Axios Generate

April 30, 2025
🥞 Good morning! Come for an update on the fast-moving fight over deep-sea mining, stay for items on AI, nuclear costs and much more, all in just 1,264 words, 5 minutes.
🚨 Situational awareness: U.S. oil prices slid back under $60 per barrel this morning, with WTI trading at $60.01 as we sent this edition.
- What they're saying: "Lingering tariff risks and expectations of OPEC+ loosening output curbs continue to pressure oil prices," ING analysts said in a note that also cites industry data on rising inventories.
🎸 Indie rockers the Yeah Yeah Yeahs dropped their debut album "Fever to Tell" this week in 2003, and it provides today's intro tune...
1 big thing: Deep-sea mining battle is getting very real, very fast
The quest to exploit deep-sea mineral resources — and debates over benefits and harms — is intensifying in D.C. and internationally.
Why it matters: U.S. regulators are now weighing an actual proposal after The Metals Company yesterday said it submitted applications for exploration and extraction in a swath of international Pacific waters.
- It follows President Trump's executive order last week that supports development despite the absence of International Seabed Authority rules.
Driving the news: The proposed exploration licenses cover a region that could provide an estimated 15.5 million tonnes of nickel, 12.8 million tonnes of copper, 2.0 million tonnes of cobalt, and 345 million tonnes of manganese, the company said.
- The materials are bound up in polymetallic seafloor nodules in a region called the Clarion-Clipperton Zone that various nations and companies covet.
The intrigue: A House Natural Resources hearing yesterday underscored the intense disputes.
- Backers say the industry can safely extract large volumes — helping the U.S. mineral security and economic postures while minimizing environmental risks.
- "The real world data has debunked every major activist claim against deep-sea nodule collection," The Metals Company CEO Gerard Barron told the panel, expanding on his case in written testimony.
The other side: Many scientists and environmentalists fear irreversible damage to sensitive ecosystems if commercial extraction proceeds.
- "Scientific information and understanding about the deep sea is critically lacking. Ninety percent of 5,000 species in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone are still undescribed," Duncan Currie, an adviser to the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition, told the panel.
- He warned of sea-floor damage, harmful plumes and noise. The NYT has more on the hearing.
What we're watching: How the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weighs The Metals Company applications.
- The agency's political leadership, following Trump's EO last week, said it would expeditiously review them but also ensure "environmental compliance measures consistent with applicable law."
- Erik Noble, a high-level Trump appointee there, said in a statement that the U.S. will "lead the world" in deep-sea extraction and that NOAA is the "tip of the spear" supporting the efforts.
Friction point: A former Biden administration official familiar with ocean policy debates said there's no way NOAA will undertake a proper vetting.
- The former official — who spoke on condition of anonymity — tells Axios there will be "tremendous pressure from the administration to fast-track the application."
- "I don't think there is anyone there with the knowledge or clout to push back and demand a proper review," the former official said.
What's next: NOAA is expected to decide whether the exploration and commercial recovery applications are fit for review in 30 and 60 days, respectively, The Metals Company said.
- If so, a full environmental and technical review would follow, it said.
2. 👟 Catch up quick on policy: offshore wind, Congress, EPA
⚖️ Equinor just gave a stronger sign that it could litigate the Interior Department's stop-construction order on its Empire Wind project off New York's coast.
- State of play: "[T]he order to halt work now is unprecedented and in our view unlawful," CEO Anders Opedal said in a statement alongside Equinor's Q1 earnings. The site OffshoreWind has more.
💼 Speaking of offshore wind, the anti-development group Green Oceans has hired lobbyists for the first time, filings show.
- Catch up quick: It has retained the firms Innovative Advocacy and EdNexus Advisors.
💵 The House transportation panel will mark up legislation today that would impose new fees on EVs and cut IRA grant funding.
- Why it matters: Republicans are getting more specific in their plans for budget legislation that's immune from Senate filibusters. Go deeper via Axios Pro.
✂️ Via The Washington Post, EPA "plans to cancel a total of 781 grants issued under President Joe Biden, EPA lawyers wrote in a little-noticed court filing last week, almost twice the number previously reported."
3. 🔀 In my earbuds: Nvidia boss on energy
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sat for a long interview with the AI, Energy and Climate Podcast.
Why it matters: No, he's not a dispassionate observer. But for the optimistic case on the energy and clean tech upsides of AI despite all the power needed to train and use models, it's a good and accessible listen.
The big picture: At one point the interview delves into why, he says, AI queries will be less power-intensive than more traditional methods.
- "Right now, while we're talking, every question you give me, I could run up to my office, pull up my laptop, go retrieve the information, and bring the information back to you to read yourself. That's today's computer.
- But instead, I just tell you what my answer is. I'm generating it on the spot. And so generative AI ... you think it requires more energy, because, yeah, my brain, you know, consumes 35 watts. And without 35 watts, I can't generate this information at all. However, the amount of energy I saved, not running to my office, opening up my laptop, retrieving the information, bringing it back to you ... the amount of energy that's saved as a result of that is incredible."
4. ⚛️ Cost estimates muddy nuke timelines


Small modular reactors could reshape power delivery to data centers, remote communities and military bases, but they face plenty of roadblocks before promise becomes delivery.
Why it matters: Developing tech is one thing, but how much it costs, and how long it takes to deliver, is another.
The big picture: Small modular reactors are, in theory, competitive with other types of 24/7 electricity generation in the U.S.
Yes, but: Cost estimates vary wildly.
- The average projected cost to build and run the first commercial SMRs in the U.S. ranges from the mid-$60s per megawatt-hour to the $120s/MWh — with some estimates reaching beyond $200/MWh.
Case in point: The most prominent developer, NuScale, saw its first project canceled in 2023 after costs more than doubled to $9.3 billion.
State of play: If developers can keep costs between the $60s and the $120s, SMRs can potentially compete with gas, traditional large nuclear reactors, and solar and wind paired with battery storage.
- Those more conventional types of electricity generation also face price volatility based on equipment costs, fuel prices and federal policy.
Reality check: The first commercial reactor remains years away.
The full story first appeared in the weekend Axios Pro Rata Premium newsletter. Talk to our sales team about Axios Pro Deals for a steady diet of scoops and smart analysis.
5. 🚀 Jigar Shah launches clean tech advisory firm
Jigar Shah and Jonathan Silver, former Energy Department officials and longtime sector investors, announced yesterday that they're launching Multiplier, a consulting firm for green startups.
Why it matters: The founders led the Energy Department's Loan Programs Office under Presidents Biden and Obama, respectively.
Driving the news: The new firm plans to focus on startups developing low-carbon energy, water, sanitation, housing, transportation and infrastructure, according to an email announcing the firm's launch.
- It aims to help founders avoid getting "stuck in pilot hell," as well as mismatched capital and unrealistic valuations.
- The firm will take equity stakes in the startups it advises, rather than charging fees.
Catch up quick: Shah, who founded and led solar firm SunEdison, was co-founder and president of climate-focused investment firm Generate Capital.
- Silver chairs the Global Climate Council at Apollo Global Management and has held board seats at low-carbon energy companies.
6. 🔋 Number of the day: $100 billion
That's how much the U.S. storage sector has pledged to invest in U.S. grid-scale battery manufacturing and storage, saying it would create 350,000 jobs by 2030.
Yes, but: The pledge, via the American Clean Power Association, rests on a "pro-business environment, supported by stable tax and trade policy and streamlined permitting."
- That caveat comes as Congress is weighing the fate of the IRA, which provides first-time incentives for stand-alone storage projects and manufacturing subsidies, too. Reuters has more.
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🙏 Thanks to Chris Speckhard and Chuck McCutcheon for edits to today's edition, along with the brilliant Axios Visuals team.
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