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Today’s newsletter is 921 words — a 3.5-minute read.

Iowa is on the verge of a farm crisis that threatens to wreck the agricultural heart of the state and hurt the fortunes of Republicans at the top of the midterm ticket, GOP strategists acknowledge.

Why it matters: Democrats could win in several once-reliably Republican states in November, but President Trump's policies have caused such severe financial problems for farmers — especially those who grow corn — that Iowa appears particularly vulnerable.

Driving the news: As his political operation watches Iowa in alarm, Trump on Monday held a White House press conference to announce plans for a massive steel plant in the state that would be the nation's largest.

• Iowa politicos note that the $15 billion plant wouldn't come online until 2030, too late to provide tangible relief to people who are hurting now.

Zoom in: Iowa farming has been difficult for years because of rising costs, consolidation trends and foreign competition. But farmers say two recent stressors are directly tied to Trump:

1. Tariffs increased costs of fertilizer, pesticides and farm equipment, and caused market instability. The related trade wars especially hurt U.S. relations with Canada, which buys about 30% of Iowa's exports.
2. The war in Iran increased the cost of diesel by nearly 80% in Iowa, forcing farmers to bleed money, consider taking loans just to survive and limit machine use to critical levels.

Between the lines: Mark Mueller, a Republican voter and president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association, said he didn't think the GOP problem is "dire" because the polls could be off.

• "People are just embarrassed to tell pollsters they voted for Trump," said Mueller, noting that "Hinson and Lahn haven't had the president out here, and Hinson is touting her independence" from Trump now that she's calling for the end of the Iran war, which she once supported.
• Hinson, though, was with Trump in the Oval Office on Monday, soaking up praise from the president.

Mueller said his farm in Waverly is "scraping by," but that "I can easily see more farmers going bankrupt or retiring. This hurts the young guys. They have a harder time getting in. This hurts the small guys."

• Interest rates are rising — an extra hit to farmers like him who finance much of their operation by taking out loans they repay after crop sales.
• "Some guys are saying they can't even leave the family farm to their son," he said. "It's not going to be like the crisis in the '80s. But it's getting bad."

Meanwhile, Hinson supporters are concerned about getting dragged down by Lahn, who has been dogged by critical coverage in liberal media outlets questioning his residency in Iowa and his farming background.

What they're saying: Lahn's campaign says voter registration trends and Iowa's conservative culture will carry the day.

• "Anytime you have three frontline House seats, a frontline Senate seat and an open gubernatorial race in a midterm, you're going to have to go out and fight for it," said Lahn's top adviser, Luke Thompson.
• "It is going to be hard," he said. "But pant-shitting is silly."

Go deeper

A 130-year-old Drake neighborhood mansion, rarely open to the public, will host guided tours this weekend.

State of play: The 1896 Captain Nicholas and Emma Johnson House is listed on the National Register of Historic Places.

Catch up quick: Johnson was a 19th-century sea captain who sailed the Atlantic and later became a prominent Madison County farmer.

• The family moved to Des Moines in the early 1890s.

The intrigue: It served as a funeral home for more than 60 years and as a monastery for about a decade before it became a single-family home again in 2009.

• It is now the residence of David Schlarmann and Shauneen Linton, who helped launch Metro Market, an early-2000s public market in the building that later became Gateway Market.

What's next: Tours are on Saturday and Sunday, and reservations are required; proceeds benefit the Drake Neighborhood Association.

♻️ The Collective, a sustainability and bulk-refill shop, is moving from Highland Park to Ingersoll following a landlord dispute. (Des Moines Register)

💉 Iowa GOP gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn says he supports ending school vaccine requirements. (KCCI)

🧾 A state audit found Iowa Department of Public Safety employees were able to approve their own timesheets, raising oversight concerns. (KCCI)

Des Moines City Council this month extended the loan of its city-owned 1841 Civil War howitzer cannon to the Iowa Gold Star Military Museum at Camp Dodge.

Flashback: The cannon once stood at General Nathaniel B. Baker's gravesite in Woodland Cemetery but was moved to the museum more than 25 years ago to prevent theft.

Context: Baker was Iowa's adjutant general during and after the Civil War, helping raise 57 Iowa regiments and becoming a prominent advocate for veterans. He died in DSM in 1876.

What's next: The loan is good until Jan. 1, 2047, with an optional 20-year renewal.

🛢️ Jason estimates he collected more than 500 gallons of water for his garden this year from the rain barrel a neighbor gifted him.

💪 Linh's reading behind-the-scenes perspectives from The Blazing Saddle's security team.

This newsletter was edited by Chloe Gonzales.