This chart ☝️ puts a finer point on a big story we've been tracking: signs that U.S. oil output growth is stagnating and could decline soon.

Why it matters: President Trump wants to "drill baby drill."

• But many producers in the heart of the oil patch have other plans — and some say Trump's trade policies are discouraging drilling.

Driving the news: The Dallas Fed yesterday released its latest quarterly survey of execs in its region that includes the prolific Permian Basin.

• These anonymous surveys are hot commodities for anyone seeking the industry pulse.

State of play: The poll of exploration and production (E&P) firms and drilling contractors showed overall activity contracting slightly and production dipping as well in Q2.

• Looking ahead, the poll's average of price forecasts is $68 per barrel over the next year for WTI, the benchmark U.S. grade, roughly where it's at now.
• "Almost half of executives surveyed expect to drill fewer wells in 2025 than they planned at the start of the year," it states.
• Large producers (10,000+ barrels per day) were more likely to see drilling "significantly" fall.

What we're watching: Prices and input costs.

• If they drop to $60 per barrel and stay there, 61% expect their production to fall slightly over the next 12 months, while 9% see a big drop (see above).
• Twenty-seven percent of execs say the recent steel tariff hike will mean slightly fewer wells drilled, and 5% expect significantly fewer.

Threat level: "The Liberation Day chaos and tariff antics have harmed the domestic energy industry," one E&P exec told the Dallas Fed.

• "Drill, baby, drill will not happen with this level of volatility. Companies will continue to lay down rigs and frack spreads," said the exec, one of several criticizing the tariffs.

Flashback: The Q1 survey showed that on average, firms say they need oil at $65 to profitably drill new wells.

• The latest outlook from the Energy Department's independent stats arm projects a slight drop in the second half of this year and a slight annual decline in 2026.

Yes, but: A White House spokeswoman said Trump is making drilling easier by rolling back "stifling" Biden-era regulations.

• "The One, Big, Beautiful Bill's tax cuts and full equipment expensing will further turbocharge growth and investment by oil and gas companies — another reason Republicans need to get this bill across the finish line and onto the President's desk," Taylor Rogers said in a statement.

The big picture: U.S. output is already at record levels, and the country is by far the world's largest producer.

• Trump's "dominance" agenda includes more drilling access in offshore areas and Alaska. But those are very long-term projects.
• Today's economic picture, combined with shale producers' focus on capital discipline and shareholder payouts, is working against near-term growth.

What's next: The global market sways domestic drilling decisions, and OPEC+ will meet July 6 to decide on its next tranche of output increases.

Here are a few things I'll be watching now that the GOP budget plan is on the cusp of final passage and President Trump's signature.

📉 Renewables' and EVs' path ahead. Solar, wind and EVs face an aggressive loss of incentives in the plan.

• State of play: The Princeton-led REPEAT Project is out with preliminary estimates of the bill, which shakes up the landscape for many kinds of tech.
• The big picture: It sees $500 billion less in cumulative electricity and "clean fuels" investment from 2025-2035 than what would otherwise occur.
• What we're watching: The analysis sees 72 fewer gigawatts of wind and solar capacity additions by 2030.

🗳️ The midterm politics. Democrats will hit Republicans over reduced low-carbon energy investment in red states.

• Yes, but: The political salience of clean energy is hardly clear — the IRA did not appear to provide a big 2024 lift — so the midterms are the next test.

🛢️ Oil industry appetites. The bill expands and speeds up leasing, and under more favorable terms. That includes offshore and Arctic regions in Alaska.

• The big picture: These and other provisions reverse what Republicans and the industry call undue restrictions that Biden officials imposed on domestic energy.
• Yes, but: The new access will reveal industry interest — or lack thereof — in expensive, long-term projects in Alaska, home to massive hydrocarbon deposits.

🚗 Tesla's tough road. In addition to scuttling consumer purchase credits, the bill ends civil penalties on automakers that don't meet fuel efficiency rules.

• Threat level: This and Trump's executive steps to ease auto standards could greatly cut the market for regulatory credits. They're a major revenue source for Tesla, which is mired in a sales slump.

A tax loophole that encouraged consumers to lease, rather than buy, electric vehicles in recent years means a flood of used EVs will be hitting the market soon.

Why it matters: The expected wave of lease trade-ins will help fuel the next phase of EV adoption by giving price-conscious buyers more affordable choices.

The big picture: There aren't many crystal balls in the auto industry, but lease returns are rather easy to predict.

• Since vehicles are typically leased for two or three years, companies already know when those cars will be turned back for resale.

State of play: Nearly 1 million EVs were leased from the beginning of 2022 through the first quarter of 2025, according to Experian data analyzed by Cox Automotive.

• EV lease rates jumped from around 15% in 2022 to 67% by March 2025. Tesla, in particular, saw a spike in lease rates, per Cox. The industry's usual lease rate is about 25%.
• The surge had everything to do with a wrinkle in how the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was written.

What's next: Roughly 123,000 leased EVs (and plug-in hybrids) will return to the secondhand market this year, according to Recurrent Auto, a data firm that tracks the EV market.

• In 2026, the number will more than double to 329,000 EVs. By 2027, 650,000 leased EVs will be turned in.
• That's more than 1 million used EVs hitting the market in the next three years.

Full story

This chart captures the long-long-long term evolution of U.S. energy sources.

The big picture: The changes aren't stopping.

• An EIA primer notes that consumption of energy from fast-falling coal dipped below nuclear last year.