AI's huge power appetite is the talk of energy circles, but what's less certain is precisely how much it explains the wider data center growth underway.

Why it matters: It's a key question as policymakers and other stakeholders weigh AI's benefits against its carbon footprint.

The big picture: Data centers are one reason U.S. electricity use is rising after about 15 static years.

• The International Energy Agency projects data centers will be 6% of U.S. power demand by 2026, up from 4% in 2022.
• Further out, Barclays researchers see data centers accounting for 9% of demand in 2030 and far higher in their "upside" case, up from 3.5% today. McKinsey analysts estimate it even higher at 11%-12% in 2030.

State of play: Right now, a constellation of other needs accounts for much more than AI in data center power use.

• Think streaming services, storage and databases, payment processing and various business management systems, to name a few.
• Rhodium Group director Jeffery Jones estimates AI is around 5%-10% of U.S. data center power use today.

What's next: Energy use for training and using large language models like ChatGPT are growing fast from a small base — and spawning massive new data centers.

• "We're two steps into an ultramarathon, and I mean a really long ultramarathon," Jones tells Axios, noting that generative AI only arrived in earnest about two years ago.

Zoom in: Jones estimates that in 2025, "legacy" uses will account for 80% of U.S. power demand from data centers, while AI is 20%. By 2035, he projects, it's 50%-50%.

• Absent generative AI, he said there would still be demand growth in traditional data centers, but it would be fairly steady at 1.5% to 2% annually.

The intrigue: For now, there's a range of views in wonk-world.

• Electricity analyst Rob Gramlich estimates half the growth in data center energy suck in the next 3-5 years will be from AI.
• Goldman Sachs research shows that soaring growth from a small base could still leave non-AI uses playing the largest role in the medium term.
• It sees non-AI data center energy use rising from 142 terawatt hours in 2023 to 304 in 2030. AI-related uses soar from 4 TWh last year to 93 TWh in 2030.

Reality check: It's hard to predict how computing efficiency gains will stack up against rising AI use.

• And there's no bright line between what's AI vs. other advanced forms of machine learning. Complicating things further, traditional data centers handle some generative AI use.
• This is also a local story. Gigantic data centers for generative AI can bring big localized challenges for utilities and grid regulators.

The bottom line: AI is turbo-charging demand, but it's not the only factor.

Analysts are grappling with the fallout if Israel hits Iranian oil infrastructure, which would mark the first time the conflict directly affected petro-sites.

Catch up quick: Prices spiked yesterday and kept rising today after President Biden vaguely lent credence to the possibility, although White House officials cautioned against speculation.

• Asked if he'd support Israel striking Iran's oil facilities, Biden replied: "We're in discussion of that. I think — I think that would be a little — anyway."
• Iran exports roughly 1.7 million barrels per day.

What they're saying: Mizuho analyst Robert Yawger, in a note, predicted a $5 to $10 per barrel rise if Israel took out Iran's export capacity.

• That's significant, but not a full-scale freakout. That said, some experts see potential for bigger market turmoil.

"There is plenty of oil and several big producers looking to add barrels" to the market, he writes, noting OPEC+ plans to start unwinding some curbs late this year.

• OPEC+ has around 5.8 million barrels per day of spare capacity, he notes. U.S. output is at record levels, and Libya is resuming its interrupted production.
• RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft, in a note, sees the U.S. urging Saudi Arabia to boost supply if there's a "material disruption" or major price run-up.

The intrigue: Price responses to the year-old crisis — the "geopolitical risk premium" — have been relatively muted.

• That's thanks to rising output from the U.S. and other non-OPEC states, modest demand growth, and the cartel's ample spare capacity.
• Politico has a good look.

The bottom line: Hitting Iranian oil would be a new and uncertain phase.

⚠️ A Government Accountability Office report warns that despite some progress, the U.S. government is ill-prepared to manage its large climate-related financial risks.

• Why it matters: Thirteen experts GAO interviewed agreed that congressional action is needed. Lawmakers should create and fund new capacity to "prioritize climate resilience investments and limit federal fiscal exposure," GAO said.

🗓️ Via Bloomberg, "Duke Energy Corp. plans to extend the life of its largest coal-fired power plant, pushing aside its climate goal to shutter all facilities that burn the dirty fuel by 2035."

Starbucks has invested in two new farms in Costa Rica and Guatemala to bolster its "coffee innovation" work — and climate change is one reason why.

Why it matters: Coffee is among the crops that's vulnerable to global warming.

• Climate change can bring drought, "leaf rust disease," and other woes that affect yields and taste, the company said.

The big picture: The coffee giant says it's expanding work with farmers on several fronts.

• "Our solution is to develop on-farm interventions, share seeds, research and practices across the industry to help farmers mitigate the impacts of climate change," Michelle Burns, the executive VP of global coffee and sustainability, said in a statement.
• The new farms join Starbucks' existing, company-operated Hacienda Alsacia in Costa Rica purchased in 2013 to explore ways to future-proof the commodity.
• The work isn't only about climate change. CNBC reports, for instance, that one goal at the Guatemalan farm is addressing soil depletion.

What's next: Starbucks plans to expand the innovation farm network to Asia and Africa.

That's the planned DOE loan guarantee for EVgo to expand public fast-charging in the U.S.

Why it matters: More infrastructure is needed to help get drivers comfy with EVs.

• And the preliminary $1 billion commitment is the first EV charging support from DOE's loan office.