Rising energy costs are "likely to be a decisive factor in the 2026 elections," per a new League of Conservation Voters Victory Fund memo shared first with Axios.

Why it matters: LCV has the environmental movement's most expansive electoral operation.

• The memo from its super PAC describes a strategy to mobilize specific pockets of voters in House, Senate and governor's races.

The big picture: The memo identifies a target group it dubs "energy bill voters" — people whose households or businesses are struggling with higher power and gasoline prices.

• "Energy Bill Voters are more likely to be Women, Black and/or Latino, non-college-educated, less engaged with politics, independent, moderate, or soft partisan voters," states the memo by Sara Schreiber, the fund's senior VP of campaigns.
• The group and its affiliates plan media campaigns and field operations in many of the most critical races to mobilize what it calls the "next crucial voting bloc."

State of play: "A key part of the electorate is really affected by this affordability crisis, and they are interested in candidates who have a plan and are creating solutions that will keep costs low," Schreiber told Axios.

• It hopes to connect higher costs to Trump administration and Republican lawmakers' cutbacks of federal support for low-carbon energy.
• The group's recent research offered voters a choice between a candidate who wants to lower energy costs by increasing clean energy production vs. a candidate who "opposed clean energy."
• It showed a 3.4% swing toward the former, according to the memo.

Friction point: LCV also wants to harness voters' ire at energy companies.

• "They're angry at monopoly utility companies, at Big Tech, at Big Oil, who are making like these record profits at a time when everything is getting more expensive for them," said Schreiber.

My thought bubble: Big Tech's inclusion in the memo is a sign of the times.

• This will be the first federal election cycle since AI data centers — and fears they're adding to power costs — landed atop the political radar.

What we're watching: The list of races where the LCV fund will be active in 2026 is still taking shape.

• But it's eyeing support for Democrats in Senate races including Ohio, North Carolina and New Hampshire, and competitive House contests in Michigan's 4th and 7th districts, the group tells Axios.

Catch up quick: The LCV Victory Fund and affiliates provided over $100 million across federal, state and local races in the 2022 cycle, the most recent without a White House contest.

• The 2024 tally was nearly $164 million, which includes the presidential race.

What's next: The group plans fresh modeling and research to target specific pockets of these "energy bill voters," and then reach them.

• It envisions a "tailored mix of paid media, via streaming services, content creators, and digital platforms such as YouTube, whose popularity has grown dramatically in recent years."

Oil prices bounced up, then fell back to open the week as traders weigh what's next after Middle East hostilities flared over the weekend.

Why it matters: The latest moves partially reverse what have been generally falling prices — with some spikes — in recent weeks.

• The market had calmed during U.S.-Iran talks on a ceasefire deal that would — in theory — open the Strait of Hormuz as the sides negotiate a nuclear agreement.

The latest: The global benchmark Brent earlier rose to about $98 before retreating to $94.85 this morning. WTI — the U.S. reference — is up less than 2% at $92.07.

• President Trump called on Israel and Iran to "immediately stop shooting" in a post on Truth Social today.
• Iran said it's suspending military operations against Israel for now.

Catch up quick: The Israeli Air Force conducted strikes on military targets in central and western Iran this morning local time, the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement.

• The strikes followed an Iranian missile attack against Israel. This is the first time Israel has struck Iran since the April 8 ceasefire.
• Earlier yesterday, Israel struck Beirut's southern suburbs in response to a Hezbollah missile attack on northern Israel, Israeli officials said.

The bottom line: The latest increase is substantial but not huge — a sign that the market hive mind sees the ceasefire holding for now, but more tenuously.

Major oil companies aren't showing interest in drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, despite White House efforts to promote a development-friendly regime.

Why it matters: Tepid bidding in Friday's lease sale — and big oil companies sitting it out completely — shows one major area where the industry is not backing up Trump's "drill, baby, drill" mantra.

Driving the news: Just two bidders emerged, snagging five tracts totaling 72,000 acres — a small fraction of the offering.

• The state-owned Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority was the high bidder for three parcels, and the independent Hex Energy landed two.
• The high bids totaled $3.74 million.

My thought bubble: It's a stark contrast to how the industry sees opportunities in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, where there's existing development and infrastructure.

• A March lease sale saw fairly aggressive interest, with high bids totaling almost $164 million and a number of high-profile companies taking part.

What we're watching: When Hex and AIDEA — which also has leases from a prior sale — may attempt to develop holdings.

• It would be a fierce legal and PR battle with environmental groups, and a future Democratic White House could also try to thwart drilling.
• But BLM Alaska State Director Kevin Pendergast, in a statement, said the sale "will bolster the state's economy and ultimately lead to additional energy production."

🔌 InCharge Energy, which installs and manages distributed energy assets, closed $46 million in funding. Go deeper.

🏦 JPMorganChase plans to buy more carbon removal credits from Charm Industrial and extend $20 million in venture debt to the startup, which stores "bio oil" underground. Go deeper.

⚛️ Fusion startup Helion says it has raised a $465 million Series G round led by Thrive Capital. Go deeper.

⛏️ Mining AI startup Terra AI closed a $20 million Series A led by Khosla Ventures and including the VC arm of mining giant BHP, CEO John Mern tells Axios Pro. Go deeper.

• Why it matters: Investors are pouring money into next-gen mining tech and domestic projects to meet surging demand for critical minerals.

🚌 Highland Electric Fleets, an EV bus company, has closed a $75 million preferred equity commitment from Galvanize. Go deeper.

• Why it matters: Interest in commercial EVs is rising as the Iran war's fuel disruptions make headlines.

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