A startup using AI to guide geologic exploration believes it has found a major Australian deposit of indium, a rare metal used in solar panels, LCD screens and semiconductors.

Why it matters: Earth AI's location of what appear to be commercial concentrations shows applications for AI in the mining sector.

• In this case, it means finding indium outside of China, currently the biggest supplier, as the U.S. and other nations scramble to diversify sourcing.

Driving the news: The company, which recently raised a $20 million Series B round, told Axios exclusively that it located signs of a deposit on an outcropping roughly 310 miles northwest of Sydney.

• Some assays show up to 117 parts per million and multiple samples show over 20 ppm.
• "Ore grades for Indium typically begin at 1 ppm In, underscoring the high-grade nature of this outcrop," the announcement states.

How it works: The company has trained an AI model to predict subsurface conditions where large amounts of specific minerals and metals have likely formed.

• "A mineral deposit is like a seed in an apple. The apple is the hydrothermal system, the seed is the [mineral] deposit. It's hard to detect the seed, it's through hundreds of meters of rock, but it's easier to detect an apple," founder and CEO Roman Teslyuk tells Axios.
• "We train an AI system to detect favorable geological conditions where deposits form," he said.

Catch up quick: It's the latest of several finds for the startup formed in 2017, including recently announced deposits of palladium, platinum and nickel.

• Its business model envisions selling rights to extraction companies once Earth AI has found deposits. It also provides services to companies for locating minerals on their holdings.
• Australia's regulatory system makes company geophysical data available, giving the firm decades of granular info that's part of a "massive training dataset," Teslyuk said.
• He calls it a major break with older, "dogmatic" exploration methods that work for shallow deposits, but now the "low-hanging fruit" has been picked.

What's next: Drilling at the Kooranjie Project, where it holds rights and is already exploring other prospects there like tin and tungsten, Teslyuk said.

• Earth AI touts a proprietary drilling process that it says disturbs much less land than traditional methods.
• "Indium is next on the list to go in and start drilling and taking core samples and assess the full potential," Teslyuk said.

A major EPA climate grant program in the Inflation Reduction Act would create tens of thousands of jobs and nearly $24 billion in additional wages over the next six years, a new analysis first viewed by Axios finds.

Why it matters: The study by Energy Innovation — a think tank that backs strong CO2-cutting policies — lands as Capitol Hill Republicans look to end the $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund.

• And EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin is already seeking to terminate most of it using existing authorities, alleging various abuses, but the efforts are tied up in court.
• The fund is the largest non-tax investment in the 2022 law.

Driving the news: The study of $24 billion targeted for project finance notes that while the fund's main goal is embedded in its name, the program would have big economic spillovers.

• Energy Innovation — whose CEO, Sonia Aggarwal, is a former Biden White House climate aide — sees an average of 36,000 to 41,000 extra jobs annually compared to current policies.
• It also estimates $52 billion in consumer energy cost savings over 20 years and total investment in the U.S. economy of almost $65.5 billion.

Catch up quick: Much of the fund, dubbed a "green bank," stakes nonprofits that will, in turn, seek to build and sustain a wide network of community finance institutions.

• They planned to provide low-cost loans and other aid, and it was designed to leverage private capital.
• Zeldin has called the program rife with conflicts and abuses, though a federal judge has called out EPA for failing to provide specific evidence.

What we're watching: The fund's fate in the courts, and in Congress, where today the House Energy and Commerce Committee marks up budget legislation that would end it.

NRG Energy's stock soared over 26% yesterday on news of its $12 billion deal to buy gas-fired power plants and a major virtual power plant platform from LS Power.

Why it matters: NRG is voting with its wallet that the demand growth narrative is accurate and lasting — and the market seems to agree.

• The deal positions the company well for the "Power Market Supercycle," with data centers as a big driver, the investor deck states.
• It adds 18 more gas-fired plants, totaling 13 gigawatts, to NRG's stable.

Two powerful House panels will formally start hacking away at the Democrats' 2022 climate law today.

Why it matters: The GOP proposals are slated for special bills immune from Senate filibuster to align policy with Republican budget goals.

Catch up quick: The Ways and Means Committee yesterday unveiled its reconciliation plan and will start marking it up today.

• It would quickly scuttle most consumer EV incentives and hydrogen production tax credits, while greatly paring back manufacturing and clean power subsidies.
• Separately, the Energy and Commerce panel will start marking up its bill that would rescind various IRA grant funds and EPA regulations.

The intrigue: TD Washington Research Group analysts, in a note, said they were surprised by the "draconian" approach to hydrogen credits.

• They're also surprised by the preservation of bonus "adders" in clean electricity credits.

What they're saying: While the plan would greatly pare back the 2022 climate law, it stops well short of wholesale repeal.

• "The proposal is mostly a win for US solar manufacturers and developers," Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Rob Barnett told Bloomberg.
• "The fear is that the investment and production tax credits could have been gutted sooner."

What we're watching: Possible amendments to preserve more tax credits in the Ways and Means markup.

• Some GOP lawmakers are skittish about losing incentives that are spurring projects in their districts.

📉 U.S. investment in low-carbon energy and transport dropped nearly 4% in Q1 compared to the last three months of 2024 but showed year-over-year growth, a new Rhodium Group-MIT analysis shows.

• Why it matters: It's the second consecutive quarterly drop. A combo of policy uncertainty and high interest rates, inflation, and global supply chain challenges are all affecting investment, Rhodium associate director Hannah Hess tells Ben via email.
• Yes, but: Despite the decline, the clean sectors they track were nearly 5% of private investment in structures, equipment, and durable consumer goods in Q1, totaling over $67 billion.
• How it works: The report tracks public and private outlays in three areas — clean manufacturing; energy production and industrial emissions-cutting projects; and retail home and business purchases of stuff like EVs and heat pumps.
• The bottom line: Investment has been on a generally upward march for years, reaching over $270 billion last year. But the investment landscape is getting rockier. Full analysis.

☀️ Aligned Climate Capital collected over $240 million for its sixth fund that will invest in community solar projects, Axios Pro Deals scooped yesterday

• State of play: The fund is the firm's sixth infrastructure fund. But it's first with predominantly institutional investors, including insurance companies, endowments, foundations, and family offices invested in Aligned Solar Partners 6.
• Go deeper: Unlock the whole story and talk to our sales team about Axios Pro Deals for a steady diet of scoops and smart analysis.

Global average temperatures in April were 2.20°F above the 20th-century baseline, per a new NOAA analysis.

• The agency, like its European counterpart, found that last month was the second-warmest April in records that date back to the 1800s. Full report.