Axios Future of Energy

September 10, 2026
🐝 EPA is busy these days, so we catch up with its AI moves before diving into...
- A new coal record, AI oversight, solar data, diesel and more, all in 1,239 words, 4.5 minutes.
🙏 Thanks to Mackenzie Weinger, David Nather and Chris Speckhard for editing, and to our brilliant Axios visuals team.
🎸 This week in 1989, Aerosmith dropped the album "Pump," which finds them in fine form on today's intro tune...
1 big thing: Trump moves to ease environmental rules for data centers
The Trump administration is reshaping regulations to make data centers — and the fossil-fuel power fueling them — easier to build. Critics say the changes could increase pollution and reduce public input.
Why it matters: The moves risk inflaming an already fierce and bipartisan backlash to data centers, the backbone of the AI boom.
Driving the news: The Environmental Protection Agency is considering a rule that could treat some temporary gas turbines as mobile equipment rather than stationary pollution sources, potentially making them easier to permit, according to the Natural Resources Defense Council's John Walke.
- "We have been told by senior people at EPA that there is a pants-on-fire, hasty rulemaking proposal underway," said Walke, director of NRDC's federal clean air program. "It's being driven squarely by concern for data centers."
The intrigue: EPA laid groundwork for such a move in a January rule, saying treating portable turbines as mobile equipment could reduce permitting burdens.
- The agency created a conditional exclusion that would kick in if it later adopts "nonroad" standards for portable turbines.
- EPA also acknowledged concerns about the air-quality effects of operating many temporary turbines in one place.
- An EPA spokesperson referred Axios to the January rule when asked about the possible new rulemaking.
State of play: This possible rule is on top of at least three others EPA has proposed or developed in the last year to ease permitting procedures or environmental regulations for AI infrastructure.
- The agency is proposing to eliminate federal minimum requirements for public participation in permits for smaller pollution sources, leaving those decisions to state and local regulators.
- EPA would allow more construction to occur at data center sites before receiving permits, according to a rule proposed in May.
- EPA said in guidance this summer that power plants not connected to the electric grid — an increasingly common way to power data centers — generally aren't subject to EPA's Acid Rain Program, a landmark program restricting sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide pollution.
The White House, asked about concerns that the administration's push could weaken environmental protections or increase pollution, did not address them specifically.
- Instead, spokesperson Davis Ingle said President Trump is turning data centers into "engines of growth and opportunity" while cementing U.S. dominance over China in AI.
What they're saying: "He's attempting a wholesale bypass of environmental law," Michael Gerrard, founder of Columbia University's Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, said of Trump. "He hunts for loopholes, and when he can't find one, he punches through to create a new one."
- The Data Center Coalition, an industry trade group representing most developers of AI infrastructure, said in a statement it supports the federal push to streamline permitting, though it didn't respond to specific questions about the changes.
Go deeper: Read the full story to see how EPA's regulatory moves overlap with issues being litigated in court.
2. 🔭 Trend-spotting: Wartime coal and AI edition
📈 Global coal consumption is tracking toward a 1.2% rise this year to reach a new record of 8.94 billion metric tons, the International Energy Agency said this morning.
- Why it matters: IEA revised earlier predictions of a slight drop, and the Iran war is a big reason.
- The big picture: Throttled Middle East gas supplies and high prices are prompting more coal use in Europe, Japan, Korea, China and some other markets compared to IEA's pre-war outlook.
- State of play: The agency also pointed to the "particularly strong El Niño weather pattern," which pushes up temperatures and lowers hydropower output in some nations.
😳 Typing this feels insane, but anyway: Fears that AI could, uh, wipe out humanity or spin out of control in other ways have repercussions for Capitol Hill oversight of the tech's energy needs.
- State of play: There's suddenly lots of buzz about new forms of congressional inquiry into AI.
- Catch up quick: Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is pushing for a new bipartisan select committee with a wide mission that includes examining energy needs. And House Democrats may create a select committee if they retake the chamber, per Politico and Bloomberg.
- The bottom line: Energy isn't driving this train, but keep an eye on whether debates on powering AI get swept into any revamped oversight of the tech.
3. 📸 New cleantech snapshots: U.S. solar and global dollars
☀️ The solar industry added 11.4 gigawatts of capacity in the second quarter, a 45% year-over-year increase, the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie said this morning.
- Why it matters: The big tally reflects a scramble to get projects done before they lose eligibility for tax credits phased out under the 2025 GOP budget law.
- What's next: Lots of new solar will come online over the next five years, but permitting problems and loss of tax credits will keep overall growth flat, the report finds.
📉 Global clean technology investment fell 17% in the first half of 2026 compared to the first six months of 2025, per Rhodium Group and MIT researchers' latest tally today.
- Why it matters: While renewables and electric vehicles are climbing worldwide, global CO2 emissions are still heading slowly upward despite Paris Agreement goals that would require steep cuts to fulfill.
- Yes, but: It's a mixed picture. China accounted for most of the decline due to policy changes and its manufacturing overcapacity, and various technologies saw increases in some markets outside China.
4. 🥵 August was very hot on planet Earth


Last month was the hottest August globally in records dating back to the 1800s, and tied with July 2023 for the warmest of any month, per new data from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service.
The big picture: "August 2026 was 1.65°C above the estimated 1850-1900 pre-industrial average for the month, marking the first month above 1.5°C since November 2025," states today's report.
Catch up quick: This summer (June-August) was the hottest in the U.S. on record, per separate data yesterday from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
My thought bubble: Time was many more Democrats would focus on stark and fresh signs of global warming.
- But the topic has lost political cachet as candidates and environmental groups make energy costs the tip of their messaging spear.
What we're watching: This year through August is tracking as the second-warmest on record globally behind 2024, but strengthening El Niño conditions have some chance of bringing a new record.
5. 🚛 Number of the day: +33 cents
The Energy Department's stats arm now forecasts diesel to average $4.40 per gallon in the U.S. in 2027, which is 33 cents higher than its prior outlook.
Why it matters: Conflict in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war will have a long-term effect on domestic prices. The crises are constraining supply elsewhere and encouraging high U.S. exports.
The big picture: The Energy Information Administration's monthly look-ahead sees U.S. supplies staying below the 2021-2025 average through this year and most of 2027.
- The outlook yesterday projects retail prices averaging $5.07 for 2026, also an upward revision from last month's forecast.
- Reminder: These outlooks are an analytical snapshot of a fluid situation and revised monthly by design.
What's next: The U.S. price, already at record levels, could crack $6 within days.
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