigation by casting the allegedly criminal behavior — false testimony over the cost of a Fed remodel — in a sympathetic light.

• "I believe what he did was make a gross error in judgment. He was not prepared for that hearing. I do not believe that he committed a crime during the hearing," Scott told Fox Business.
• Sen. Kevin Cramer (D-N.D.), another banking committee member, said: "I don't think that he belongs in a federal courtroom or a federal penitentiary."

— Hans Nichols