A pair of new analyses offers data-rich guides to the environmental stakes of the AI boom.

Why it matters: They show how many different kinds of impact data centers can have — including their water needs, but others too.

Driving the news: The UN's academic arm warns that too often a "carbon-only lens" dominates the topic.

• "'[L]ow-carbon' is not automatically 'low-water' or 'low-land,'" states the report from United Nations University (UNU).
• "Evaluating sustainability through a single metric can hide trade-offs and shift burdens onto places already facing water stress or land pressure."

🧮 Stunning stats: On "current trajectories," data center power demand could be "nearly triple" the combined annual electricity use of Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nigeria by 2030, the report finds.

• ⚡ It would be equivalent to the sixth-largest power-consuming country.
• 💧 The "associated water footprint" would equal the "annual domestic water needs of all 1.3 billion residents of Sub-Saharan Africa."
• 🧑‍🌾 "The land footprint associated with this electricity would exceed 14,500 km², nearly 10 times the size of Mexico City."
• 🥐 "AI infrastructure could generate up to 2.5 million metric tons of e-waste annually by 2030, equivalent to discarding nearly 250 Eiffel Towers every year."

The other report, from Bank of America, finds that "most US water utilities have yet to fully account for the water implications of AI‑driven infrastructure growth."

• About 75% of water use is from "off-site" needs — power generation and hardware manufacturing.
• For looking within data centers, it's also a good resource for exploring the water vs. electricity tradeoffs of different chip cooling methods that Amy touched on this week.

Zoom out: AI can boost climate-friendly tech, such as helping create better battery chemistries. And tech giants are staking new clean energy projects.

• But there's backlash over data centers' effect on power bills — real or perceived — as well as energy demands, and emissions from coal and gas helping to meet it.

Yes, but: One emerging school of thought is that the AI buildout offers a unique chance to spur U.S. grid modernization that's desperately needed anyway.

What we're watching: The UN report offers principles for building a "responsible AI ecosystem" globally.

• The analysis is not a case against AI, said Kaveh Madani, head of UNU's Institute for Water, Environment and Health.
• "It is a call for using it responsibly and addressing its unintended impacts proactively to make it sustainable and equitable," he said in a statement.

Trump administration officials yesterday offered specifics on hundreds of millions of dollars in Energy Department funding to boost coal-fired power and ship more coal overseas.

Why it matters: The cash could stem coal's steady decline in the U.S. power mix.

Zoom in: Here's the list of 13 coal-fired plants in states nationwide where DOE plans to provide a combined $425 million to upgrade and extend the sites' operations.

• There's a separate funding tranche to support proposed new power plants in Alaska and West Virginia. They would be the first new U.S. projects since a Texas coal plant came online in 2013.

What we're watching: Via the NYT, Andy Blumenfeld, a coal analyst with the consultancy McCloskey by OPIS, said new plants face hurdles.

• "Now, what happens when the next administration comes in? Will they put a stop to it? I think that that's an enormous risk," he said.

The 1970s oil-shock playbook needs an update: The inflation costs remain, but the employment risks appear far smaller than they did 50 years ago.

Why it matters: As the Iran war continues, there are early signs of renewed strength in the labor market.

• If energy disruptions pose less of a risk to jobs, the challenge for central banks shifts from managing stagflation risks to guarding against renewed price pressures.

That's the takeaway from new Federal Reserve Bank of Boston research that finds an oil shock the size of what the Iran war has produced would push inflation materially higher while having essentially no effect on national employment.

The big picture: "The U.S. economy's vulnerability to oil shocks has not been eliminated, but rather reconfigured," economists wrote in the report. "Oil shocks may now pose less of a challenge for monetary policy, allowing policymakers to focus more on the upside risk to inflation."

Full story via the Axios Macro newsletter

⚛️ School's out for summer! Microreactor startup Antares Nuclear's design passed a "criticality demonstration" at DOE's Idaho National Laboratory, DOE said.

• Why it matters: The test confirms it can operate safely, a milestone toward eventually bringing power-generating units into operation, DOE said.
• State of play: It's one of several advanced reactor designs in a DOE testing program. Bloomberg has more.
• What we're watching: Antares, which still requires other federal approvals, hopes to start deploying reactors at U.S. military installations in 2028.

⏸️ The New York state legislature yesterday approved a one-year moratorium on large new data centers. The bill also would require new environmental studies and electricity rate classes.

• Why it matters: It's a stark sign of growing pushback to AI infrastructure.
• Yes, but: Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has not said whether she'll veto it.

The rush to power data centers with onsite gas turbines — efficiency be damned in some cases — is hitting snags, a new analysis finds.

Why it matters: Tech companies are turning to various kinds of turbines in the "speed to power" quest to quickly get projects online.

• Market intel firm Cleanview has identified 53 data center projects totaling 84 gigawatts (!) where developers plan to deploy onsite gas-fired power.
• Developers are often turning to infrastructure with shorter wait times than traditional plants, like mobile generators and turbines designed for planes.

Yes, but: Permitting delays are slowing down the efforts, per the firm's updated tracking out this week.

What's next: "[C]umulative behind-the-meter capacity could be as low as 5 GW by the end of 2027 — compared to 13 GW if all projects with signed tenants meet their timelines," it finds.

Updated analysis

This Ashburn, Virginia, Neighborhood Wants to Sell Their Homes to Data Centers (Business Insider)

Amy says: The selling price would be $4.4 million per acre, four to five times the value of each home. Wow. I just did a tour of a data center under construction in this area, so it's particularly fascinating having just seen what it's like there.

A US oil export ban could raise pump prices (Atlantic Council)

Ben says: As inventories drain, I recommend bookmarking this lucid look at how U.S. fuel markets work. Trump officials have denied an export ban is on the table, but multiple analysts say it could resurface as the Iran crisis drags on.

Why Wildfire Experts Are So Worried About This Year's Fire Season (Inside Climate News)

Amy says: As a dweller of a Western state prone to wildfires and their smoke, this story worries me. A warming planet combined with federal cutbacks is a dangerous combination.

Fusion investment rolls on. The startup Helion just raised $465 million in Series G funding, led by Thrive Capital. Go deeper