Good morning and welcome back to week six of Generate! Has it been that long already? That went by fast. I'm already nostalgic for the early days, which might or might not explain the 80's-era image below. Let's move on with a reminder that you can sign-up for all the free Axios newsletters here. Ok let's dive in . . .
Get ready: The latest edition of Platts' Capitol Crude podcast that's out this morning brings fresh warnings about future oil supplies from a couple people who know their stuff.
Uh-oh: Longtime analyst Adam Sieminski, the former head of the Energy Information Administration, is the latest expert to warn that even though the world is swimming in oil these days thanks to the shale boom, the global supply-demand equation could get way more precarious in coming years.
Supply shock warning: It doesn't get much rosier when Michael Cohen, head of energy markets research at Barclays, looks into his crystal ball. He also warns that a supply crisis could happen in the next decade.
Axios' Amy Harder asked an administration official about the prospects of a carbon tax, given that it has been rumored as a possible policy the White House could embrace. The official said the biggest reason it won't fly is because Democrats and environmental groups won't support eliminating EPA carbon regulations in exchange for a carbon tax.
"We know we wouldn't get what we needed," the official said. "We're not going to get EPA preemption."
The backstory: Some fossil-fuel companies have indicated they could support a carbon tax if all EPA regulations related to climate change were eliminated. That trade has long been considered a non-starter with most Democrats and environmental groups. It still is.
Our Thought Bubble: Even if some congressional Republicans were to publicly support a carbon tax — a big if — this EPA issue would still be a sticking point. Former President Barack Obama had said for years EPA climate regulations should have been the stick to prod Congress to act on climate legislation. Now, it's the logjam preventing any climate compromise.
Brian Deese was President Obama's top White House climate adviser for his final two years in office — a busy time that included the Paris agreement.
On-the-record: An extensive interview that Deese, now a senior fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, gave to the U.K.-based Carbon Brief went up this morning. A few highlights from the 7,000-plus word chat.
Mixed emotions: Deese uses the words "damaging" and, internationally, "embarrassing" to describe Trump's moves to unwind Obama's climate policies. But... at several points he also argues that Trump has limited ability to alter the underlying expansion of low-carbon sources.
Economic risk: A common theme in the interview is that the U.S. stands to lose out economically if it backs away from the Paris agreement, missing out on markets for tech including carbon capture and nuclear.
Strategy: Deese highlights a consistent trend in polling — there's support for carbon emissions limits but, at the same time, climate isn't a priority for voters.
Deese points out that the world is not on track to hold the rise in global temperatures to under two degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels, the target of the Paris climate accord. But he believes there are still "real, credible" pathways to get there that don't require belief in "unicorns and fairytales."
We're all counting on you: Spring is here and that means summer is close and that means . . . oil traders are looking ahead to the U.S. summer driving season for Americans to help rebalance the market, Bloomberg reports.
Tesla: The EV and solar company is out with new images of its solar panels made by Panasonic, Electrek reports.
The world in charts:
to see International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol's presentation to the April 9-10 G-7 energy minister's meeting in Rome. Want a concise snapshot of some big global trends? He's got you covered.
Atlas Obscura looks at a cool relic of U.S. auto history: the colorful "motor agate," a byproduct of vehicle painting techniques from decades ago.
Beginning in the 1930s, spray painting techniques produced "large nuggets of excess paint, built up in layer after layer of color," which would harden right alongside with cars' coatings, their story notes.The globs were generally thrown away, but some of it is still around, and it's pretty cool looking (and makes nice jewelry).
Have a look at some of this "Fordite" above.
Thanks for reading! Today I'll be watching for anything good from the G-7 energy ministers meeting in Rome, where U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry is taking part. And please check out the Axios Stream for coverage of tech, healthcare, politics and more. I'll see you back here tomorrow, and as always, your tips and feedback are welcome at email@example.com.