Axios Future of Energy

October 26, 2026
🔍 Capitol Hill is getting more and more curious about President Trump's diesel deal with Russia. We start there, and then move on to...
- The politics of oil earnings, revival of geopolitical risk premiums, climate tech deals and more, all in 1,105 words, 4 minutes.
🙏 Thanks to Mackenzie Weinger and Chris Speckhard for editing, and to our brilliant Axios visuals team.
🌻 The late Tom Petty dropped the gorgeous album "Wildflowers" this week in 1994, and it provides today's intro tune...
1 big thing: The coming probes of Trump's diesel deal
Exclusive: Top Democrats poised for powerful roles next year are demanding that major banks and ports preserve any records they have tied to potential imports or other deals involving Russian diesel.
Why it matters: Probing President Trump's agreement with Moscow will be a priority if Democrats regain control of either or both chambers of Congress.
- The new demand shows that inquiries will extend beyond the White House and into C-suites.
Driving the news: "[A]ny importation of Russian diesel into the U.S. raises significant legal questions and may be subject to legal action, as well as congressional investigations," a new letter obtained by Axios states.
- It's signed by Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.).
- They're in line to lead the powerful Foreign Relations, Banking, Finance and Judiciary Committees, respectively, if Democrats regain the Senate.
Rep. Greg Meeks (D-N.Y.), who's in line for the Foreign Affairs Committee gavel if House control changes, also signed.
- It's led by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), the top Foreign Relations Democrat who is not seeking reelection. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who is also retiring, signed as well.
State of play: The Wall Street recipients of Saturday's letter are J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
- The same letter went to port authorities for the ports of Houston, Beaumont, and Corpus Christi, Texas, and New York/New Jersey.
Catch up quick: Earlier this month, Trump claimed an agreement to bring escalating Russian exports to global and U.S. markets, and the Treasury Department waived sanctions to help enable it.
Friction point: The lawmakers and other critics say it runs afoul of a bipartisan 2022 law barring imports of Russian oil, gas, and petroleum products.
- "The potential arrangement to import Russian diesel also raises significant national security concerns, given that it would finance Russia's brutal and illegal war against Ukraine," the letter states.
Yes, but: The Treasury Department has repeatedly claimed the agreement is legal.
The big picture: The new letter urges the banks and ports not to enable "purchase, transportation, importation, unloading, storage, financing, or distribution" of Russian diesel in the U.S.
- It also goes further, urging the parties not to facilitate any transactions for Russian diesel to other markets under the recent sanctions waiver.
Zoom in: Citing "anticipation of further congressional oversight," it calls on recipients to preserve a wide range of potential records and communications related to "proposed or actual" transactions.
- Think contracts, shipping documents, vessel records and plenty more.
- The demand extends to any communications with suppliers, intermediaries and U.S. government officials.
- The lawmakers want confirmation by Wednesday that records are being preserved, plus details of any potential or actual Russian diesel transition.
What we're watching: It's unclear how much Russian diesel, if any, will reach U.S. shores.
- Reports Friday in S&P Global, Reuters and elsewhere identify a tanker that initially signaled a New York destination, while the shipping intelligence firm TankerTrackers on Friday said three tankers had signaled U.S. destinations.
- But ships' planned destinations frequently change for one reason or another.
2. 🤝 A huge gas deal that describes the era
Appalachian gas producers EQT and Range Resources are merging in an all-stock deal that values the combined company at north of $50 billion, they said this morning.
Why it matters: EQT's acquisition would create the country's largest gas producer.
- And it's a sign of the times. The investor deck posted today prominently features a map of new data centers in the works.
- It also points to rising LNG exports as another part of the wider, diversified sales portfolio.
What's next: The companies hope to close the transaction in the first quarter of 2027. Go deeper
3. 💵 Big Oil to show big profits ahead of midterms


Exxon, Chevron and other oil and gas giants are expected to post handsome Q3 earnings this week on the strength of high commodity prices and refining margins.
Why it matters: Timing is everything, politically anyway. The Q3 totals will land just days before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
- Look for Democrats and allied groups to seize on the numbers, tethering them to President Trump and gasoline prices.
- That's exactly what happened when oil majors posted large earnings in Q2, the first full quarter since the Iran war began.
What's next: Shell and TotalEnergies report early Thursday morning, while Exxon, Chevron and BP follow on Friday.
4. 🏃 Catch up quick on energy tech deals
🍨 Scoop: Nuclear engineering firm Holtec withdrew its IPO registration last month after operational challenges and questions about its small modular reactor business soured investors, Axios Pro has learned.
- Why it matters: It was supposed to be among the biggest energy IPOs of 2026, seeking to raise up to $900 million at a $10.2 billion valuation. Unlock the whole story
💵 "U.S.-based Applied Carbon has secured $72 million in new financing provided by Citibank that will support biochar CO2 removal operations in Texas," Carbon Herald reports.
☀️ Optivolt, an SF-based startup developing a device to improve solar panel efficiency, raised $32m in Series A funding, Bloomberg first reported. VXI Capital led, joined by RA Capital, Valo Ventures and Atlas Innovate.
5. 📈 The oil risk premium shoots up


Oil prices are back to the high levels of March as investors price in the growing risk that the Iran war will escalate.
Why it matters: Higher energy prices ripple through the entire economy, pushing up inflation.
- The recent rise in oil has also put stocks under pressure: Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined last week as prices climbed.
Last night, when the oil market opened, the price of a barrel of Brent crude for December delivery fell slightly to $115 — after closing in the previous trading session at its highest price since April.
Between the lines: The gains appear to be due to what energy analysts call the "geopolitical risk premium."
The intrigue: JPMorgan's pricing model puts Brent's fair value at just $94 per barrel, given the supply-demand dynamics in the market.
- Yet Brent is trading about $20 higher.
6. 🔋 Number of the day: 2,100 passengers
That's how many can ride on the world's largest battery-powered ferry, which made its maiden commercial voyage in South America last week, per Bloomberg.
- Built by Australian firm Incat, the vessel can hold about 225 vehicles and has over 250 metric tons of batteries, it reports.
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