House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) is staring at a scary political environment for Republicans and claiming to see something very different: a path to 225 seats.

Why it matters: Republican leaders insist they can retain the majority, but only if they drive their voters to the polls by manufacturing the kind of voter enthusiasm Democrats are generating organically.

• 🏆 "If we make it a contrast election, we win," Scalise told us in an interview today.
• "We could get to 225. It would be a good night for us if we did, but it's possible," he said.
• "235 is not," he said. "You're literally doing coin tosses in a couple of seats."

Between the lines: Asked if he saw any signs of a blue wave forming or the map expanding, Scalise said: "Not right now. No."

✅ Reality check: Republicans know that history — and many of the indicators heading into November — is working against them.

• "I know what history says, you know, but history's not on the ballot," Scalise said.
• 🗳️ Still, Democrats are turning out in primaries — and special elections — as if they're getting free gas cards for showing up.

Democrats lead by nearly nine percentage points on the generic ballot.

• President Trump's approval rating is below 40%, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
• And Trump is underwater by a whopping 61 percentage points on inflation in a recent poll, an apparent record.

🔎 Zoom in: Republicans are examining the map with a jeweler's loupe and insist the picture isn't as bleak in the pivotal battleground seats.

• "We're not looking at national polls; we go district by district," Scalise said.
• That means trench warfare in 35 seats, where Republicans say they have proven winners, plenty of money and new rules to spend it.
• "We've got 20 [seats] on our side that we're fighting to hold on to that are real competitive, and 15 [seats] that we have a real chance to flip," Scalise said. "These are knock-down, drag-out fights."

🎧 What we're hearing: The White House has long thought of the midterms as a "hate election." Scalise uses the more genteel term "contrast election."

• But before Republicans can dream about growing their majority, they need to fix their enthusiasm problem — and match the Democratic energy showing up in many of the preelection indicators.

The GOP's midterm convention in Dallas last week was the first step.

• "If we are able to capitalize on that kind of enthusiasm and carry that momentum into November, then we'll have the same turnout as the other side, and we'll hold the majority," Scalise said.
• 🚌 Now comes the road show: Congressional leaders — and the president — are hitting the campaign trail.
• In the next two weeks, Scalise will travel to 11 states to campaign for 16 Republicans — incumbents and challengers.

The bottom line: The 225-seat scenario is Scalise's high-water mark. At another point in the interview, he suggested the majority could be smaller — closer to the 220–215 split Republicans won in 2024.

• "This isn't going to be a 10-seat majority, but it could be a six-seat majority."

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— Hans Nichols

The House's last in-session week before the midterms was beset by furious private finger-pointing among House Democrats following several high-profile rebellions.

• 🔥 There is even chatter among members contrasting the ability of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to control members with that of his top deputy, Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), according to two House Democrats.

Why it matters: This dynamic may only worsen if Democrats retake the House, which is set to see an influx of distinctly rebellious and independent lawmakers, particularly on the left.

• Said one of the two House Democrats, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share details of sensitive private discussions: "People are talking about 'Mom and Dad'.… Dad is soft."
• ⁉️ "I think people are asking the question: If this is happening in the minority, are you prepared for what will happen in the majority?" said a third House Democrat.

☀️ "There is no daylight between the three of us," Jeffries said at a press conference today with Clark and Democratic Caucus chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.).

• "We'll address the situation when we address the situation," he added.
• A Democratic leadership aide told us that everything Jeffries' deputies do is in coordination with him and doesn't represent a break between leaders.

Catch up quick: Reps. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) and Jared Golden (D-Maine) yesterday provided Republican leadership with the necessary votes to advance a package of GOP bills, including a Russia sanctions bill strongly opposed by Democratic leaders.

• ⚡️ It was the second time this month that the pair of centrists defected from leadership on a procedural vote — even after Clark and Jeffries publicly threatened them with punishment the first time.
• Rep. Analilia Mejia (D-N.J.) said progressives "catch shit" for being "too ideologic and bold on our ideas," and that it's "curious … how there isn't an equally vocal attack" on centrists who break from the party line.
• Clark, along with Jeffries, engaged Gluesenkamp Perez in a heated discussion on the House floor during the vote in view of an Axios reporter, which sources said was about her defection.

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— Andrew Solender