Global oil and gas demand is projected to keep rising through 2050 under nations' current policies despite growth in renewables and electric cars, the International Energy Agency said.

Why it matters: IEA's latest World Energy Outlook — released overnight — could influence policymakers, C-suites, investors, academics and anyone else trying to understand where the energy mix might head.

The big picture: "There is less momentum than before behind national and international efforts to reduce emissions, yet climate risks are rising," it states.

A few takeaways...

🪖 Energy security and affordability concerns have risen on nations' priority lists in these "volatile" times — a mixed bag for low-carbon sources.

• "Some, including many fuel-importing countries, lean towards renewables and efficiency as solutions. Others focus more on ensuring ample supplies of traditional fuels," it states.

🇺🇸 Big changes are "re-shaping the energy landscape" in the U.S., notably huge policy shifts under the GOP.

• IEA sees U.S. oil output rising slowly to 2035 under existing policies, and continued gas production increases, though coal output keeps falling.

🆕 It models a global "current policies scenario" (CPS) for the first time since 2019.

• This marks a return to studying a more pessimistic projection of energy transition.
• It sees long-term global oil and gas demand growth, though coal use would start dropping this decade.

👀 There are lots of eyes on this one. Trump officials and some analysts say what had been the most cautious model — the "stated policies scenario" (STEPS) — was unrealistic about the movement away from fossil fuels.

• This year's STEPS run, by the way, no longer sees gas demand growth ending this decade, contra last year's.
• Instead, it projects a plateau in the mid-late 2030s, then gentle decline to 2050.
• STEPS — which explores existing and planned policies — still sees oil demand growth ending this decade, though at slightly higher levels than its previous report.

⚡ Electricity demand grows "much faster" than overall energy use in all scenarios.

• Global power thirst soars by around 40% by 2035 in those "current" and "stated" cases, and over 50% by then under a hypothetical roadmap to net-zero emissions in 2050.
• "The pace varies, but renewables grow faster than any other major energy source in all scenarios, led by solar photovoltaics," IEA states. But IEA slightly trimmed its renewables growth outlook, citing U.S. policy changes.

🌎 Big emissions cuts are nowhere in sight, and global temps soar far past Paris goals.

• Under current policies, global CO2 emissions are basically the same in 2050 as today, and fall just 22% by 2050 in the "stated" case.

🖥️ That data center thing is really a thing. Wild stat: Investment in data centers will reach $580 billion this year, surpassing the roughly $540B invested in new oil supply, IEA estimates.

• "This point of comparison provides a telling marker of the changing nature of modern, highly digitalised economies," it states.

🧘 But keep some perspective. Data centers are just one piece of the power story and are highly concentrated in advanced economies and China.

• Data centers account for under 10% of global electricity demand growth between 2024 and 2030, behind industry, appliances, and more.

This chart shows that "current policies scenario" that IEA revived for the first time since 2019.

Yes, but: The report notes this scenario "builds on a narrow reading of today's policies, taking only those that are adopted in legislation and regulation."

• And it's a "cautious perspective" on tech deployment, it adds.

🛢️ What they're saying: OPEC, which has long argued there's no oil or gas demand peak in sight, claimed validation this morning (even though the "current policies" case is just one scenario).

🔍 What we're watching: Whether the new outlook dulls U.S. criticism of IEA and threats to withdraw from the body.

• But on the flip side, the climate think tank Ember says IEA risks underestimating clean tech growth.
• "Even the scenario based on stated policies (STEPS) should be taken as a floor [and] not a ceiling, given it doesn't factor in exponential change in technology adoption or other announced policy commitments," the group said.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom's (D) high-profile stops at COP30 offer an early look at how he'll frame climate in his potential 2028 White House run.

Why it matters: The next presidential race will offer a stark contrast on the topic — especially if a Trump-y GOP candidate is the party's standard-bearer.

🎙️ Driving the news: Newsom said Trump "abandoned any sense of duty" on climate, but also made economics the tip of his spear.

• "This is not about electric power," Newsom said vis-à-vis China. "This is about economic power."
• And via the NYT, he urged a pocketbook message. "It's about affordability. It's about time we frame it accordingly," he said.

⚔️ Friction point: "Governor Newscum flew all the way to Brazil to tout the Green New Scam, while Californians are paying some of the highest energy prices in the country. Embarrassing!" said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers in an emailed statement.

Go deeper: Newsom at UN climate summit says Trump is "doubling down on stupid"

🖥️ Chevron's first project to build gas-fired power plants co-located with data centers will be in West Texas and have 2.5 gigawatts of generation, it said this morning.

• What's next: "We're in exclusive advanced customer negotiations and are targeting first power in 2027," an investor deck states, adding that Chevron expects "mid-teen returns." Full investor deck ... WSJ coverage.

🤝 Speaking of energy giants and data centers, Google has a new 15-year power purchase deal for output from TotalEnergies' Montpelier solar project nearing completion in Ohio, the companies said.

• Why it matters: It's the latest step in TotalEnergies' strategy to provide "tailored energy solutions for data centers," the announcement states. Go deeper.

👷 Glenfarne, developer of a planned Alaska gas pipeline and LNG project, has tapped Baker Hughes to supply key equipment and power generation. Baker Hughes also "committed to a strategic investment" in the project.

• The big picture: The agreement fills in more blanks on the long-planned project, but its viability remains a question mark amid competing Gulf Coast supplies and other hurdles.

⚖️ New litigation alleges DOE's cancellation of $7.5 billion of clean energy project grants in largely blue states runs afoul of constitutional equal protection and free speech rights.

• Why it matters: Those cancellations could presage wider efforts to pare back Biden-era DOE project awards. DOE and the White House budget office did not respond yesterday to a request for comment.
• Go deeper: Read the complaint from clean energy advocates, local officials and environmentalists.

🛢️ The Interior Department could soon reveal plans to sell oil drilling leases off California's coast later this decade, per the Washington Post and other outlets.

⛏️ Interior is also taking new procedural steps toward auctioning offshore mineral exploration rights in waters off American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands.

🙅 A who's who of K Street heavyweights, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, is urging EPA to back off plans to end corporate greenhouse gas reporting.

• Why it matters: While big industry groups generally favor less regulation, they're really worried about unintended consequences.
• Threat level: They fear a costly patchwork of state rules, and that the absence of uniform data will mess up access to foreign markets with climate import standards.
• State of play: The joint comments to EPA are from groups repping airlines, oil and pipeline groups, gas exporters, utilities, chemical producers and beyond. The National Association of Manufacturers and Business Roundtable are criticizing EPA's plan on similar grounds.

💨 The U.S. offshore wind pipeline has been cut in half due to Trump administration opposition and other factors, the Energy Industries Council said in a new report.

That's how long China's CO2 emissions have been flat or falling, per new analysis from Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

Why it matters: China's emissions are the world's largest by a mile.

• The trend could signal China is capable of over-delivering on its 2035 climate pledge — maybe by a lot.