Oil price changes in response to President Trump's social media posts about the Iran war have been shrinking over time, an Axios analysis shows.

Why it matters: Oil price changes ripple throughout the U.S. and global economies, and the conflict has brought unprecedented supply disruption.

• Traders weigh whether his comments suggest U.S. moves that would help or hinder oil transit, as well as the potential for attacks on energy sites.

The big picture: In the early weeks, there was an "information vacuum" and high uncertainty about U.S. policy and objectives, said oil analyst Ben Cahill.

• Markets "overreacted" to a lot of posts in response.

"For months now, the market has been tuning out social media posts because they just don't reflect the reality on the ground," said Cahill, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council.

• Many of Trump's proclamations about the status of the Strait of Hormuz, his policies, and the war's aims have had "zero correlation" to how many barrels are leaving the waterway, he said.

How it works: Axios tracked 269 posts on Truth Social between Feb. 28 and Aug. 19 that mentioned Iran or the Strait of Hormuz.

• During that period, the average five-minute change in the futures price — that is, comparing adjacent, non-overlapping five-minute blocs — was 0.2%.
• But in the five minutes after these Truth Social posts appeared, or in the five minutes after the next market open, the average change was almost four times higher, averaging 0.73%.

Yes, but: The effect is diminishing, as you can see above.

Catch up quick: The Iran war shows how Trump's posts have the power to quickly move markets.

• Truth Social has begun charging Wall Street up to $1.2 million a year for a split-second edge on posts, but the offering is facing litigation.

What we're watching: Trump's waning power to "jawbone" oil markets has political consequences, as Democrats use energy prices as a cudgel against Republicans in the midterm elections.

• "In the first couple months, I think the White House was quite successful in controlling the narrative and talking down the oil prices," Cahill said. "But it has lost its effect."

👀 China is weighing a bid to host the 2028 UN climate summit, Bloomberg reports.

• Why it matters: The nation occupies a unique role — it's by far the world's largest emitter and coal user, but also tops in electric cars. It also uses and exports huge volumes of renewables equipment.
• State of play: The potential bid "would signal the country's intent to show greater global leadership on the issue," Bloomberg reports.

⛽ EPA is waiving certain environmental requirements on summer blends of gasoline as it seeks ways to temper prices. Announcement ... Reuters coverage.

🎙️ New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is positioning herself as a leader of the Democratic search for a data center position that isn't explicitly anti-business, Axios' Maria Curi reports from her interview with the state leader.

⏸️ Mike Rogers, the GOP nominee in Michigan's Senate race, is calling for a one-year pause on new data centers, per The Detroit News and other outlets.

• Why it matters: It's a key race in the battle for Senate control and shows the fast-rising prominence of data centers in national politics.

👍 DOE's Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy — which helps entrepreneurs develop cutting-edge tech — plays a "critical role" in innovation that draws private investment, a new report finds.

• Why it matters: The National Academies study arrives as the Trump administration is proposing to sharply cut funding for the DOE branch launched nearly two decades ago.
• Catch up quick: DOE's budget pitch to Congress says it would shrink funding to a "fiscally responsible level."

Will AI derail global climate goals? (MIT's Sloan School of Management)

Ben says: This brief analysis and related book chapter offer a pessimistic look at AI's future climate impact — but argue there is time to course correct.

• One takeaway: Emissions from AI-driven economic growth are a way bigger deal than CO2 from the energy that's powering AI.

What Wildfire Smoke Reveals About How We Respond to Climate Risk (Time)

Amy says: I love how this article blends personal lived experience with empirical research and seeks to find answers that address both the psychological side and policy/logistical side of life.

Aptera Motors' stock jumped almost 12% yesterday after the solar-powered vehicle company unveiled a partnership with Launch Design, a Shanghai design and contract manufacturing firm.

• It includes a Launch Design investment in California-based Aptera.

Why it matters: The deal is a ray of light in the fraught journey to making solar electric travel reality, a path that has already included multiple failures.

What's next: The agreement spans partial assembly by Launch Design, vehicle testing, pilot production and more.

• Aptera hopes to produce an initial 40 vehicles starting late this year that are partially assembled by Launch and completed in California.

"I'm not saying that renaming data centers would prevent this level of backlash, but I don't think naming projects Colossus, Ludicrous, and Prometheus is exactly helping tech companies win over support."