Want evidence that the fragile Senate permitting deal is a certified BFD across the energy industry? Just-filed lobbying disclosures are a good place to start.

Why it matters: The filings reveal behind-the-scenes efforts by powerful interests and companies representing oil and gas, mining, renewables, environmentalists and plenty in between to shape the legislation.

The big picture: The bill title (Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act), its acronym (BAAJA) and its bill number appear throughout third-quarter lobbying disclosures.

• The bill was introduced Sept. 30, the last day of the third quarter. The disclosures, due Oct. 20, offer a window into efforts to influence the legislation during its drafting and negotiations.
• The lobbying extends beyond groups that specifically named the bill in their filings. Many others with a stake in the bill — like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers — list permitting legislation in other ways.

Driving the news: Here's just a small subset of the parties in the arena.

• Industry groups like the American Petroleum Institute, the Edison Electric Institute, the American Forest & Paper Association, the National Mining Association, and the Data Center Coalition.
• Green groups including Earthjustice, the Nature Conservancy, and Defenders of Wildlife.
• Low-carbon power trade groups such as the Solar Energy Industries Association.

State of play: The lobbying goes far beyond trade associations, with many individual companies also involved.

• They range from Chevron and BP to power giants like Duke Energy and Southern Company to geothermal startup Fervo.
• Industrial and equipment heavyweights like Caterpillar, Schneider Electric and Cummins are there, too.

Zoom in: The disclosures also offer clues about which provisions attracted lobbying attention. For example:

• The National Mining Association identified BAAJA provisions that would change Clean Water Act permitting, including state water quality reviews and limits on lawsuits challenging permits.
• The Interstate Natural Gas Association of America listed BAAJA provisions affecting interstate natural gas pipelines among its lobbying topics, alongside other pipeline permitting proposals.

Threat level: The latest filings land amid new friction over the bill.

• This week the Interior Department asked a federal judge to allow it to reconsider the Biden-era prior approval of Avangrid's planned New England Wind project off Massachusetts.
• "This is how you blow up a permitting deal," Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) told Axios and other outlets about the latest in a string of Trump team moves against previously approved projects.

Yes, but: An administration official cast the federal filing as a procedural move in the case brought by other opponents of the project.

• "Our filings defend the current government's litigating position," the official said.
• "We have been very transparent about the need for permitting reform and have also been transparent with Senator Whitehouse's and Senator [Martin] Heinrich's teams on all these legal filings," the official said, citing the two Democratic co-authors.

🆕 The latest: Democratic attorneys general from nine states express "substantial concerns" with the bill in a new letter to lawmakers, Punchbowl News reported this morning.

What we're watching: The public advocacy and closed-door maneuvering should reach a fever pitch ahead of the first procedural vote on Nov. 9, and in the days and weeks that follow.

• The next wave of disclosures, covering October-December, should provide an even clearer look at the interests at play.

Traders are betting that oil prices will remain elevated for longer than they anticipated just weeks ago, threatening to prolong the inflationary pressures that businesses and consumers have weathered for months.

Why it matters: Oil inventories have helped cushion the blow from disrupted Middle Eastern supplies, but much of that buffer has been depleted since the war began.

• The possibility of sustained price pressures into next year throws into doubt the logic that central banks traditionally rely upon to look through energy price shifts — that they represent a one-time shift in relative prices, not an ongoing inflationary process.
• That leaves the global economy more vulnerable to another energy price surge, with potentially more lasting consequences for growth, inflation and interest rates than energy shocks of yore.

State of play: Crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes, surpassed prewar levels in the week ending Oct. 18, according to the Wall Street Journal. But the costly workarounds enabling that recovery have their limits.

• Those include ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz, where security risks have deterred some vessels.

Yes, but: "You're coming up against limitations on actually how much volume you can move out of the Middle East, even with these processes," Christopher Haines, global head of oil at Energy Aspects, tells Axios.

• Restoring confidence among shipping companies and insurers that vessels won't be attacked will be "exceptionally hard," Haines adds.

Full story

⬆️ Google and distributed energy company Voltus have greatly expanded their three-year deal to provide up to 100 megawatts of resources like battery storage and smart thermostats into the PJM grid.

• Why it matters: The nation's largest grid region faces growing supply needs. Tech giants are looking to deploy clean tech solutions even as AI also boosts natural gas demand and projects.
• Driving the news: The companies this morning said they're transforming the pilot program into a much larger "virtual power plant (VPP)," expanding it by 1.1 gigawatts of capacity.
• How it works: Voltus' role is to aggregate new capacity from local businesses and homes into the Google-financed VPP. "When the grid is under strain, Voltus signals those sites, which then can use batteries, smart thermostats, industrial process adjustments and other flexible assets to reduce energy use," they said.
• The bottom line: The collaboration provides financial benefits to customers taking part in the program via power bill savings and direct payments, the companies said.

⚛️ File under "interesting but aspirational": The Nuclear Company hopes to develop a huge 6.6 gigawatt power campus in Lewis County, Kentucky, that could accommodate up to six Westinghouse AP1000 reactors.

• Why it matters: It would be the largest nuclear power plant in the country — if it happens.
• State of play: The Nuclear Company "plans to begin site development activities and pursue the federal approvals necessary to begin construction in 2028," it said.
• Yes, but: "TNC has not disclosed the project's estimated cost, financing arrangements, electricity purchasers, utility partners, or expected commercial operation date," Power magazine reports.

That's the mid-October cost of shipping crude oil from the Middle East to Asia — a whopping five times pre-war levels, per new International Energy Agency commentary on petro-freight costs.

Why it matters: "Typically, transport makes up a small proportion of the overall price of oil, but when shipping becomes more expensive, costs can mount across the supply chain," it states.