Axios Future of Energy

August 27, 2026
⚠️ We're opening with a look at wildfire threats in a hotter world, then moving on to...
- The stakes of Trump's grid restrictions
- New U.S. nuclear support, AI's oil boost and more, all in 1,361 words, 5 minutes
💵 New in geothermal: Quaise Energy, a startup tapping superhot resources deep underground, closed an expanded Series B round at $180 million, including $35 million from Nabors Industries.
🎧 This week marks 25 years since Mary J. Blige released the album "No More Drama," which has today's all-timer of an intro tune...
1 big thing: How to prepare for wildfires — now and for the future
Wildfires demand action on radically different timelines: during the crisis, before the next fire season and over the coming decades.
Why it matters: Climate change is worsening the underlying risk, making everything from evacuation plans to forest management and cutting emissions part of the response.
Driving the news: America's northwestern corner is having a record-breaking wildfire year, and the traditional fire season still has months to go.
"Even if not a single other acre or structure burned, we already have the most active fire season in recorded history for the Pacific Northwest," said climate scientist Daniel Swain in an Aug. 18 virtual presentation.
- "Washington and Oregon together [are] already breaking their historical record for the most area burned in any full wildfire season."
My thought bubble: My family lives in Spokane, Washington. They don't live in the neighborhoods where hundreds of homes burned Aug. 1, but the disaster was a wake-up call because they also live near forested land.
- In the immediate aftermath, we feverishly discussed making an evacuation plan. We haven't followed through. Our conversations have shifted back to normal life.
"If we perceive that we can't manage a chronic risk, we will tend to manage our fear about that risk," said Claire Rapp, a Colorado State University scientist specializing in behavioral science and wildfires.
The big picture: The challenge is that wildfire preparedness operates on different timelines, with different actions needed at every stage.
- During an active fire: Evacuating people, fighting fires and protecting communities from smoke.
- Before the next fire season: Making homes less vulnerable, reducing nearby fuels and improving community preparedness and evacuation plans.
- Over the coming decades: Managing forests and mitigating climate change through government action at the local, national and even global levels.
Zoom in: Rapp recommends writing down what you'll need to do during an evacuation before that chaotic moment arrives, including preparing a go-bag and figuring out how you'll quickly gather medications and pets.
- Think of it as a psychological hedge against panic.
- "To the extent that 'calm, deliberate, rational you' can prepare 'panicked you' for evacuation, you will be more effective," Rapp said.
State of play: The government's role becomes more important the longer the planning horizon.
- This year's severe fire season, concentrated in the Pacific Northwest, could add urgency to federal legislation aimed at lessening the severity of wildfires in the future.
What we're watching: The bipartisan Fix Our Forests Act, which passed the House last year, would seek to reduce wildfire risk by speeding up forest management, including thinning and prescribed burns, while boosting community preparedness and coordination among governments.
- "This is the first time we've had a really bad fire season where there's actually something big and meaningful that is substantially through the [congressional] process," said Matt Weiner, CEO of Megafire Action, a nonprofit focused on reducing catastrophic wildfire risk.
2. 📦 Unpacking Trump's grid move, and more policy notes
⛔ Let's gauge early fallout from President Trump's executive order barring new additions of certain power equipment — some transformers, inverters, and batteries and more — to U.S. grids.
- Why it matters: The order yesterday cites national security risks like cyberattacks, and is widely viewed as targeting Chinese equipment.
- Winners and losers: "The order could push even more grid spending toward domestic suppliers just as the U.S. needs to build out capacity," Shay Boloor, a strategist with Futurum Equities, said via X.
- The intrigue: The move quickly boosted the share prices of South Korean power equipment makers, Seoul Economic Daily reports. Shares of SolarEdge, which makes power inverters in the U.S., got a big boost, too.
- What we're watching: "The equipment ban collides with existing strains in the supply of critical electric system components and could exacerbate already long waits for some gear," Bloomberg reports.
🏭 The White House is reviewing a proposed EPA rule to repeal carbon emissions rules for power plants, a filing shows.
- Why it matters: The plan seeks to "permanently end EPA's regulation" of power sector CO2, and is "expected to mirror" the agency's repeal of the endangerment finding, per E&E News.
🛢️ The Interior Department plans to slash environmental study requirements for some oil exploration in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, per Reuters and High Country News.
3. 🌱 Trump's expanding nuclear power push
Trump officials moved on two fronts yesterday to lay the groundwork for use of advanced nuclear reactors on land and at sea.
Why it matters: The effort spans multiple agencies, and nuclear tech has considerable bipartisan support, which could translate into durable policy.
Driving the news: The Army unveiled $2.2 billion for companies to develop "microreactors" at military installations in North Carolina, Texas, Kentucky, and Georgia.
- It's the Pentagon's most direct effort yet to harness advanced nuclear energy.
- Micro-reactors generate up to 20 megawatts of power, and can be deployed in bunches.
The big picture: The military's sky-high energy demand — for reusable batteries, computer farms, radars, housing, weapons and more — is an ideal pressure test for nuclear.
- "We need to be able to sustain our most critical operations without the grid, without a civilian supply chain, and nuclear power is actually the best thing we have, in terms of capacity factor, to go do that," Jordan Bramble, CEO of Antares, one of the companies, told Axios.
- Combined with private funding, the Army hopes for deployment of over 20 microreactors across Pentagon installations.
State of play: Other companies tapped yesterday are Radiant, which won a $750 million contract, as well as BWXT, General Atomics and Westinghouse.
Catch up quick: Separately, the Energy Department hosted yesterday's launch of the Atomic Technologies Licensed for Applications at Sea (ATLAS) initiative.
- It's an effort through the International Atomic Energy Agency to spur nuclear-powered commercial shipping and floating plants that can serve remote and coastal communities and industries.
- The Washington Examiner has more.
The bottom line: Energy Secretary Chris Wright, at the launch, called it an effort to "marry up two critical things for the global future" — global trade and nuclear power.
4. 🛢️ Petro-notes: AI gains and prepping for a long grind over Iran
💵 New McKinsey & Co. analysis concludes the upstream oil and gas industry (including oilfield service companies) could eventually unlock $230 billion annually in value through better use of AI.
- Why it matters: While cleantech uses like better battery chemistries get lots of attention, it's a reminder that emerging tech also provides big benefits to incumbent industries.
- State of play: The potential benefits are heavily concentrated in development and production. AI helps with things like planning and equipment selection for drilling wells, and optimizing use of pumps and chemicals in production. Full analysis
📊 With the Iran conflict looking like a long grind, it's looking more likely that high prices and supply constraints will bring lasting changes to oil use, writes Sverre Alvik, a top analyst with consulting and risk management firm DNV.
- Why it matters: "For every month the conflict lasts, the probability of permanent demand destruction increases," he writes in a post that previews the firm's detailed annual energy transition outlook coming in October.
5. 🧮 Number of the day: 0.2% higher
That's the global rise in greenhouse gas emissions in the first half of 2026 compared to the same stretch last year, per Climate TRACE data out this morning.
Why it matters: The research group finds a slight decline in aggregate emissions from power generation.
- This indicates there was "not a major short-term shift to coal-fired power" despite the Iran war cutting off gas supplies.
Quick take: That's an interesting piece of narrative-busting — if borne out.
- But there's conflicting info on exactly how much some countries boosted coal during the crisis, and it will take time for the full picture to emerge, so stay tuned.
🙏 Thanks to Mackenzie Weinger, David Nather and Chris Speckhard for editing and to our brilliant Axios visuals team.
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