Four years after then-President Trump seized on expected ballot-counting delays in Michigan and other swing states to fuel false claims that the election was stolen, experts warn it could happen again.

The big picture: Michigan and other politically divided states have implemented new laws and regulations to expedite ballot counts for the 2024 election.

Why it matters: Michigan is among the presidential race toss-ups where margins could be closer than 2020.

• "It is a near guarantee that Donald Trump will declare victory the night of Nov. 5 and the margin won't matter — it won't matter whether he's accurate and he actually won, or whether he was defeated soundly," David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, told Axios.

Context: Trump has called voting by mail "corrupt" but has increasingly encouraged his GOP allies to take advantage of it, if necessary. He has repeatedly dodged questions about whether he'll accept the 2024 election results if he loses.

• He's threatened to seek to imprison anyone who engages in "unscrupulous" election behavior, and he's warned law enforcement to "watch for voter fraud."

Flashback: In 2020, early returns showed Trump ahead, but as more votes were processed, Joe Biden's victory took shape.

• Michigan saw a surge of absentee voting, contributing to longer waits for election results. In Detroit, it took until the day after the election to finish counting absentees — a wait that fueled chaos and election misinformation.

Driving the news: Local election officials are optimistic that 2024 will produce quicker results. After the Democrats gained control of state government in 2023, they passed new rules to permit counting of absentee ballots up to eight days before the election and to provide more opportunities for early in-person voting.

What they're saying: As a result, the Detroit Department of Elections expects to announce results earlier than in previous years, according to a spokesperson.

• Michael Siegrist, Canton Township's clerk, tells Axios Detroit the change will yield in a "sizable shift in how we report results on election night."
• He expects to have about 90% of absentee ballots counted before Election Day begins, and unofficial results reported a few hours after the polls close. "I don't envision a world where we don't know who won Michigan by midnight," he added.

Go deeper: "2020 déjà vu: Why the 2024 election could take days to call"

A video game created in Wayne County that simulates real presidential races had to undergo unprecedented changes this election cycle.

Why it matters: Axios wrote about Plymouth-based Stardock Entertainment in May and learned about the newly launched 2024 election edition of The Political Machine, created by the 30-year-old video game maker.

• We recently checked in on Stardock again after the game, initially designed for a second Donald Trump-Joe Biden matchup, was turned upside down this summer when President Biden dropped out.

State of play: The game is underpinned by real-time political research about demographics and levels of voter enthusiasm.

Between the lines: Stardock CEO Brad Wardell tells Axios that modeling for Vice President Kamala Harris was no simple task because his team couldn't rely on past polling data for Harris, who did not participate in the 2024 primary.

• "It's a lot more guessing," Wardell says.
• Harris was previously a playable character option, but she wasn't the main focus.

The intrigue: Stardock's creators say the game's advanced simulation has had success predicting outcomes of past presidential elections, including predicting Trump as the winner in 2016.

• Wardell says the simulation shows Biden made the right call.

What they're saying: "The model was coalescing that Trump was going to win, and then when they got (Harris) as the candidate, that changed everything because the enthusiasm level is way higher now (than with Biden)," he says.

• The simulation still showed a "slight edge" for Trump before the debate, but there have been small shifts since.
• The simulation also shows North Carolina is a risk for Trump and will be a key state to win.

Go deeper: More about how Stardock's game works.

📻 Former Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick is featured in a new radio ad promoting presidential nominee Donald Trump, who commuted Kilpatrick's sentence in January 2021. The ad will run in the Detroit area for the next two weeks. (Detroit News)

🏋️ A new Planet Fitness location opened near downtown yesterday in a former Salvation Army at 1200 W. Fort St. (WXYZ)

💰 Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan and council members announced a proposal they expect would make affordable housing easier to develop, with property tax cuts for affordable rent prices. The proposed ordinance requires city council approval. (BridgeDetroit)

Rayshawn Bryant, 40, was one of two men who were shot and killed at Eastern Market on Sunday. His cousin said Bryant was trying to break up a fight when he was shot.

• The second victim was identified yesterday as Jalen Welch, 25. (Free Press)

After much pondering by the public about which businesses will occupy the coveted first floor of Michigan Central Station, a first tenant has been announced.

The big picture: Yellow Light Coffee & Donuts, a drive-through café on the east side in Jefferson Chalmers, will open a take-out and dine-in coffee shop in the newly renovated train station's arcade area, according to a news release.

• It is expected to open later this fall.

💭 Annalise's thought bubble: As I've previously written, I'm quite obsessed with Yellow Light and have probably given them a small fortune. I'll be watching out for their egg biscuit sandwiches at Michigan Central.