4. What "net-zero" for the U.S. really looks like...
A major Princeton University-led analysis concludes there's a range of economically beneficial and technologically feasible options for reaching "net-zero" U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 — but big investments and supportive policies would need to begin now.
The big picture: President-elect Joe Biden has embedded that 2050 target in his plan and a number of states and major corporations share that goal or similar ones.
More broadly, net-zero emissions by midcentury is considered a global goal for avoiding some of the most damaging effects of climate change.
Why it matters: Setting top-line targets, which is very popular these days, is very different from actually creating viable ways to meet them.
The study offers a highly granular analysis of the technologies and deployment pathways that could transform top-line targets to on-the-ground changes to the U.S. energy system in different regions.
- The analysis envisions $2.5 trillion in "additional capital investment into energy supply, industry, buildings, and vehicles over the next decade relative to business as usual."
- However, the researchers find that "total annualized U.S. energy expenditures would increase by less than 3% over 2021-2030."
- Overall, “the cost of oil shocks exceed the costs of this net-zero transition,” Princeton University assistant professor Jesse Jenkins, a co-author, told reporters.
Reality check: None of this is easy at all! Quite the opposite. The study notes the pathways would all require unprecedented rates of deployment of a slew of technologies.
It also requires not only new capital investments but steps to encourage and incentivize consumer changes, like electric vehicle uptake.
How it works: Check out the chart above.
The pathways that involve varying levels of renewable power increases, building and vehicle electrification, bioenergy, carbon capture and storage, nuclear energy, enhanced carbon "land sinks" via better forest and farm practices, and more.
All result in net energy-sector employment increases and benefit public health by cutting air pollution.
Yes, but: While that chart shows annual power generation in the net-zero pathways, the study also emphasizes the need to have large amounts of clean and "firm" generating capacity to pair with renewables.
Those options include natural gas plants converted to run on hydrogen, gas- or biomass-fired plants with CO2 capture, advanced nuclear or geothermal.