If 2024 marked the pre-dawn of the AI boom and 2025 the sunrise, we are now fully in daylight.

Why it matters: This AI daylight will ripple through our midterm elections, your power bills and the future of all kinds of energy.

🔌 The "affordability" elections

Forget pump prices. The term du jour is "plug prices."

• The midterms could be the first in recent decades to render electricity prices a political liability through the broader "affordability" lens.
• Reasons for rising prices vary by region, but AI-driven data center growth is a factor in some areas.

🌇 AI, full daylight

"We're going to see a lot of stuff get turned on in the next six to 12 months," said Brian Janous, co-founder of data center project developer Cloverleaf Infrastructure and former vice president of energy at Microsoft.

• Janous argues that physical limits on energy infrastructure could keep a full-blown AI bubble from bursting.

What we're watching: Janous also predicts a lot of mergers and acquisitions this year across the energy and AI sectors.

🛢️ Abundance deepens for oil and gas

Trump's capture of Venezuela's leader is scrambling the debate around oil and geopolitics.

• But the longer-term takeaway simply bolsters a trend already underway: The world has a lot of oil, which is good for prices at the pump but less so for producers.

↩️ Finding the "climate reset" button

Last year "broke the traditional climate agenda," as TIME put it. This year is about assembling something new — likely intertwined with the affordability debate.

What they're saying: People are going to support action on climate when they determine it will be "way cheaper," said Aliya Haq, president of a new group called CleanEcon, on a recent podcast.

Zoom out: We'll get a better understanding about China's ambitions to accelerate its clean energy and climate agenda in March when government leaders meet to discuss the nation's next five-year plan.

💨 Choose your own adventure, clean energy edition

Clean energy is far from monolithic, and 2026 will expose widening divergences.

• U.S. offshore wind's misadventures are likely to persist following Trump's 11th-hour 2025 move to pause leases.

Solar is also bracing for a slower year — potentially its weakest growth since the 2000s, according to Carlos Torres Diaz, Rystad's head of power.

• A shift in how China prices new projects, alongside U.S. headwinds, will be key drivers.

More nascent technologies are eyeing breakout moments, including geothermal and fission. Geothermal startup Fervo is expected to pursue an IPO, a rare move in today's climate tech market.

🌎 Trading climate tensions

The European Union's long-anticipated carbon border tax took effect Jan. 1, putting trade at the center of global climate action.

What's next: What did we miss? Tell me at [email protected].

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Nobody knows exactly how much it will cost to rebuild Venezuela's broken-down oilfields, but everyone agrees it's a lot — and there's no guarantee that U.S. companies will be chomping at the bit.

Why it matters: "There is no quick and easy solution to the problems that accumulated over a quarter century," Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov said in a note.

The big picture: Venezuela's crude output has dwindled to well under one million barrels per day after years of underinvestment, mismanagement, and sanctions — a far cry from around 3.5 mbd in the late 1990s.

State of play: Don't expect a huge boost unless and until there's a secure operating environment, clear fiscal regime, an easing of sanctions and more.

• Some production could be revived relatively quickly by growing output from existing and still-operating wells, analysts say.

What they're saying: "I think that the low-hanging fruit could probably bring another half million barrels per day to the market from Venezuela," Center for Strategic & International Studies oil scholar Clayton Seigle said at a briefing yesterday.

• He sees a one- to two-year time frame and steps like replacing well casings, subsurface stimulation to free up trapped oil and gas, mechanical pressure increases, and more.

Yes, but: Getting output back to former highs is a vastly heavier and time-consuming lift, Seigle and others note.

By the numbers: Researchers with Columbia University's energy think tank estimate that reaching around 2.5 mbd would take $80 billion to $90 billion of investment in oil infrastructure over six or seven years.

• A new Rystad Energy analysis estimates an all-in cost of $183 billion needed to get north of 3 mbd over 15 years, split between state-owned PDVSA, national spending and private operators.

Full story

💵 President Trump tells NBC News that the U.S. could subsidize his hoped-for work by domestic oil companies' work to rebuild Venezuela's oil sector.

• State of play: "A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent, and the oil companies will spend it, and then they'll get reimbursed by us, or through revenue," he said.
• Reality check: As we've been writing, U.S. companies' appetite for Venezuelan projects is unclear. But the White House is expressing confidence.
• The big picture: "All of our oil companies are ready and willing to make big investments in Venezuela that will rebuild their oil infrastructure, which was destroyed by the illegitimate Maduro regime," White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in a statement.
• What we're watching: Energy Secretary Chris Wright will meet with U.S. oil execs this week, Bloomberg reports.

📈 Chevron, the sole U.S. oil company still in Venezuela, saw a 5% share price bump yesterday, while major oilfield contractors' stock prices jumped too. Exxon and ConocoPhillips, which previously produced there, saw smaller gains.

• Why it matters: It was the first trading since the U.S. capture of President Nicolás Maduro and Trump saying he wants to boost U.S. industry's role there.
• The bottom line: The rise suggests investors see opportunities despite the hurdles and question marks we've been writing about.

🇨🇳 U.S. moves to control Venezuela's oil flows could bring retaliation from China, including new rare earth export controls. Go deeper

Congress is pushing ahead in bipartisan fashion to fund the departments of Interior and Energy, as well as the EPA, and reject many of President Trump's proposed cuts.

Why it matters: The appropriations committees' "minibus" package released yesterday reflects lawmakers' desire to reassert their authority in the face of Trump officials' calls to shrink or cancel many programs.

• But they must do so quickly — funding at many agencies lapses after Jan. 30.

Driving the news: In addition to EPA, Interior and DOE, the package would fund the departments of Commerce and Justice as well as science agencies.

• It would provide $8.82 billion for EPA — $1.8 billion above House Republicans' bill and $4.7 billion above Trump's request.
• It would preserve the Energy Star labeling program that Trump sought to cancel, according to a Senate Appropriations summary.

Zoom in: For DOE, the bill would provide $16.78 billion for non-defense programs — $3.76 billion above Trump's request and $1.3 billion above the level in House Republicans' draft bill.

• That amount includes $3.1 billion for energy efficiency and renewable energy programs, rejecting Trump's proposed cut of over $2.5 billion to those initiatives and keeping intact research programs into solar, wind, and hydrogen.

The bill calls for $6.171 billion for NOAA, $1.67 billion above Trump's request.

What's next: The House Rules Committee is scheduled to meet today to set terms for floor debate this week.

💵 The Energy Department said it's providing three companies $2.7 billion in tranches over 10 years to boost domestic uranium enrichment.

• Why it matters: The plan sits at the intersection of two big stories — efforts to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers for the nation's fleet, and plans for new reactors as power demand grows.
• State of play: The awardees are American Centrifuge Operating, General Matter, and Orano Federal Services. The money will be allotted "under a strict milestone approach," DOE said.

📝 Nuclear developer Holtec International filed applications with federal regulators to build two small modular reactors at the Palisades site in Michigan, where it's also restarting a large shuttered plant.

• Why it matters: "The approval process will be a test of the Trump administration's reforms to the nation's nuclear regulator," writes energy journalist Alexander C. Kaufman, who broke the news.

Uber is using the giant CES electronics show in Las Vegas to debut the robotaxi it's developing with two partners — EV maker Lucid Motors and self-driving tech firm Nuro.

Why it matters: It's drawing closer to reality it seems, with launch in the San Francisco area targeted for later in 2026. Go deeper

That's how much electricity giant Vistra is paying for 10 gas-fired power plants owned by Cogentrix Energy, representing nearly all of Cogentrix's fleet.

Why it matters: Power deals are hot amid rising demand from data centers and other needs. The plants are in Texas, New England, and the PJM region. Reuters has more.