A fully closed Strait of Hormuz was long seen as unthinkable — and unmanageable if it happened — based on past modeling and interviews with energy experts.

Why it matters: That conventional wisdom underscores just how unprecedented today's closure is — and how little playbook exists for what could come next.

The intrigue: In at least two major exercises assessing potential oil disruptions — one in 2007 and another in 2022 — energy experts considered a full shutdown of the strait but ultimately didn't model it in their planning.

• In both cases, they judged it either too unlikely or too large in scale to meaningfully plan around.
• "The idea was laughed out of the room," said Sam Ori, who worked on the 2007 exercise at the nonprofit SAFE. "The view was that it just wasn't credible and would be seen as alarmist."

The big picture: The Strait of Hormuz is the single most important chokepoint in the global energy system.

Flashback: In 2007, a group of experts considered modeling a full closure — then rejected it.

• "The discussion was, 'come on guys, it has to be credible. That could never happen,'" Ori said on stage at a recent conference hosted by SAFE.
• Modeling it meant confronting an "economic apocalyptic scenario," said Ori, who is now executive director at the University of Chicago's Institute for Climate and Sustainable Growth.

State of play: That 2007 scenario took a year — and a less extreme disruption — to push oil to $165 a barrel.

Flashback (again): A 2022 task force led by representatives of countries that are part of the International Energy Agency also sidestepped a full Hormuz closure.

• The task force, convened to assess the best allocation of strategic oil reserves in the event of a crisis, didn't consider it for two reasons, said Landon Derentz, a member of the task force at the time while at the Energy Department.
• One, it had never happened before.
• And two, it was seen as requiring a global response beyond what the IEA could realistically coordinate, said Derentz, now at the Atlantic Council.

The other side: An IEA spokesperson said the agency has long considered the risks associated with a closed Strait of Hormuz in its emergency planning, including in 2019.

• Derentz said the 2022 task force was a separate exercise and focused specifically on the ability of countries to respond to an oil crisis with their existing reserves.

The bottom line: The current disruption is testing not just global energy markets, but the assumptions behind how extreme risks are modeled — and who is responsible for planning for them.

Disclosure: Amy is the inaugural journalism fellow at the University of Chicago's Institute for Climate and Sustainable Growth.

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📈Oil prices jumped again today despite President Trump's pledge that the U.S. Navy will help coordinate transit of ships from foreign countries through the Strait of Hormuz.

• The latest: Brent crude is up over 2% to $110 this morning, though a U.S. official is denying the market-spiking Iranian state media report that Iran struck a U.S. warship.
• What they're saying: "The US can declare any number of safe zones in the Strait of Hormuz, any number of times, and exhort countries and ships to pass. Without Iran's agreement, no vessel will have the confidence to try going through!," Vandana Hari, founder of energy market analysis firm Vanda Insights, posted on X.

⛽ The average U.S. gasoline price hit another wartime high of $4.46 per gallon today, per AAA.

😬 Exxon CEO Darren Woods offered a cogent timeline-slash-warning about what's next for oil markets and it's... daunting stuff.

• The big picture: "Once the Strait opens up, it'll take one to two months for the flow to reestablish itself," he told CNBC Friday. And then it's weeks of transit time to move barrels to demand destinations, he said.
• Threat level: The full impact of the closure hasn't even become apparent yet, he said, because countries have been tapping strategic reserves and commercial stockpiles. Once the stockpiles run down, "we'll see an increasing impact on price."

👀 Speaking of daunting, Barclays now sees Brent crude averaging $100 per barrel in 2026, up from $85 in its prior estimates, with "risks skewed higher depending on how much longer it takes to resolve the impasse," Barclays' Amarpreet Singh said in a note

☀️ Via the FT, "Investors are piling into clean power funds at the fastest pace in five years as the Iran war accelerates a global push for energy security and alternatives to oil and gas."

• The latest: Over $3 billion flowed into exchange-traded funds linked to renewables in April, the FT reports based on Morningstar data, the biggest inflow since January 2021.

Flight and hotel bookings are already dipping as the Iran war sends gasoline and jet fuel prices sharply upward, industry experts warn.

Why it matters: Rising oil prices and dwindling supplies are hitting travel as drivers face higher gas prices and airlines in the U.S. and elsewhere cut flights and raise ticket costs and baggage fees.

• While airfares have risen 20% from 2025, airlines remain confident that passengers will pay higher ticket prices. Customers have been willing to shell out for legroom, better seats and other extras.

Threat level: Virginia Tech hospitality and tourism professor Mahmood Khan warns "the trickiest" period is still to come — the summer, when the U.S. is due to co-host the World Cup.

• Hotels in host cities this month cut prices due to weaker demand.
• Higher prices will prompt people to think about cutting down on travel, and vacationers may "prefer domestic travel rather than going far away from home," Kahn says.

State of play: The average international airfare soared from $776 days before the war began to $1,064 by mid-April, while the average domestic ticket jumped from $335 to $358, per an analysis from travel search engine Kayak.

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The Mideast crisis makes the case for investment in cutting releases of methane — the planet-warming main component of natural gas — from energy infrastructure, the IEA said today.

Why it matters: The Strait of Hormuz blockage means the energy security and climate benefits of avoiding waste are dovetailing.

• "As countries seek alternative sources of gas to replace lost volumes, it is worth noting that large quantities of produced gas are not being put to productive use, owing to methane leaks, and flaring and venting from oil and gas operations," a new report states.
• Better efforts could bring "significant additional volumes to market," IEA's annual methane tracker states.

State of play: Roughly 110 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas passed through the strait last year.

• If countries that still have export capacity stepped up their emissions game across the oil and gas value chain — wells, processing, pipelines, LNG sites, etc. — IEA sees 15 bcm becoming available soon enough to provide some market relief.

Zoom out: Much longer term, nearly 100 bcm of supply from cutting methane at oil and gas operations, and another 100 bcm through prevention of flaring — that is, when excess gas is intentionally burned off — could be freed up.

Threat level: The oil, gas and coal industries together account for about a third of human-caused methane emissions.

• Aggressive pledges from nations and companies have yet to address the overall problem, even though there are successful initiatives.

The bottom line: There's "no sign that global energy-related methane emissions fell in 2025 despite progress in some areas."

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"For the largest oil supply shock ever to occur in 2026, when renewable energy and electrified transportation are widely available, is a quirk of history that few could have predicted."

That's from her note on how the Iran war will create some permanent oil demand destruction.

• "[T]his will be further supported by government policies that prioritise energy independence and stability of energy supply over reliance on traditional fossil fuels in its aftermath."