Axios Gaming

August 10, 2023
Happy Thursday!
We have seven items today, brought to you by me and some stellar colleagues. Let's get into it.
Today's edition: 1,674 words, 6.5 minutes
1 big thing: Sequel waits are getting longer


Big video game sequels are taking more years than ever to make it to players, Axios' Kavya Beheraj, Sara Wise and I report.
Driving the news: Whether it's Zelda or God of War or Assassin's Creed or Forza, new installments take more time to develop than they did a decade ago, as annual releases or two-year gaps give way to dev cycles lasting five years or more.
- There are exceptions: the still-annualized Call of Duty, made by rotating development studios, and the clockwork-like, iterative yearly sports games from EA and Take Two.
What they're saying: "Used to be two years was a reasonable window for a sequel," Cowen analyst Doug Creutz tells Axios. "Now, I think three years is bare minimum."
State of play: Experts tell Axios there are myriad reasons for the slowdown, including the recent disruption of the pandemic, the increased complexity of modern game development and changes to gaming's core business model.
- Fans expect bigger, more graphically detailed games each time out, several developers mentioned to Axios, which requires bigger teams and richer budgets.
- The often-painstaking process of finding the fun in game design, requiring multiple iterations and the scrapping of lots of work, doesn't get any faster with more people on board.
Meanwhile, each big new game, sequel or not, is a high-stakes, eight- or nine-figure investment that has to soar to make a profit.
- To make their money back, publishers have de-emphasized quick-turnaround sequels by diverting resources into a single big game's expansions and seasons of post-release content, chasing recurring live-service game revenue.
- One technique that used to mask long sequel gaps — the release of smaller semi-sequels, often made for dedicated handheld systems like Sony's PlayStation Portable or Nintendo's 3DS — have disappeared, as that kind of hardware has gone extinct.
Between the lines: Exhibit A of the industry's sequel slowdown is Rockstar's Grand Theft Auto, which next month will hit a decade without a new release.
The bottom line: "At the end of the day, management teams are looking to minimize risk and volatility of results," Cowen's Creutz says.
- That means sequels still might be favored by executives over original games, but even those sequels are no longer abundant from the biggest publishers.
- "There just aren't as many games being made overall," Creutz says.
2. Microsoft's D.C. help
Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Phil Barker/Future Publishing via Getty Images
Microsoft's push last spring to overcome Sony's resistance to its bid for Activision Blizzard got a boost from Capitol Hill, Axios Tech Policy Pro's Maria Curi and I report.
Driving the news: The company wasn't shy about making its case against the Federal Trade Commission's opposition to the deal nor from tapping D.C. lawmakers when it could.
What they're saying: "Sony was pretty aggressively trying to advocate against the acquisition with the commission. And so I said, 'What can I do to help?'" Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-North Dakota, told Maria in late April regarding his interest in supporting Microsoft's Activision bid.
- Cramer described Microsoft as "important corporate citizens" and a valuable employer in Fargo, North Dakota, where its campus directly supports more than 100 jobs.
- "We like growth opportunities for Microsoft," he said.
- In early April, Cramer's desire to help had resulted in a letter his office sent to Sony's CEO, accusing it of anticompetitive dominance in the industry and pressing it to divulge details of its exclusivity contracts with game publishers. (A Sony rep noted to Axios that it considers exclusivity deals a normal part of industry business.)
Flashback: Cramer's letter came on the heels of Democrat and Republican U.S. representatives pressing U.S. trade officials in March over Sony's market strength in Japan and whether its dealmaking violated U.S.-Japan trade treaties.
Be smart: Microsoft reported spending $2.3 million this past spring to lobby the House and Senate over a wide range of tech issues, including trade, competition, cybersecurity and national defense. (It's far from alone: Google spent more than $3.4 million; the game industry's trade group, the ESA, spent $1.3 million)
- Among Microsoft's lobbying expenses: $90,000 in Q1 and the same in Q2 to the Tiber Creek Group for, among other topics, "issues related to trade barriers for video games."
- Asked about whether that lobbying specifically involved the Sony-Japan issue, a Microsoft rep said: "We have a long relationship with Tiber Creek, working on various policy issues. On our work to close the Activision deal, we've made all our arguments publicly."
3. Report: The industry's global "correction" is over
The video game industry will return to growth this year, generating $187.7 billion, after a small "corrective" decline last year fueled by a strong console market, according to industry tracker NewZoo's 2023 global games market report.
- Newzoo estimates there will be 3.4 billion gamers this year (more than half in Asia-Pacific), 1.47 billion of them paying in some way to play. Those numbers are up from a year ago by 6.3% and 7.3%, respectively.
4. Roblox's surprise developments
Hamilton Simulator. Screenshot: Super League
Famous brands being turned into Roblox experiences is now routine, but two new ones announced this week stand out.
Hamilton x Roblox: Hamilton Simulator, debuting today, is a kid-targeted "Hamilton" tribute that plays the famous musical's soundtrack (instrumentals only) while users get to re-enact moments from the play. The experience is free, but developer Super League will offer a (resalable) limited-edition, virtual King George III cape to the first 10,000 users who progress to the experience's second area.
- Super League's president, Matt Edelman, is the brother of Hamilton chief operating officer Maggie Brohn. "She had been considering for a couple of years how "Hamilton" could appear authentically within the gaming and immersive platforms," Edelman tells Axios. The two decided to team up.
Roblox x Roblox: Roblox is putting itself into Roblox with the creation of a virtual Roblox Career Center that the company says is designed to reach early-career candidates regardless of their location.
- Virtual attendees can study up on the company and meet with recruiters.
- "Coming soon, we'll be inviting candidates to conduct certain initial interviews directly within the experience," the company noted.
Be smart: Roblox reported 65.5 million daily active users for the spring, but lower-than-expected earnings results on Wednesday caused its stock price to dive 20%.'
5. Need to know
🎮 Actor Keith David will assume the role of Commander Zavala in future expansions to Destiny 2, replacing the late Lance Reddick, who voiced the character for nine years, Bungie announced today.
🥊 Fighting game tournament Evo drew 23,000 competitors and fans to its Las Vegas event, organizers announced.
😲 Sentinels, an L.A.-based e-sports organization that fields a top team in Riot Games' Valorant, has launched a crowd-funding investment campaign in the hopes to help cover nearly $700,000 in monthly payroll and other expenses.
- Even if Sentinels' maximum goal is hit, it'll only fund operations for a little over five months, Dextero reports.
📈 Daily viewership on Twitch continues to rise, up to 57.3 million hours/day in July, according to Stream Elements and data partner Rainmaker.gg. Top Twitch categories were Just Chatting, followed by Grand Theft Auto V, League of Legends and Valorant.
👩🏻⚖️ The U.S. Supreme Court denied Epic Games' request to force Apple to drop its anti-steering restrictions and allow app makers to direct users out of Apple's ecosystem to purchase items for apps, Ars Technica reports. Apple has been appealing a lower court's mandate on that issue.
🍎 Apple and The Tetris Company are being sued by Gizmodo editor-in-chief Dan Ackerman, who alleges that Apple's "Tetris" ripped off his 2016 book "The Tetris Effect" in the manner with which the movie presented its take on the origins of the famous video game, Reuters reports.
👀 Twitch streamer Kai Cenat says he will handle future meetups the "correct" way after a Friday gaming giveaway in New York City resulted in arrests and charges against Cenat for inciting a riot, Kotaku reports.
💰 Take-Two Interactive's losses for the spring quarter rose to $206 million, double that of a year ago, despite a rise in consumer spending, Games Industry reports.
🤔 Sony sold 3.3 million PlayStation 5 units this spring, more than a year ago but off pace for its target of 25 million for the 12 months ending March 2024, prompting price drops.
🩺 Fatal arrhythmias from playing video games are "extremely rare," according to a new study that was intended to check on earlier, anecdotal reports of such risks.
6. The week ahead
Radiant SIlvergun. Screenshot: Treasure, Live Wire
Friday, Aug. 11
- THQ Nordic's 2023 showcase is held.
Saturday-Sunday, Aug. 12-13
- The Pokémon World Championships are held in Yokohama, Japan, Friday-Sunday.
- Speedrunning festival Flame Fatales begins Sunday.
Monday, Aug. 14
- Verne: The Shape of Fantasy (PC) is released.
Tuesday, Aug. 15
- Moving Out 2 (PC, console) is released.
Wednesday, Aug. 16
- The Cosmic Wheel Sisterhood (PC) and En Garde (PC) are released.
Thursday, Aug. 17
- The Embracer Group reports quarterly earnings.
- Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew (PC, PlayStation, Xbox), Vampire Survivors (Switch, already out on PC, PlayStation, Xbox and movie) and Red Dead Redemption (Switch, PS4, already out on Xbox 360) are released.
Friday, Aug. 18
- Bomb Rush Cyberfunk (PC, Switch), Madden NFL 24 (PC, PlayStation, Xbox), arcade classic shoot-em-up Radiant Silvergun (PC, already out on Switch and Xbox) and The Texas Chainsaw Massacre (PC, PlayStation, Xbox) are released.
7. I played... Dave the Diver
Dave the Diver. Screenshot: Mintrocket
I recently tried starting Dave the Diver (out on PC, coming to Switch) and two hours later I had to tell myself to stop playing — and I finally listened about 10 minutes after that.
- The game has been a surprise hit for development studio Mintrocket since emerging from early access in late June. It has sold more than 1 million copies and has an "overwhelmingly positive" review rating across 46,000 user reviews on Steam.
- There's a reason for that: The game's fantastic.
How it works: The game is split between diving and managing a sushi restaurant.
- By day, you upgrade Dave's gear, as he dives ever deeper to catch more exotic fish (and find treasure, rescue dolphins, etc.).
- By night, you work with a chef to serve that fish to a steady flow of customers, hiring coworkers to help while trying to generate social media buzz to attract more diners.
- Profits from a good night at the restaurant fund more ambitious dives. And so the loop continues.
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🐦 Find me on Twitter or Threads, @stephentotilo.
Thank you to Scott Rosenberg for editing and James Gilzow for copy editing this newsletter.
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