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I want to re-up some Axios news: Sinocism's Bill Bishop, one of the world's most wired experts on China, is moving his weekly newsletter to Axios this week! Bill will bring Axios China subscribers the most important U.S.-China news and analysis. Sign up here.
And happy birthday to Joni Mitchell, who turns 74 today, so her lovely voice is our
intro track today
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Crystal ball: OPEC is out today with its big annual World Oil Outlook, a detailed analysis of supply and demand trends in coming decades that puts meat on the bones of some top-line conclusions that Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo offered in London last month.
Why it matters: Yes, OPEC has plenty of reasons to shape a narrative around future oil demand. But the forecast nonetheless adds a detailed entry to the mix of analyses of the global energy pictures, and shows how the powerful cartel is positioning itself.
A few takeaways...
No peak: The outlook shows global demand growing through 2040 — the end of the forecast period — to reach 111 million barrels per day by then (a slight increase over their last projection), although the growth rate slows during the latter parts of the forecast to 300,000 barrels per day during 2035–2040.
Don't call it a comeback: The report shows OPEC's importance to global crude supply reasserting itself. The outlook projects that U.S. production will keep rising sharply for years but then tight oil — the driver of the U.S. surge — peaks around 2025 and then starts declining.
Spending needed: The report forecasts that meeting global oil demand will require $10.5 trillion in global investment between now and 2040, with $7.9 trillion of that needed in the upstream sector to ensure a "balanced and stable market."
An new coalition of grid and transmission technology companies has formed to promote policies that they say could save consumers and businesses billions of dollars by enabling crucial system upgrades that ease congestion.
Unveiled today: The Working for Advanced Transmission Technologies (WATT) coalition includes Genscape, NewGrid, Smart Wires and others. It will promote the deployment of: advanced power flow control, dynamic line ratings, topology optimization, and other technologies for existing grids.
Policy goals: "A FERC-approved transmission tariff that allows the transmission owner/operator to share in the savings that result from reducing costly congestion from better operations," Rob Gramlich, the group's executive director, told Axios.
Strategy: "Our main focus will be working with interested transmission owners and their regulator, FERC, to fashion tariff changes that can work for them and their customers. We will do some electric industry communications through trade press and conferences," he said.
A system in transition: A new International Energy Agency report takes stock of how info and communications tech — or "digitalization" — is reshaping the energy sector.
Perry follow-up: A piece over at The Conversation takes another look at something my Axios colleague Amy Harder unpacked here — Energy secretary Rick Perry's claim that fossil fuels can help prevent sexual assault in developing countries.
AI deals: Greentech Media looks at a new BDO study that shows a big increase in energy sector dealmaking in the artificial intelligence and big data space. "The study...found mergers and acquisitions involving energy companies and AI startups had soared in average value from around $500 million in the first quarter of 2017 to $3.5 billion in the second quarter," they report.
Wind layoffs: Turbine giant Siemens Gamesa announced Monday that it plans to shed 6,000 jobs worldwide in what the company called a "necessary step to strengthen the group and consolidate its position as a market leader."
Amy's got a piece in the Axios stream that adds some context to a new oil-and-gas industry ad. Here's part of it...
The American Petroleum Institute is running a new online advertising campaign touting natural gas as a reliable and resilient electricity source. The word "oil" doesn't show up once.
Why it matters: The group, one of the most powerful in Washington representing the oil and natural gas industry, is releasing the ad to respond directly to the Trump administration's recent regulatory push to favor coal and nuclear power plants over others, including ones powered by natural gas. Perry is pushing that initiative, contending it will make the electric grid more resilient.
Tesla, no. 1: There has been yet another Tesla departure: via Gizmodo Media's Jalopnik, Tesla's director of battery engineering has left the company.
My Axios colleague Steve LeVine notes that the news comes after the August departure of Kurt Kelty, who was director of battery technology and had been with Tesla since 2006, before the company produced its first car. A little more from Steve's item...
Tesla, no. 2: "Tesla Inc. has acquired Perbix, a closely held maker of automated machines used for manufacturing, as the electric-car maker struggles to boost production of its most important new model," Bloomberg reports.
Climate, no. 1: A new S&P Global Ratings report looks at the financing that must be mobilized to meet nations' emissions pledges — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — under the Paris agreement.
Climate, no. 2: Via the Axios stream yesterday, a piece that explores the shrinking of an iconic and important lake...
Tech: Via Platts, "Energy majors BP, Shell and Statoil are to co-develop a blockchain-based digital platform for energy trading."