Today's elections have high stakes for nearly everything that matters in the extended Future of Energy universe.

Why it matters: The results could spotlight which energy topics resonate with voters — and which have become political liabilities.

• Gasoline and diesel prices have been big on the campaign trail, offering a chance to see how much voter frustration over energy costs matters at the ballot box.

🔢 Data center politics: There are sharp differences between the parties, even though data centers aren't especially popular with either party's slate of candidates.

• Why it matters: The pace of the AI buildout affects power demand and emissions.
• State of play: 32.4% of Democratic candidates support moratoriums at the federal, state, or local level, compared to just 3.4% of Republicans, per Data Center Watch, which tracked hundreds of races.
• Zoom in: Meanwhile, Ballotpedia is tracking dozens of ballot measures on data centers, many of which would impose new restrictions. Ohio is a hot spot.

🗳️ Control and permitting: The outcome will affect the politics of the lame-duck session — and that means the politics of the bipartisan permitting deal.

• What they're saying: If Democrats take both chambers, "leaders might opt to wait until they hold the gavels next year to renegotiate compromises," the research firm ClearView Energy Partners said in a note.
• Yes, but: A reminder that backers of the current bill think it's folly to expect political space to write a more liberal bill that President Trump would sign, or that could even pass the Senate.
• Threat level: What if the results are very close? ClearView notes that if Trump and allies contest the results, "weeks of post-election skirmishing could complicate passage of any bill."

🗓️ The next Congress: Regardless of chamber control, don't look for many opportunities for big new energy laws if permitting goes kaput.

• Yes, but: There will be no shortage of messaging bills and positioning for the 2028 White House race. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) has pledged to bring back clean energy tax credits killed in the 2025 GOP budget law.
• What we're watching: Limited chances for common ground around nuclear power and geothermal. For instance, the wide-ranging Senate permitting bill contains several bipartisan geothermal bills that already cleared the House.

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🎒 Political lessons: The results could offer clues about where energy and climate policy are headed.

• State of play: I know, I know, exit polling is not famously precise, but it could provide a barometer of how much voters truly care — or not — about data centers.
• The big picture: It's also worth watching how candidates who made high gas and diesel prices central to their campaigns fare tonight.
• My thought bubble: Keep an eye on the performance of progressive vs. centrist Democrats. If the latter overperform, it could be another sign that aggressive climate policies won't return to vogue with Dems.
• Zoom in: Let's say, for instance, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro's (D) victory is even more of a blowout than expected. That could bolster more centrist, oil and gas-accepting candidates in the 2028 cycle (when he might run for president).

⚖️ Billable hours: If Democrats take control of either chamber, expect aggressive investigations of White House energy policies and investments, a topic we recently explored.

⚡ State utility bosses: A number of states have elections for electricity regulators, who often exert powerful control over power prices and planning.

• Zoom in: One place to watch is Georgia, where two Democratic victories would flip party control of the state's Public Service Commission for the first time in decades. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has more.

🏛️ Governors: The winners of governors' races will have a big say in everything from oil and gas development to electricity prices.

• Zoom out: S&P Global has a nice look at energy differences in several governors' races, though a number of the contests are not especially competitive.
• Friction point: One place to watch is Texas, where oil and gas interests favor incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in his surprisingly tight race against Gina Hinojosa.

Investors are closely watching elections in states with major data center projects planned, down to the makeup of local utility commission boards.

• 🎰 Why it matters: New restrictions could delay major projects and rattle the AI trade that's driving the stock market and helping power the U.S. economy, Axios Markets co-author Emily Peck reports.

Friction point: Despite more than 300 local moratoriums, U.S. data center development is moving at a blistering pace.

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📊 Crude oil prices plunged to start the week on signs of new U.S.-Iran diplomacy, but have regained some ground.

• Why it matters: While false dawns have been common throughout the conflict, traders see at least a somewhat lower temperature right now.
• Catch up quick: President Trump told Axios in a phone interview yesterday he's "in no rush" to decide whether to resume fighting in Iran. But new strikes after the midterms remain on the table.
• The bottom line: "While we've seen this before with nothing materialising, positive signals appear to be coming from both the US and Iran," ING analysts said in a note.

⛽ Carl Icahn-controlled refiner CVR Energy is buying Marathon Petroleum Corp. refineries in Minnesota and North Dakota in a $4.2 billion deal that also includes marketing assets, the companies said today.

• Why it matters: Refining is very hot right now, with crises in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushing up profits amid a global fuel crunch.
• Zoom out: "Companies of all sizes have been on the hunt to acquire more refineries to build bigger fuel-making businesses, given the almost intractable constraints in global capacity," per the WSJ, which first reported on the deal.

⚠️ New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) is warning her state's port operators that accepting Russian diesel could bring "harsh penalties, both civil and criminal."

• Why it matters: It's a new front in Democrats' pushback against Trump's diesel agreement with Moscow. Her letter follows a similar warning from senior Capitol Hill Democrats.
• What we're watching: It's unclear whether any Russian shipments will actually come to the U.S. The NYT has more.

That's the stunning drop in LNG deliveries from major suppliers Qatar and UAE so far this year, "the largest ever LNG supply shock to the global market," the International Energy Agency said today.

• The big picture: That's driving a record annual global decline, despite huge growth from the U.S. as new projects come online and other increases from outside the Middle East.

Full analysis

"If your goal is to do climate policy in the future, this is an important down payment to making progress there."