President Trump's endorsement of suspending federal gas taxes pushes the idea higher on the political radar, but it still faces long odds.

Why it matters: Some Republicans rushed to introduce bills, and a few Democrats have already endorsed the idea — but there are still serious obstacles that could keep Trump's comments from becoming reality.

• The federal tax is 18.3 cents for gasoline and 24.3 cents for diesel (with another .1 cent fee for addressing leaking underground tanks).

A few dynamics to watch following Trump's comments to CBS News...

📜 Capitol Hill. Trump needs Congress to act, and the immediate signs are mixed. GOP lawmakers including Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) quickly promised legislation, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune was noncommittal.

• "I've not in the past obviously been a fan of that idea. But you know I've got some colleagues out there who think it's a good idea and so we'll hear them out," he told reporters.
• Thune noted the revenue loss could hurt the Highway Trust Fund, and said "the best thing [that] can happen for gas prices is for the [Strait of Hormuz] to get opened up again."

💪 The White House political operation. It's hard to know whether it's something Trump's team will truly push, or instead one of his frequent musings, or something in between.

🗳️ It's a 2028 thing. Several potential White House hopefuls have now pushed to temporarily nix the tax.

• They would be Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Hawley, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.

🤷 The politics and plans remain in flux. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) isn't exactly shooting down the idea, but in a floor speech yesterday, he took the position that it's not enough.

• "[L]et's not pretend 18-cents of gas tax relief per gallon makes up for the damage Trump created with this war," Schumer said. "Eighteen cents isn't a dollar-fifty — which is how much the price of gas has gone up since the war started."
• "The best way to lower costs is to end this illegal war."
• Aides to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) didn't respond to requests for comment.

💵 The numbers are daunting. One reason a waiver has never happened — despite surfacing often when prices spike — is the budget impact is big even while consumer relief is modest.

• The revenue effect and loss to the Highway Trust Fund — which supports roads, bridges and transit — depends on the duration and how it's structured.
• For instance, Kelly's plan would divert other monies to the fund. But a holiday of any length is expensive for Uncle Sam.
• The research firm ClearView Energy Partners said a hypothetical gas tax waiver from May 15 to Nov. 30 would cost nearly $14 billion. Add in other fuels, and the price climbs a lot more.

The bottom line: The high costs and revenue loss for highways "might ordinarily produce lethal sticker shock on Capitol Hill," ClearView said in a client note.

• "But in a mid-term election year where both parties are in no-holds barred pursuit of Congressional control, we cannot wholly rule it out."

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 10 weeks now — a once unthinkable shock to the world economy — yet global oil prices aren't nearly as high as many people had expected.

Why it matters: The relatively restrained price movement helps explain why the global economy is holding up so far.

How it works: The U.S. and China are playing a huge role in keeping costs down, says an intriguing note out yesterday from Morgan Stanley commodities strategists in London.

• Since the start of the war, the world is nearing a loss of 1 billion barrels of oil from the Middle East, per the analysis.
• They estimate a decline of 12.3 million barrels per day from seven countries.

By the numbers: "That this is the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the oil market is neither an exaggeration nor controversial," they write.

• Yes, a barrel of Brent crude is up more than 40%, sitting just above $100.
• But it's far off the high of just under $140 seen in 2022, when prices rose amid fears that a far smaller amount of oil out of Russia would be drained from the market.
• Oil traded around $100 from 2011-2014 — adjusted for inflation, that makes today's prices positively cheap.

The intrigue: Then there is the role played by the world's two biggest economies.

• The U.S. has sharply increased its oil exports — by about 3.8 million barrels of crude and other petroleum products a day.
• China has cut its imports by about 5.5 million barrels a day.

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Check out the wartime spike above.

👷 EPA unveiled two policies aimed at speeding development of data centers, power plants and other infrastructure.

• State of play: A proposed rule would allow construction to begin on "non-emitting components or structures" before getting air permits under "new source review" requirements. Separate guidance allows review of another kind of air permit request concurrently with a public comment process.
• The big picture: The proposed rule would "provide solutions to issues that have held up critical American infrastructure and advance the next great technological forefront," EPA head Lee Zeldin said in a statement.
• The other side: The Sierra Club said the rule shows "Donald Trump, Big Tech, and Big Fossil Fuel holding hands and recklessly bulldozing through processes that exist to keep our families and our communities healthy and safe."

⛏️ The Interior Department rescinded a Biden-era rule that aimed to put conservation of public lands on equal footing with other uses like mining and oil and gas extraction.

• Friction point: The new rule "restores balance to federal land management," it states. But an array of green groups slammed the decision.

☀️ The Solar Energy Industries Association — a major solar and storage trade group — tapped former Minnesota GOP governor Tim Pawlenty as its new president and CEO.

• What we're watching: Keep an eye on whether he can boost solar support among the GOP.

"What matters now is the 'call on demand curtailment' — the volume of consumption that must disappear given fixed supply constraints and limited inventory draw capacity."

Its latest note concludes fuel demand must contract soon due to supply gaps.

• The lag time between opening the Strait of Hormuz and resupplying refined product markets means a Rubicon has been crossed.
• Asia and Europe are most exposed, but the "burden of demand losses" will spread the longer the crisis lasts.

That's EVs' and plug-in hybrids' share of Chinese car exports last month, per WSJ reporting based on China Passenger Car Association data.

Why it matters: It's the first time those exports outpaced shipments of gasoline or diesel-powered models.

• There's aggressive overseas expansion amid "subdued demand in the domestic market," it reports.