Axios Generate

December 20, 2023
π₯ Good morning! This newsletter has a Smart Brevity count of 1,213 words, 4.5 minutes
ποΈ Programming note: This is our last edition until Jan. 2. Happy holidays and we'll see you in 2024.
πΈ Happy birthday to Chris Robinson of the Black Crowes, who have today's intro tune...
1 big thing: Biden, U.S. oil boom are the new odd couple
Illustration: AΓ―da Amer/Axios
A call between senior Biden administration aides and reporters nicely captured a politically delicate White House stance on record U.S. oil and gas production and exports, Ben writes.
Driving the news: Ali Zaidi, a senior climate adviser, was asked Tuesday how 2023's record levels of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and oil output align with the White House's climate goals.
The intrigue: It was on a call meant to tout growth of the "clean" energy economy under Biden (more on that below); here's how Zaidi fielded the question...
- He noted the U.S. has been expanding a "variety of forms" of energy production, adding that "under the president's leadership, clean energy production is off the charts."
- He added the administration takes in the "best of" scientific, economic and technical data to craft "strong and smart" emissions policy.
- Zaidi said Biden's been "clear" on the need β reflected in COP28's outcome in Dubai β to "transition globally" from fossil fuels.
- He closed by saying the White House is being "diligent" about ways to grow the economy, boost energy security, manufacturing, jobs and "meet that climate imperative."
Between the lines: Zaidi's response clearly refused to embrace the oil and gas boom. However, earlier in the call, White House adviser John Podesta noted how LNG helped Europe replace Russian gas.
- But the explicit emphasis on the globe's transition away from fossil fuels fell short in at least one respect. It didn't openly acknowledge activists' calls for aggressive steps to stem fossil fuel production.
- And the White House has cited lower gasoline prices, aided by higher U.S. production, in seeking to parry attacks on Biden's energy record from Republicans.
- Biden also called for more oil production in an earlier stage of the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022.
- The GOP and industry critics argue the U.S. boom is occurring in spite of what they call overly restrictive Biden policies and reflects the fruits of much older decisions and investments.
The bottom line: Look for this political tightrope to get even thinner as the 2024 elections draw closer.
2. Is the U.S. a petro-state? No, but it's complicated


The complicated White House position on U.S. oil and gas reflects an unusual dynamic, Ben writes.
The big picture: The U.S. is the world's biggest producer of oil and natural gas, and the world's largest LNG exporter.
- But the diversified economy and other factors mean that overall, the U.S. isn't nearly as dependent on fossil fuel revenues as other huge players like Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Of note: That chart above shows data from wide-ranging International Monetary Fund assessments of national economies, called Article IV reports.
- Those reports don't show that overall federal dependence metric for oil produced in the U.S.
- But I consulted multiple experts who said it would be lower than what you see above.
Yes, but: Reliance on oil and gas revenues and jobs is extremely high for numerous U.S. local and state governments.
- The nonpartisan think tank Resources For the Future has a breakdown.
- In multiple states, oil and gas account for over 10% of state and local revenue; in some cases it's much more, RFF's Daniel Raimi tells me.
The big picture: Tallying the exact impact of the industry on the U.S. economy depends on what you count, but it's substantial.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics counts nearly 120,000 jobs in extraction alone, but that's just one part of the petro-value chain.
- A PwC study commissioned by the American Petroleum Institute, a major industry group, shows 2.3 million direct jobs β and far more if you count "indirect" employment.
- It says the sector directly represented 3.3% of total U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 β and if you look at spillover effects, it rises to 7.6%.
The bottom line: The domestic industry is very large, but the wider structure of the U.S. economy gives Biden running room to pursue transition.
3. ππ½ββοΈ Catch up fast on oil and gas
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
π Brent crude prices are back above $80 this morning amid anxiety over Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, Ben writes.
- What they're saying: "Thus far, the U.S.-led naval mission to mitigate Houthi attacks has failed to ease broad concerns of safe passage...with major maritime carriers still choosing to steer clear amid the tensions," IG strategist Yeap Jun Rong said via Reuters.
π The Interior Department will auction Gulf of Mexico leases later this morning in what will provide the latest snapshot of industry interest in the prolific basin.
- The big picture: It's slated to be the last U.S. offshore sale until 2025 as the Biden administration significantly pares back drilling bloc offerings.
- The intrigue: Bloomberg points out those future sales may also have less acreage up for grabs and tighter restrictions. "The uncertainty is set to drive up industry interest and bidding this week for the 10-year leases available," their story notes.
π΅ Shell announced a final investment decision to proceed with Sparta, a deepwater Gulf of Mexico project eventually slated to produce 90,000 barrels of oil-equivalent per day.
- State of play: Shell's latest project in the region is slated to start production in 2028 and "represents our competitive approach to simplifying and replicating projects," the company said.
4. White House seeks economic credit as 2024 looms
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
The White House is working harder than Santa's elves to demonstrate its climate agenda helps workers and the planet alike, Ben writes.
Driving the news: A Biden administration analysis and related blog post βΒ promoted on a press call with top aides β offer metrics to claim success of the 2022 climate law and other policies.
- It amounts to what officials repeatedly called "historic" efforts.
The big picture: The analysis cites $628 billion in "clean" energy and manufacturing investments announced in the U.S. under Biden.
- The report also notes 210,000 jobs in clean sectors created since the Inflation Reduction Act was signed, and manufacturing and deployment growth outpacing forecasts.
- Construction of manufacturing plants has added 0.3% to GDP growth this year, the largest contribution to total GDP growth since collection of this data began 60+ years ago, the White House said.
Why it matters: Biden's political footing on the economy is perilous, while GOP critics say his climate policies thwart even stronger growth in oil and gas sectors.
- A Republican White House victory and GOP gains in Congress would bring fresh attempts to pare back or repeal Democrats' climate law.
State of play: In a separate announcement, multiple agencies unveiled a formal agreement to help stand up the "American Climate Corps" unveiled months ago.
- It's the initiative to train young adults in low-carbon energy and climate resilience jobs, with a goal of 20,000 the first year.
Quick take: Beyond the economic message, this week's burst of policy announcements are aimed at touting various parts of Biden's agenda to overlapping constituencies.
- The climate corps has been a priority for young climate activists.
- And this morning, the Environmental Protection Agency and Vice President Kamala Harris unveiled $600 million for 11 grant-making organizations to fund environmental justice projects nationwide.
5. βοΈ Quote of the day
"Over the last year, I have noticed a major shift toward overall acceptance of nuclear ... I've spent a lot more time explaining how we scale the technology up rather than why we need it at all."β Bill Gates in his annual year-end letter
6. π¬ Number of the day: 18 (or more)
That's the pool of recently public electric vehicle and battery startups that risk running out of cash by the end of 2024, per new WSJ analysis.
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π Thanks to Chris Speckhard and Javier David for edits to today's edition, along with the talented Axios Visuals team.
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